VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

4d ago

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this episode, Jason takes you deep into one of the most consequential — and least understood — shifts happening in aviation right now: the privacy war brewing between the FAA, public flight-tracking, ADS-B technology, corporate secrecy, celebrity security, and a century-old registry system built on transparency. For the first time in U.S. aviation history, aircraft owners can legally hide their names and addresses from the public Aircraft Registry. At the same time, anyone with a $50 receiver and a Wi-Fi connection can track nearly every movement an aircraft makes. That collision — secrecy vs. transparency — is starting to reshape how aircraft are bought, sold, financed, insured, researched, and verified. Jason breaks down why this is happening, who pushed for it, what it fixes, what it breaks, and how it could fundamentally disrupt the entire transactional backbone of general and business aviation. This is not just a policy update. It’s a structural shift with real consequences for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, escrow agents, fleet operators, lawyers, insurers, and appraisers. If you want to understand what’s coming before deals start falling apart, this is the episode you don’t skip. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the FAA’s new 2024 Reauthorization Act allows owners to hide their identities — and why that is a seismic break from 100 years of aviation transparency How ADS-B tracking turned aircraft movements into public entertainment — and a serious security risk The real-world stalking, robberies, and legal fights that forced the FAA to take privacy seriously The rise of celebrity jet-tracking accounts — and the national-security implications nobody saw coming Why foreign owners, corporations, and family offices quietly demanded these privacy reforms How public tracking data has been weaponized for business intelligence, corporate espionage, and competitive monitoring Why hiding ownership creates new problems for lenders, escrow agents, insurers, and brokers How missing registry data threatens the reliability of valuations, lien searches, and chain-of-title verification The unintended consequence: we may break the aviation transaction ecosystem without meaning to Why privacy protections must evolve faster than fraud The upcoming “identity drought” — and how the industry will need new verification standards What every buyer, seller, and broker must prepare for as the registry shifts from “open book” to “information blackout” Jason’s Truth “When transparency collapses before the industry can replace it with something reliable, we don’t create privacy — we create chaos. Aviation transactions are built on trust, and trust is built on verifiable information. Remove enough of that, and the entire system begins to wobble.” Mentioned in This Episode... Full show notes and podcasts can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. When privacy reforms and fragmented data make transactions more complex, accurate valuations and verified history matter more than ever. Know what your aircraft is really worth — and protect your deal with defensible data — at vref.com .

Dec 9

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this eye-opening episode, Jason reveals one of the least discussed — yet most influential — forces in every aircraft transaction: the broker . Not the airplane. Not the market. Not the valuation model. The broker . Using a fictional—but extremely realistic—2012 Citation CJ3, Jason demonstrates how six different broker archetypes can turn the same airplane into six completely different stories. The asset never changes. But the narrative does. And the person telling the story often determines whether a deal becomes effortless… or collapses in confusion, friction, and regret. Whether you’re buying your first piston single or your third large-cabin jet, this episode will permanently change the way you evaluate brokers — and the way you listen when one starts talking. What You’ll Discover in This Episode The single biggest misconception new buyers have about aircraft sales — and why the broker , not the airplane, dictates your experience. How two buyers can inquire about the same CJ3 on the same day… and walk away believing they saw two completely different airplanes. The “Bedroom Broker” — how enthusiasm replaces structure, and how deals drift when the captain isn’t actually captaining anything. The broker type Jason calls “the adult in the room”… and why their deals almost always close smoothly. The Boiler Room Machine — the high-volume pitch that overwhelms buyers with PDFs, pressure, and follow-ups… but rarely with accuracy. The rise of the “Self-Accredited Guru” — brand-first brokers who sell inspirational narratives instead of aircraft. Jason’s favorite archetype: the Invisible Assassin — the broker who never posts selfies, never sells hype, and always arrives with flawless logs and zero friction. The Industry Celebrity — polished, visible, connected… and often shockingly light on technical depth. The surprising reason deals fall apart — and why it’s rarely the price, the airplane, or the market. The one rule that separates elite brokers from amateurs — and why it has nothing to do with charisma. Jason’s Truth “The aircraft never changes. The logs don’t change. The gear-up history doesn’t change. Only the story changes — and the person telling that story determines whether you get the truth or a fairy tale with an asking price.” Mentioned in This Episode 2012 Citation CJ3 (fictional example) TAP Blue GTN 750Xi upgrade Doc 10 inspections Broker archetypes across piston, turboprop, and jet markets Complete show notes and podcast can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-six-brokers-youll-meet-in-aviation-and-how-they-quietly-shape-every-deal Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re navigating your first purchase or leading a complex fleet acquisition, VREF keeps you grounded in objective, defensible, data-driven valuations. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .

Dec 2

Episode Overview In this episode, Jason breaks down one of the strangest dynamics to hit aviation in more than a decade — a market that’s slowing down and speeding up at the exact same time. Total transactions are falling… yet the best aircraft are selling faster than they have in years. If you want to understand the real state of the aviation market going into 2026 — not the noise, not the headline spin — this is the episode to hear. This is the truth behind the bifurcation: a clean split between good airplanes and everything else, disciplined buyers and hopeful sellers, supported aircraft with pedigree and those quietly slipping into unsellable territory. Jason unpacks why this market is behaving unlike any cycle we’ve seen — and what it means for values, inventory, operators, lenders, and anyone trying to buy or sell in the next 18 months. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the 2025–2026 market is “separating” — not collapsing And how the entire industry is reorganizing itself around that split. Why total transactions are down 17%… but top-tier aircraft are flying off the market in record time And what that contradiction actually means. The silent panic behind the scenes as some sellers still cling to 2021 pricing fantasies The surprising aircraft segments with the biggest drops in Days on Market — including one that fell from 105 days to 49 Why turnkey aircraft with pedigree are disappearing instantly — while “projects” are becoming nearly unsellable How a G550 market that had 50+ options suddenly went to zero Why the ACJ, 400XP, and GIV markets look completely different than they did a year ago How shrinking inventory sets up a major snap-back in 2026 when rates fall Why some new aircraft are UP 12% in value… while mid-aged aircraft are DOWN 13% Why older aircraft are strangely stable — and which fleets are quietly hitting the bottom of their depreciation curve The real reason costs are exploding across the industry (and why it’s structural, not temporary) What’s actually driving the boom in regional 135 operators — and why their buying power is reshaping the entire used market Why off-market deals are rising again — and why almost every long-range sale is happening privately How lenders are thinking heading into 2026 — and why financing will get easier, but not cheaper Jason’s Truth “This isn’t a boom and it isn’t a bust — it’s a sorting market. Good airplanes are going to keep selling fast. Mediocre airplanes are going to keep dropping in price. Unsupported airplanes are going to keep sitting. And the buyers who understand that will dominate 2026.” Complete Podcast and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-weirdest-aviation-market-weve-seen-in-years/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you operate a piston single, run a fleet, or manage a long-range jet program, VREF keeps you grounded in the only thing that matters: the data. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .

Nov 25

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this Thanksgiving special, Jason steps away from depreciation curves, absorption rates, and market chaos to talk about something aviation doesn’t celebrate nearly enough: gratitude. But don’t worry — this isn’t some soft, sentimental detour. This is an episode about the real aviation world we all live in: the chaos, the beauty, the people who keep airplanes flying, the market that refuses to die, and the stories that could only ever happen in this industry. Including the true story of the time Jason simultaneously cooked a Thanksgiving turkey and negotiated the sale of a Global Express with a buyer in Turkey. Episode 13 is part celebration, part confession, part industry-wide love letter — and part reminder that aviation is still here, still resilient, and still miraculous, even in its messiest moments. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why aviation has perfect comedic timing — and an uncanny ability to humble you at the exact moment you feel invincible The overlooked everyday miracles of flying The PT6 spool-up. The sunrise on a frozen ramp. The quiet intensity of a controller juggling 18 airplanes and four emergencies. The real backbone of aviation — the invisible people who keep the entire system alive Mechanics. Line techs. Instructors. Avionics wizards. Dispatchers. Ramp crews. The people who show up long before and long after anyone else. The giant truth aviation professionals never say out loud: we are terrible at gratitude Why the aviation market simply refuses to die — even after recessions, pandemics, supply-chain collapses, interest rate spikes, and predictions of doom How passion — not spreadsheets — has kept general and business aviation unbreakable Why private aviation will always outcompete commercial airlines (and why TSA practically guarantees it) The human side of aircraft values — what every VREF number actually represents A widow settling her husband’s estate. A mechanic keeping a dream alive. A broker grinding until 3 a.m. to get the deal closed. The Thanksgiving Day Global Express story Jason has never told before How he cooked a turkey …while fielding a real-time offer …from a buyer in Turkey …for a large-cabin jet …on a holiday …with a kitchen full of guests. Why, after everything the industry has endured, aviation is still standing — tired, bruised, more expensive than ever… but standing Jason’s Truth “Aviation only works because humans show up with pride. Aluminum doesn’t hold this industry together — people do. And passion, more than economics, is why aviation is still here.”... Complete show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-13-aviation-gratitude-and-a-global-express-11-25-25 Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com .

