EPISODE 14 | The Weirdest Aviation Market We’ve Seen in Years | 12/2/25

Episode Overview In this episode, Jason breaks down one of the strangest dynamics to hit aviation in more than a decade — a market that’s slowing down and speeding up at the exact same time. Total transactions are falling… yet the best aircraft are selling faster than they have in years. If you want to understand the real state of the aviation market going into 2026 — not the noise, not the headline spin — this is the episode to hear. This is the truth behind the bifurcation: a clean split between good airplanes and everything else, disciplined buyers and hopeful sellers, supported aircraft with pedigree and those quietly slipping into unsellable territory. Jason unpacks why this market is behaving unlike any cycle we’ve seen — and what it means for values, inventory, operators, lenders, and anyone trying to buy or sell in the next 18 months. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the 2025–2026 market is “separating” — not collapsing And how the entire industry is reorganizing itself around that split. Why total transactions are down 17%… but top-tier aircraft are flying off the market in record time And what that contradiction actually means. The silent panic behind the scenes as some sellers still cling to 2021 pricing fantasies The surprising aircraft segments with the biggest drops in Days on Market — including one that fell from 105 days to 49 Why turnkey aircraft with pedigree are disappearing instantly — while “projects” are becoming nearly unsellable How a G550 market that had 50+ options suddenly went to zero Why the ACJ, 400XP, and GIV markets look completely different than they did a year ago How shrinking inventory sets up a major snap-back in 2026 when rates fall Why some new aircraft are UP 12% in value… while mid-aged aircraft are DOWN 13% Why older aircraft are strangely stable — and which fleets are quietly hitting the bottom of their depreciation curve The real reason costs are exploding across the industry (and why it’s structural, not temporary) What’s actually driving the boom in regional 135 operators — and why their buying power is reshaping the entire used market Why off-market deals are rising again — and why almost every long-range sale is happening privately How lenders are thinking heading into 2026 — and why financing will get easier, but not cheaper Jason’s Truth “This isn’t a boom and it isn’t a bust — it’s a sorting market. Good airplanes are going to keep selling fast. Mediocre airplanes are going to keep dropping in price. Unsupported airplanes are going to keep sitting. And the buyers who understand that will dominate 2026.” Complete Podcast and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-weirdest-aviation-market-weve-seen-in-years/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you operate a piston single, run a fleet, or manage a long-range jet program, VREF keeps you grounded in the only thing that matters: the data. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .