Episodes

6d ago

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this episode, Jason takes you deep into one of the most consequential — and least understood — shifts happening in aviation right now: the privacy war brewing between the FAA, public flight-tracking, ADS-B technology, corporate secrecy, celebrity security, and a century-old registry system built on transparency. For the first time in U.S. aviation history, aircraft owners can legally hide their names and addresses from the public Aircraft Registry. At the same time, anyone with a $50 receiver and a Wi-Fi connection can track nearly every movement an aircraft makes. That collision — secrecy vs. transparency — is starting to reshape how aircraft are bought, sold, financed, insured, researched, and verified. Jason breaks down why this is happening, who pushed for it, what it fixes, what it breaks, and how it could fundamentally disrupt the entire transactional backbone of general and business aviation. This is not just a policy update. It’s a structural shift with real consequences for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, escrow agents, fleet operators, lawyers, insurers, and appraisers. If you want to understand what’s coming before deals start falling apart, this is the episode you don’t skip. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the FAA’s new 2024 Reauthorization Act allows owners to hide their identities — and why that is a seismic break from 100 years of aviation transparency How ADS-B tracking turned aircraft movements into public entertainment — and a serious security risk The real-world stalking, robberies, and legal fights that forced the FAA to take privacy seriously The rise of celebrity jet-tracking accounts — and the national-security implications nobody saw coming Why foreign owners, corporations, and family offices quietly demanded these privacy reforms How public tracking data has been weaponized for business intelligence, corporate espionage, and competitive monitoring Why hiding ownership creates new problems for lenders, escrow agents, insurers, and brokers How missing registry data threatens the reliability of valuations, lien searches, and chain-of-title verification The unintended consequence: we may break the aviation transaction ecosystem without meaning to Why privacy protections must evolve faster than fraud The upcoming “identity drought” — and how the industry will need new verification standards What every buyer, seller, and broker must prepare for as the registry shifts from “open book” to “information blackout” Jason’s Truth “When transparency collapses before the industry can replace it with something reliable, we don’t create privacy — we create chaos. Aviation transactions are built on trust, and trust is built on verifiable information. Remove enough of that, and the entire system begins to wobble.” Mentioned in This Episode... Full show notes and podcasts can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. When privacy reforms and fragmented data make transactions more complex, accurate valuations and verified history matter more than ever. Know what your aircraft is really worth — and protect your deal with defensible data — at vref.com .

Dec 9

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this eye-opening episode, Jason reveals one of the least discussed — yet most influential — forces in every aircraft transaction: the broker . Not the airplane. Not the market. Not the valuation model. The broker . Using a fictional—but extremely realistic—2012 Citation CJ3, Jason demonstrates how six different broker archetypes can turn the same airplane into six completely different stories. The asset never changes. But the narrative does. And the person telling the story often determines whether a deal becomes effortless… or collapses in confusion, friction, and regret. Whether you’re buying your first piston single or your third large-cabin jet, this episode will permanently change the way you evaluate brokers — and the way you listen when one starts talking. What You’ll Discover in This Episode The single biggest misconception new buyers have about aircraft sales — and why the broker , not the airplane, dictates your experience. How two buyers can inquire about the same CJ3 on the same day… and walk away believing they saw two completely different airplanes. The “Bedroom Broker” — how enthusiasm replaces structure, and how deals drift when the captain isn’t actually captaining anything. The broker type Jason calls “the adult in the room”… and why their deals almost always close smoothly. The Boiler Room Machine — the high-volume pitch that overwhelms buyers with PDFs, pressure, and follow-ups… but rarely with accuracy. The rise of the “Self-Accredited Guru” — brand-first brokers who sell inspirational narratives instead of aircraft. Jason’s favorite archetype: the Invisible Assassin — the broker who never posts selfies, never sells hype, and always arrives with flawless logs and zero friction. The Industry Celebrity — polished, visible, connected… and often shockingly light on technical depth. The surprising reason deals fall apart — and why it’s rarely the price, the airplane, or the market. The one rule that separates elite brokers from amateurs — and why it has nothing to do with charisma. Jason’s Truth “The aircraft never changes. The logs don’t change. The gear-up history doesn’t change. Only the story changes — and the person telling that story determines whether you get the truth or a fairy tale with an asking price.” Mentioned in This Episode 2012 Citation CJ3 (fictional example) TAP Blue GTN 750Xi upgrade Doc 10 inspections Broker archetypes across piston, turboprop, and jet markets Complete show notes and podcast can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-six-brokers-youll-meet-in-aviation-and-how-they-quietly-shape-every-deal Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re navigating your first purchase or leading a complex fleet acquisition, VREF keeps you grounded in objective, defensible, data-driven valuations. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .

Dec 2

Episode Overview In this episode, Jason breaks down one of the strangest dynamics to hit aviation in more than a decade — a market that’s slowing down and speeding up at the exact same time. Total transactions are falling… yet the best aircraft are selling faster than they have in years. If you want to understand the real state of the aviation market going into 2026 — not the noise, not the headline spin — this is the episode to hear. This is the truth behind the bifurcation: a clean split between good airplanes and everything else, disciplined buyers and hopeful sellers, supported aircraft with pedigree and those quietly slipping into unsellable territory. Jason unpacks why this market is behaving unlike any cycle we’ve seen — and what it means for values, inventory, operators, lenders, and anyone trying to buy or sell in the next 18 months. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the 2025–2026 market is “separating” — not collapsing And how the entire industry is reorganizing itself around that split. Why total transactions are down 17%… but top-tier aircraft are flying off the market in record time And what that contradiction actually means. The silent panic behind the scenes as some sellers still cling to 2021 pricing fantasies The surprising aircraft segments with the biggest drops in Days on Market — including one that fell from 105 days to 49 Why turnkey aircraft with pedigree are disappearing instantly — while “projects” are becoming nearly unsellable How a G550 market that had 50+ options suddenly went to zero Why the ACJ, 400XP, and GIV markets look completely different than they did a year ago How shrinking inventory sets up a major snap-back in 2026 when rates fall Why some new aircraft are UP 12% in value… while mid-aged aircraft are DOWN 13% Why older aircraft are strangely stable — and which fleets are quietly hitting the bottom of their depreciation curve The real reason costs are exploding across the industry (and why it’s structural, not temporary) What’s actually driving the boom in regional 135 operators — and why their buying power is reshaping the entire used market Why off-market deals are rising again — and why almost every long-range sale is happening privately How lenders are thinking heading into 2026 — and why financing will get easier, but not cheaper Jason’s Truth “This isn’t a boom and it isn’t a bust — it’s a sorting market. Good airplanes are going to keep selling fast. Mediocre airplanes are going to keep dropping in price. Unsupported airplanes are going to keep sitting. And the buyers who understand that will dominate 2026.” Complete Podcast and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-weirdest-aviation-market-weve-seen-in-years/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you operate a piston single, run a fleet, or manage a long-range jet program, VREF keeps you grounded in the only thing that matters: the data. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .

Nov 25

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this Thanksgiving special, Jason steps away from depreciation curves, absorption rates, and market chaos to talk about something aviation doesn’t celebrate nearly enough: gratitude. But don’t worry — this isn’t some soft, sentimental detour. This is an episode about the real aviation world we all live in: the chaos, the beauty, the people who keep airplanes flying, the market that refuses to die, and the stories that could only ever happen in this industry. Including the true story of the time Jason simultaneously cooked a Thanksgiving turkey and negotiated the sale of a Global Express with a buyer in Turkey. Episode 13 is part celebration, part confession, part industry-wide love letter — and part reminder that aviation is still here, still resilient, and still miraculous, even in its messiest moments. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why aviation has perfect comedic timing — and an uncanny ability to humble you at the exact moment you feel invincible The overlooked everyday miracles of flying The PT6 spool-up. The sunrise on a frozen ramp. The quiet intensity of a controller juggling 18 airplanes and four emergencies. The real backbone of aviation — the invisible people who keep the entire system alive Mechanics. Line techs. Instructors. Avionics wizards. Dispatchers. Ramp crews. The people who show up long before and long after anyone else. The giant truth aviation professionals never say out loud: we are terrible at gratitude Why the aviation market simply refuses to die — even after recessions, pandemics, supply-chain collapses, interest rate spikes, and predictions of doom How passion — not spreadsheets — has kept general and business aviation unbreakable Why private aviation will always outcompete commercial airlines (and why TSA practically guarantees it) The human side of aircraft values — what every VREF number actually represents A widow settling her husband’s estate. A mechanic keeping a dream alive. A broker grinding until 3 a.m. to get the deal closed. The Thanksgiving Day Global Express story Jason has never told before How he cooked a turkey …while fielding a real-time offer …from a buyer in Turkey …for a large-cabin jet …on a holiday …with a kitchen full of guests. Why, after everything the industry has endured, aviation is still standing — tired, bruised, more expensive than ever… but standing Jason’s Truth “Aviation only works because humans show up with pride. Aluminum doesn’t hold this industry together — people do. And passion, more than economics, is why aviation is still here.”... Complete show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-13-aviation-gratitude-and-a-global-express-11-25-25 Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .

Nov 20

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation. Episode Overview In this episode, Jason pulls back the curtain on one of the most common (and expensive) patterns in aviation: the first airplane someone wants to buy is almost always more airplane than they actually need. From turbocharged SR22s to pressurized pistons with FIKI, Jason unpacks how identity, ego, and fantasy missions push first-time buyers into aircraft that outpace their experience, budget, and real-world flying habits. Instead of shaming the mistake, he explains why it happens, how the “honeymoon period” with a new airplane can wreck a budget, and what you can do to avoid becoming the person who buys their first airplane and sells it six months later in a panic. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why first-time buyers almost always fall in love with the wrong airplane —and the psychological bias behind it that no one thinks applies to them. The hidden reason the airplane you want at midnight on Controller.com is rarely the airplane you can actually live with. The “honeymoon trap” that quietly turns brand-new owners into desperate sellers within 6 months. Why many “must-have” capabilities—FIKI, turbos, pressurization—become the most dangerous liabilities when you’re new to ownership. The surprising truth about what capability actually costs … and why manufacturers market it as safety. The real reason pressurized piston aircraft vanished from modern production—and why most owners never get told the truth. How to know whether an airplane supports your flying life… or silently owns you. The SR22 Turbo dilemma—and why so many first-time buyers unknowingly set themselves up to fly less , not more. The one question that instantly reveals the aircraft you should buy (and the one you should run from). ...more The full Podocast with complete show notes can be seen here https://vref.com/news/episode-12-why-your-first-airplane-is-probably-the-wrong-airplane-11-20-25/ Jason’s Truth “Your first airplane should be built for the life you’re actually living now—not the one you’re auditioning for. The airplane that fits your mission will support you. The airplane that outpaces your mission will own you.” Mentioned in This Episode Cessna 182 Beech Debonair / early Bonanza Piper Arrow Mooney M20J Grumman Tiger Cirrus SR22 / SR22 Turbo FIKI, turbocharging, pressurization systems Warren Buffett & “No Plane No Gain” campaign Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re a first-time buyer looking at a 182 or a seasoned operator trading into a turbine, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth—before you buy, sell, or finance—at vref.com .

Nov 12

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Length: ~35 minutes Theme: Why aircraft aren’t selling — and what fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values really mean when the market slows down Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard look at what happens when aircraft stop moving — not just in the air, but in the resale market. From piston singles and turboprops to light jets, days-on-market have tripled since 2022, and many owners are still pricing aircraft like it’s 2021. Jason breaks down how to interpret real market data, why “seller expectation lag” is slowing deals, and what every owner, buyer, and lender needs to understand about fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values in today’s environment. In This Episode Why aircraft sit on the market — and how the slowdown is showing across categories The difference between Fair Market Value (FMV) , Orderly Liquidation Value (OLV) , and Forced Liquidation Value (FLV) What lender portfolios and repossessions reveal about market stress The top six reasons aircraft don’t sell — from high engine times to missing logbooks How unrealistic pricing and seller denial are distorting the market Why cosmetic neglect, outdated avionics, and incomplete records can kill a deal What owners can do now to maintain value and liquidity in a cooling market Key Takeaways The 2021 boom is over. Pricing must follow reality, not nostalgia. FMV ≠ listing price. In this market, true fair value can be 10–20% below asking. Liquidation values matter. Lenders use OLV and FLV to gauge real collateral risk. Engine time is still king. Looming overhauls attract bottom feeders, not retail buyers. Logs sell planes. Missing or incomplete documentation can erase financing options. Cosmetics count. Paint, interior, and presentation drive first impressions — and offers. Jason’s Truth “Price follows demand. Demand follows confidence. Sellers who ignore real data are the ones who sit. If you’re still pricing like it’s 2021, you’re already behind.” The Top 6 Reasons Aircraft Sit High engine times or upcoming overhauls – scare off retail buyers, attract wholesalers Outdated or inoperative avionics – upgrade costs can exceed aircraft value ...Full show notes and podcast can seen at https://vref.com/news/episode-11-when-aircraft-sit-understanding-value-in-a-slow-market-11-12-25 Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com .

Nov 4

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Length: ~45 minutes Theme: The global engine crisis—what caused it, how it’s reshaping aircraft values, and what every operator needs to do next Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand breaks down one of the biggest challenges facing aviation today: the engine shortage . From skyrocketing overhaul lead times to the myth of “guaranteed coverage,” he exposes how years of labor attrition, supply chain collapse, and OEM monopolization have created the perfect storm. If you’ve struggled to schedule an overhaul, find a loaner engine, or even order basic components, this episode connects the dots—showing why downtime is now the single biggest driver of aircraft value and why traditional engine programs may not protect you the way you think they do. With real-world data, case studies, and practical guidance, Jason walks through how operators, brokers, and lenders can survive the shortage and plan ahead in a system stretched to its limits. In This Episode How the “engine crunch” happened: COVID’s ripple effect, early retirements, supply chain failures, and OEM consolidation Why your engine program isn’t a safety net: The difference between cost protection and availability The CF34 crisis: How one accident triggered a massive industry-wide service bulletin Loaner engines and logistics: Why they’ve become nearly impossible to find How downtime destroys value: Why a fresh overhaul now adds more resale power than a program contract The top-overhaul trap: Why partial rebuilds hurt appraisals and financing The new engine economy: Scarcity, premiums, and a secondary market for “ready-to-run” powerplants Predictive maintenance: How real-time analytics are reshaping the future of reliability Key Takeaways Downtime is the new currency. The aircraft that fly are the ones that hold value. Coverage ≠ availability. Engine programs manage cost, not capacity. Fresh engines win every time. Overhauled powerplants drive sales, liquidity, and lender confidence. Transparency matters. Maintenance forecasts and SB compliance now make or break deals. Plan a year out. Reserve slots, pre-order parts, and read the fine print—before it’s too late. Jason’s Truth “Coverage doesn’t equal availability. The smartest operators aren’t just paying their hourly rates—they’re planning ahead. Because in this market, downtime kills deals.” ... Complete podcast show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-10/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com . VuPf7m4YgUcFwoYeLBxq

Oct 30

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO of VREF Length: ~28 minutes Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard, unfiltered look at the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention — the industry’s flagship event that once defined dealmaking, advocacy, and innovation in business aviation. But in an era of digital transactions, sustainability mandates, and shifting buyer demographics, is NBAA still relevant? Or has it become a nostalgic echo of what business aviation used to be? Drawing on more than three decades of insider experience — from OEM partnerships to appraisals, advocacy, and firsthand memories of the show’s heyday — Jason explores whether the industry’s premier event is evolving fast enough to meet the realities of today’s market. In This Episode How NBAA became the heartbeat of business aviation — and when it started to lose momentum Why today’s show feels more like a reunion than a marketplace The “static display paradox” — the sustainability hypocrisy no one wants to talk about The vanishing middle of the aircraft market and the industry’s obsession with ultra-long-range jets How the next generation of buyers is changing what success looks like in private aviation Why today’s wealth prefers discretion over display The Phenom 300 case study — proof that practicality still wins A blueprint for how NBAA could evolve: digital engagement, data access, and meaningful innovation Key Takeaways NBAA isn’t dead — but it’s at a crossroads. Its future depends on whether it adapts to new buyer values and modern expectations. Optics have replaced operations. Today’s trade show feels more performative than productive — and that’s a problem. The industry’s middle market is missing. Between turboprops and $80M long-range jets, there’s a massive gap waiting to be filled. Younger generations buy differently. They want efficiency, data, and discretion — not photo ops. Sustainability needs authenticity. The static display’s waste contradicts the industry’s green messaging. It’s time for a new model. NBAA could evolve into a year-round digital platform for verified data, advocacy, and true innovation. Jason’s Truth “Not every buyer wants a floating boardroom. Some of us just want a reliable airplane that gets us where we need to go without burning through a trust fund. Innovation shouldn’t mean bigger and more expensive — it should mean smarter, leaner, and built for people who actually fly.” Mentioned in This Episode NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition Embraer Phenom 300 & Praetor 500 Gulfstream G550, Dassault Falcon 7X Textron Aviation, JSSI EAA AirVenture and Sun ’n Fun VREF Online Aircraft Valuation Platform Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com . The full show notes can be see at https://vref.com/news/episode-9-is-nbaa-still-relevant-and-what-it-says-about-the-future-of-business-aviation-10-30-25/

Oct 23

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation. Topic: The messy middle between accepted offer and title transfer—what’s supposed to happen, what actually happens, how deals go off the rails, and how to protect yourself. Episode Summary Jason pulls the curtain back on the transaction phase: LOIs, deposits, pre-buys, escrow, title and liens, and closing mechanics. You’ll learn why “time kills deals,” the most common failure points, and how psychology, paperwork, and poor preparation can turn a routine purchase into a costly, month-long fight. Jason also walks through a real “deal from hell” that morphed from a 30-day plan into a multi-year headache—and the concrete lessons it left behind for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and escrow. Key Takeaways Time kills deals. The longer a transaction drags, the more uncertainty, second-guessing, and failure points creep in. Process over fairy tales. Perfect two-week closings with flawless logs are outliers; plan for friction. Paper beats promises. A clear, signed LOI is the roadmap. Without it, you’re gambling. Pre-buy is non-negotiable. Skipping it is how small problems become existential ones. Escrow is protection, not a formality. Read the agreement; demand transparency; verify ownership, liens, and title. Soft markets amplify friction. Buyers press leverage, sellers panic over carrying costs, lenders get cautious. Airplanes don’t kill deals—people do. Ego, impatience, and poor communication are the real culprits. The Ideal Transaction Flow (What Should Happen) Letter of Intent (LOI) signed Defines terms, pre-buy scope, who pays for what, defaults, closing mechanics. Sent to escrow. Deposit to escrow (5–10%) Typically refundable until technical acceptance; then it goes “hard.” Required before lender issues a funding commitment. Pre-buy inspection (at OEM-authorized or reputable independent facility) Logbook review, borescope, engine runs, oil analysis, known trouble spots. Confirms serials on engines/props/APU; surfaces corrosion and compliance gaps. More show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-8-time-kills-deals-how-aircraft-transactions-really-close-and-blow-up-10-23-25 Resources Mentioned If you’re preparing to buy or sell, don’t guess. Ground your decisions in real data with VREF Online and avoid the traps discussed in this episode. VREF Online — Real-time aircraft values, operating cost estimates, and depreciation forecasts for 900+ models. Make decisions with data, not hunches. https://vref.com/vref-online-aircraft-valuation-platform/ Listen to Past Episodes Episode page: https://vref.com/news/category/podcast/

Oct 16

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services Summary In one of the most revealing episodes yet, Jason pulls back the curtain on three of the aviation industry’s most misunderstood—and often misused—practices: off-market aircraft, back-to-back transactions, and the broker’s role in 2025. He explains why these deals tempt buyers and sellers alike with promises of speed, exclusivity, and discretion—and why, more often than not, they lead straight into confusion, inflated prices, and even fraud. Drawing on decades of hands-on experience as a dealer, appraiser, and expert witness, Jason dissects how these structures work, where they go wrong, and how a skilled broker can be the difference between a seamless closing and a financial disaster. Topics Covered The Illusion of the “Off-Market” Advantage Why exclusivity, speed, and confidentiality attract buyers. How real off-market opportunities differ from rumor-based listings. The role of trusted broker networks in legitimate private transactions. When “Off-Market” Turns Ugly The dangers of price opacity and multiple false listings. How missing serial numbers, fake mandates, and altered specs erode trust. Case examples of fraudulent transactions, missing logbooks, and hidden liens. Why buyers have fewer consumer protections purchasing an aircraft than a car. Understanding Back-to-Back Transactions What a back-to-back actually is—and why it’s often misunderstood. How they’re used to disguise markups, hide commissions, or inflate prices. Real-world consequences: lawsuits, escrow confusion, and legal exposure. The rare cases where a properly disclosed back-to-back can serve a legitimate purpose. Historical Context and Modern Parallels How the Wright Brothers’ early sales disputes mirror today’s representation chaos. Why transparency problems have been baked into aviation since its inception. More show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-7-the-truth-about-off-market-aircraft-back-to-back-deals-and-why-you-still-need-a-broker-10-16-25/ Quotable Moments “You have more consumer protection buying a dishwasher than buying an airplane.” “Transparency isn’t bureaucracy—it’s protection.” “A good broker is your shield. A bad deal is your lawsuit waiting to happen.” Listen Now Hear Episode 7 of The Truth About the Market wherever you get your podcasts, or stream it directly at VREF.com/podcast . Call to Action To explore current aircraft values and learn how real-world transparency impacts pricing, visit VREF.com . For market data, appraisals, or guidance on your next acquisition or sale, contact jason@vref.com .