Nov 20

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation. Episode Overview In this episode, Jason pulls back the curtain on one of the most common (and expensive) patterns in aviation: the first airplane someone wants to buy is almost always more airplane than they actually need. From turbocharged SR22s to pressurized pistons with FIKI, Jason unpacks how identity, ego, and fantasy missions push first-time buyers into aircraft that outpace their experience, budget, and real-world flying habits. Instead of shaming the mistake, he explains why it happens, how the “honeymoon period” with a new airplane can wreck a budget, and what you can do to avoid becoming the person who buys their first airplane and sells it six months later in a panic. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why first-time buyers almost always fall in love with the wrong airplane —and the psychological bias behind it that no one thinks applies to them. The hidden reason the airplane you want at midnight on Controller.com is rarely the airplane you can actually live with. The “honeymoon trap” that quietly turns brand-new owners into desperate sellers within 6 months. Why many “must-have” capabilities—FIKI, turbos, pressurization—become the most dangerous liabilities when you’re new to ownership. The surprising truth about what capability actually costs … and why manufacturers market it as safety. The real reason pressurized piston aircraft vanished from modern production—and why most owners never get told the truth. How to know whether an airplane supports your flying life… or silently owns you. The SR22 Turbo dilemma—and why so many first-time buyers unknowingly set themselves up to fly less , not more. The one question that instantly reveals the aircraft you should buy (and the one you should run from). ...more The full Podocast with complete show notes can be seen here https://vref.com/news/episode-12-why-your-first-airplane-is-probably-the-wrong-airplane-11-20-25/ Jason’s Truth “Your first airplane should be built for the life you’re actually living now—not the one you’re auditioning for. The airplane that fits your mission will support you. The airplane that outpaces your mission will own you.” Mentioned in This Episode Cessna 182 Beech Debonair / early Bonanza Piper Arrow Mooney M20J Grumman Tiger Cirrus SR22 / SR22 Turbo FIKI, turbocharging, pressurization systems Warren Buffett & “No Plane No Gain” campaign Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re a first-time buyer looking at a 182 or a seasoned operator trading into a turbine, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth—before you buy, sell, or finance—at vref.com .

Nov 12

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Length: ~35 minutes Theme: Why aircraft aren’t selling — and what fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values really mean when the market slows down Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard look at what happens when aircraft stop moving — not just in the air, but in the resale market. From piston singles and turboprops to light jets, days-on-market have tripled since 2022, and many owners are still pricing aircraft like it’s 2021. Jason breaks down how to interpret real market data, why “seller expectation lag” is slowing deals, and what every owner, buyer, and lender needs to understand about fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values in today’s environment. In This Episode Why aircraft sit on the market — and how the slowdown is showing across categories The difference between Fair Market Value (FMV) , Orderly Liquidation Value (OLV) , and Forced Liquidation Value (FLV) What lender portfolios and repossessions reveal about market stress The top six reasons aircraft don’t sell — from high engine times to missing logbooks How unrealistic pricing and seller denial are distorting the market Why cosmetic neglect, outdated avionics, and incomplete records can kill a deal What owners can do now to maintain value and liquidity in a cooling market Key Takeaways The 2021 boom is over. Pricing must follow reality, not nostalgia. FMV ≠ listing price. In this market, true fair value can be 10–20% below asking. Liquidation values matter. Lenders use OLV and FLV to gauge real collateral risk. Engine time is still king. Looming overhauls attract bottom feeders, not retail buyers. Logs sell planes. Missing or incomplete documentation can erase financing options. Cosmetics count. Paint, interior, and presentation drive first impressions — and offers. Jason’s Truth “Price follows demand. Demand follows confidence. Sellers who ignore real data are the ones who sit. If you’re still pricing like it’s 2021, you’re already behind.” The Top 6 Reasons Aircraft Sit High engine times or upcoming overhauls – scare off retail buyers, attract wholesalers Outdated or inoperative avionics – upgrade costs can exceed aircraft value ...Full show notes and podcast can seen at https://vref.com/news/episode-11-when-aircraft-sit-understanding-value-in-a-slow-market-11-12-25 Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com .