Oct 8

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services Overview In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason turns the spotlight on the aviation community itself. Drawing from the latest VREF Market Sentiment Survey, which gathered responses from over 1,000 buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and operators, he breaks down what people across the industry are seeing, feeling, and planning for as 2025 comes to a close. From shifting inventory trends and rising operating costs to tightening loan conditions and the widening gap between buyer optimism and seller expectations, Jason walks through the key insights that define today’s market. This isn’t speculation—it’s a direct look at what aviation professionals are actually saying about the year ahead. In This Episode Market Mood: The community is evenly divided between optimism, caution, and pessimism—a sign of a truly transitional market. Inventory Trends: Aircraft are taking longer to sell as buyers slow down and sellers recalibrate pricing. Financing and Affordability: Interest rates, stricter LTV ratios, and higher costs are reshaping purchase behavior across all segments. Maintenance and Upgrades: MRO backlogs, high costs, and split opinions on engine programs are affecting both resale and operations. Regional Differences: U.S. respondents cite financing concerns, Europeans focus on sustainability, Latin Americans on parts and skilled labor, and Middle Eastern and Asian buyers on access to new aircraft. Buyer Priorities: Transparency, clear pedigree, fewer pre-buy surprises, and more flexible lending options top the list of what customers want most. Market Heat Map: Jason identifies which aircraft are selling fast, which are stabilizing, and which are now deep in buyer’s market territory. Negotiation Strategy: How to read days-on-market data, act decisively in hot segments, and stay patient when leverage shifts. Jason’s Takeaway “We’re not looking at a collapse—we’re looking at normalization. The frenzy is over, and the market is finding its balance again. This is where informed buyers and realistic sellers both win. In aviation today, certainty and clarity are the new currency.” Listen Now If You Want To Understand how your peers are viewing the next 12 months of the market Learn which aircraft segments are holding value and which are softening Get Jason’s guidance on pricing, financing, and remarketing strategy Benchmark your expectations against real, data-backed industry sentiment See the Full Report For charts, detailed breakdowns, and Jason’s complete written analysis of the 2025 VREF Market Sentiment Survey, visit vref.com/results .

Oct 1

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services Introduction “Can I afford that airplane?” Jason tackles the question he hears every week—moving past listing prices to the real math behind financing structures, down payments, LTV, amortization, liquidity and net-worth requirements, fixed vs. variable operating costs , and practical rules of thumb. With real aircraft examples and monthly/annual budget breakdowns, this episode shows how to evaluate affordability without getting blindsided. Topics Covered 1) Myth-Busting: Asking Price ≠ Affordability Affordability = (Upfront cash) + (Financing terms) + (Ongoing operating costs) . Airplanes are more like commercial assets than cars; regulations and maintenance make the cost stack steeper and more complex. 2) How Aircraft Financing Really Works Loan-to-Value (LTV): Typical ranges 70–85% ; older/large-cabin jets often tighter. Down payment: Usually 15–30% of purchase price (or appraised value, if lower). Terms & amortization: Commonly 5–15 years ; balloons frequent on larger jets. Rates (contextual): Recent deals in the low-to-mid 6–7% range, credit- and asset-dependent. Credit vs. collateral: Most lenders are credit-first ; collateral-based loans trade speed for higher rates, bigger down, stricter covenants, reappraisals, and faster repos if covenants break. 3) Real-World Examples (Illustrative Math) Citation (light jet), $3.5M: 25% down = $875k ; finance $2.625M @ ~7.25% / 15 yrs ≈ $23.8k/mo debt service. Add maintenance reserves/programs ≈ $10–15k/mo (contextual). Typical expectations: net worth $10–15M , liquidity ≈ 10–15% of loan + 12 months payments . Complete show notes at https://vref.com/news/episode-5-can-i-afford-that-airplane-9-29-25 Closing & Next Episode Episode 5 lays out the real math of ownership so you can answer, “Can I afford that airplane?” with confidence. Next up: deeper dives into DOC/FOC modeling and how to structure ownership (solo, fractional, partnerships) without blowing up your budget—or your relationships. Let VREF help you value your aircraft