Nov 4

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Length: ~45 minutes Theme: The global engine crisis—what caused it, how it’s reshaping aircraft values, and what every operator needs to do next Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand breaks down one of the biggest challenges facing aviation today: the engine shortage . From skyrocketing overhaul lead times to the myth of “guaranteed coverage,” he exposes how years of labor attrition, supply chain collapse, and OEM monopolization have created the perfect storm. If you’ve struggled to schedule an overhaul, find a loaner engine, or even order basic components, this episode connects the dots—showing why downtime is now the single biggest driver of aircraft value and why traditional engine programs may not protect you the way you think they do. With real-world data, case studies, and practical guidance, Jason walks through how operators, brokers, and lenders can survive the shortage and plan ahead in a system stretched to its limits. In This Episode How the “engine crunch” happened: COVID’s ripple effect, early retirements, supply chain failures, and OEM consolidation Why your engine program isn’t a safety net: The difference between cost protection and availability The CF34 crisis: How one accident triggered a massive industry-wide service bulletin Loaner engines and logistics: Why they’ve become nearly impossible to find How downtime destroys value: Why a fresh overhaul now adds more resale power than a program contract The top-overhaul trap: Why partial rebuilds hurt appraisals and financing The new engine economy: Scarcity, premiums, and a secondary market for “ready-to-run” powerplants Predictive maintenance: How real-time analytics are reshaping the future of reliability Key Takeaways Downtime is the new currency. The aircraft that fly are the ones that hold value. Coverage ≠ availability. Engine programs manage cost, not capacity. Fresh engines win every time. Overhauled powerplants drive sales, liquidity, and lender confidence. Transparency matters. Maintenance forecasts and SB compliance now make or break deals. Plan a year out. Reserve slots, pre-order parts, and read the fine print—before it’s too late. Jason’s Truth “Coverage doesn’t equal availability. The smartest operators aren’t just paying their hourly rates—they’re planning ahead. Because in this market, downtime kills deals.” ... Complete podcast show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-10/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com . VuPf7m4YgUcFwoYeLBxq

Oct 30

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO of VREF Length: ~28 minutes Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard, unfiltered look at the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention — the industry’s flagship event that once defined dealmaking, advocacy, and innovation in business aviation. But in an era of digital transactions, sustainability mandates, and shifting buyer demographics, is NBAA still relevant? Or has it become a nostalgic echo of what business aviation used to be? Drawing on more than three decades of insider experience — from OEM partnerships to appraisals, advocacy, and firsthand memories of the show’s heyday — Jason explores whether the industry’s premier event is evolving fast enough to meet the realities of today’s market. In This Episode How NBAA became the heartbeat of business aviation — and when it started to lose momentum Why today’s show feels more like a reunion than a marketplace The “static display paradox” — the sustainability hypocrisy no one wants to talk about The vanishing middle of the aircraft market and the industry’s obsession with ultra-long-range jets How the next generation of buyers is changing what success looks like in private aviation Why today’s wealth prefers discretion over display The Phenom 300 case study — proof that practicality still wins A blueprint for how NBAA could evolve: digital engagement, data access, and meaningful innovation Key Takeaways NBAA isn’t dead — but it’s at a crossroads. Its future depends on whether it adapts to new buyer values and modern expectations. Optics have replaced operations. Today’s trade show feels more performative than productive — and that’s a problem. The industry’s middle market is missing. Between turboprops and $80M long-range jets, there’s a massive gap waiting to be filled. Younger generations buy differently. They want efficiency, data, and discretion — not photo ops. Sustainability needs authenticity. The static display’s waste contradicts the industry’s green messaging. It’s time for a new model. NBAA could evolve into a year-round digital platform for verified data, advocacy, and true innovation. Jason’s Truth “Not every buyer wants a floating boardroom. Some of us just want a reliable airplane that gets us where we need to go without burning through a trust fund. Innovation shouldn’t mean bigger and more expensive — it should mean smarter, leaner, and built for people who actually fly.” Mentioned in This Episode NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition Embraer Phenom 300 & Praetor 500 Gulfstream G550, Dassault Falcon 7X Textron Aviation, JSSI EAA AirVenture and Sun ’n Fun VREF Online Aircraft Valuation Platform Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at vref.com . The full show notes can be see at https://vref.com/news/episode-9-is-nbaa-still-relevant-and-what-it-says-about-the-future-of-business-aviation-10-30-25/