Sep 26

Introduction A single dent can erase seven figures from a jet’s value. In this episode, Jason unpacks one of aviation’s most misunderstood—and expensive—topics: damage . Drawing on decades of appraising, federal litigation experience, and a personal war story (a Lear 45 tail strike in a hangar), he explains why damage isn’t a checkbox or a one-size deduction. It’s a nuanced blend of market psychology, documentation, repair quality, and timing —and getting it wrong can cost millions. Topics Covered 1) Why Damage Matters (and What It Isn’t) Diminution of value ≠ airworthiness. Returning an aircraft to service doesn’t erase market stigma. Emotional and reputational effects drive real pricing outcomes—especially with high-value business jets. Comparables from other asset classes (exotics, vintage instruments): pedigree and history reshape demand. 2) Core Valuation Criteria for Damage Dynamic vs. static incidents: under power/motion typically carries larger deductions than at-rest/tow events. Repair method & provider: OEM/authorized facilities and factory parts are rewarded by the market; third-tier or vague repairs increase stigma. Workscope & records: completeness, clarity, and no “pencil-whipped” entries ; missing logs create pedigree risk and amplify buyer scrutiny. Searchability & publicity: online news/photos can permanently brand an airframe, regardless of technical repair quality. Asset & market context: age, cycles, engine programs, fleet size, buyer demand, and inventory levels influence how much discount the market demands. 3) Market Cycles & Stigma Tight inventory = more forgiveness. Hot markets (e.g., COVID era) moved damaged aircraft with smaller discounts. Soft markets = bigger discounts. When buyers have choices, stigma costs more. 4) Science vs. Art Science (measurable): equipment list, repair invoices, sales history, fleet behavior. Art (buyer psychology): two identical aircraft—only one with a damage entry—rarely trade for the same number. See full show notes at .... https://vref.com/news/episode-4-how-does-damage-effect-aircraft-value/ Closing & Next Episode Episode 4 demystifies damage—what actually drives value hits and how to recover them. Next up: real-world damage war stories, deeper dives on documentation pitfalls, and how to price stigma over time. Subscribe on your favorite platform and reach Jason at Jason@vref.com if you want a case discussed (anonymized) in a future episode. Podcast theme music by Transistor.fm .

Sep 12

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services Introduction Jason pulls back the curtain on aircraft valuation—what it is, what it isn’t, and how bad inputs (or bad actors) can warp the number you’re relying on. Building on Episode 2 (bonus depreciation myths and popularity traps), this episode shows exactly how to value an aircraft and how the new VREF software makes the process transparent, defensible, and repeatable for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and insurers. Topics Covered 1) Why Aircraft Valuation Is Harder Than Cars, RVs, or Boats Small fleets, unique histories, and limited public sales data. “Comps” without context are dangerous—closing numbers rarely reveal the real configuration, condition, or concessions. 2) The Good: A Correct, Defensible Valuation Workflow Enter the fundamentals correctly: airframe time, engine time since overhaul, accurate TBO (now fully editable in VREF), program status (on/off), paint/interior condition, avionics, and STCs. VREF outputs multiple value types: Fair Market (Retail), Wholesale, Orderly Liquidation, Forced Liquidation, Inventory, Scrap —with clear use cases. What each means (plain English): Fair Market (Retail): USPAP/IRS/ASA-defined “willing buyer/willing seller” in open market—this is the everyday benchmark. Orderly Liquidation: distressed sale, broker has time to sell post-default/repo. Forced Liquidation: auction-level distress—sell fast, get what you can. Inventory Value: dealer carry-cost perspective (e.g., ~90 days). Wholesale: multi-unit discount or special-use/soft markets; use sparingly for common aircraft. Scrap (not Salvage): raw metal value if no productive use remains; salvage/parting-out is too variable for software (consulting required). 3) The Bad: Common User Errors That Skew Values Missing overhaul status or using “ top overhaul ” in the major overhaul box (don’t). Forgetting to toggle engine program coverage . Over-crediting avionics or double-counting options (e.g., Cirrus SR22 GTS options applied twice). Skipping the condition tab (leaving $50–60k on the table on pistons with fresh paint/interior). Not crediting factory reman, hot sections, or midlife on turbines. Confusing asking prices with actual market (throw out the extremes; many listings are aspirational or strategic). ... NOTE: you can see full content description at https://vref.com/news/episode-3-the-good-the-bad-and-the-manipulated-how-aircraft-valuations-really-work

Sep 3

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services Introduction In this episode of The Truth About the Market , VREF CEO Jason Zilberbrand pulls apart two of the biggest myths driving poor aircraft buying decisions: the illusion of “free jets” through bonus depreciation, and the herd mentality of chasing the most popular aircraft rather than the one that fits your mission and budget. Jason brings over three decades of valuation expertise and market cycle experience to expose the hard truths behind aircraft ownership—and why Instagram hype, LinkedIn posts, and sales pitches often distort reality. Topics Covered 1. The Bonus Depreciation Myth How bonus depreciation actually works versus how it’s sold. Why you only benefit if you already have large, predictable taxable income. The realities of debt service, operating costs, and the IRS’s recapture rule upon resale. Why jets are never “free”—and how misusing tax rules can lead to massive surprises later. 2. The Aircraft Popularity Contest Why buyers often choose aircraft based on hype, brand image, or peer influence. The long-term pitfalls of buying too big, too old, or too trendy. Why the strongest buys are often the less “sexy” aircraft—trainers, turboprops, mid-cabins—with deeper support networks and lower operating costs. How fractional operators and fleet owners dominate certain markets and leave individual buyers holding the bag when values collapse. 3. The Reality of Aircraft Ownership The hidden costs and attention that come with operating a jet. Why ownership is never just the bill of sale—it’s ongoing maintenance, crew, support, and unpredictability. Jason’s own experience with the “honeymoon period” of ownership and how quickly the bills (and mechanical surprises) add up. Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/episode-2-the-free-jet-myth-the-aircraft-popularity-contest-8-26-25/ Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com

Sep 3

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services Introduction Hi everyone, and welcome to the very first episode of The Truth About the Market. I'm your host, Jason Zilberbrand—President of VREF, long-time aviation appraiser, and someone who's spent over three decades deep in this industry. I've worked with everyone from individual owners to Fortune 50 operators. I've testified as an expert witness in major litigation. I've seen more cycles than I can count. This podcast is about cutting through the BS—no fluff, no marketing spin, no sponsors. Just the unfiltered truth about aviation, aircraft values, and the industry trends that actually matter. Today, we're tackling three big topics: The summer slowdown The impact of tariffs and supply chain issues What the back half of 2025 might actually look like The Pre-Owned Aircraft Market is Softening What everyone sees—but not everyone wants to admit—is that the pre-owned aircraft market is softening quickly. Inventories are rising across the board. Days on market are increasing. Even normally insulated categories like medium jets, light jets, and turboprops are affected. Prices are coming down. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for direction. Geopolitical instability—two escalating wars and the potential for U.S. involvement—certainly isn't helping. Beyond Geopolitics: The Bigger Picture While wars, interest rates, and stock market health are important, they don't fully explain the current shift. Looking at the bigger picture: Sales requests and financing requests are slowing. Defaults are starting to rise. This isn't the usual seasonal pattern. Seasonal Slowdowns vs. This Summer For those new to the industry, summer is often slower: Owners use their aircraft for vacations and events. Kids are out of school. Dealers prepare inventory in winter for spring sales. On the business jet side, summers have historically been so slow that brokerages sometimes closed early on Fridays. But this summer feels different—there's more going on. Post-COVID Market Cycle Typical ownership cycles run 3–5 years. Many aircraft bought during the post-COVID buying rush are now hitting the market—often at overpaid prices. Prices are correcting back to pre-COVID levels. Demand is also back to pre-COVID norms. Trainer aircraft (C172, DA20, C182) remain strong due to limited supply, but all aircraft have a natural price ceiling—when they get too expensive, they compete with higher-category aircraft. ...... Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-episode-1-8-8-25/ Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com