Yet Another Value Podcast

United Parks ($PRKS) owns SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, trades around 8x EBITDA with an 8%+ unlevered cash yield, and is plowing basically 100% of free cash flow into buybacks while Hill Path sits on roughly 60% of the stock. Adjust for passive holders and effective short interest lands somewhere near 80% of float; Bloomberg's short squeeze score is 93 out of 100. Hawkins Entrekin (Valyte, and the guy who pitched Vornado on this podcast right at the bottom of New York real estate) thinks you're buying irreplaceable hard assets below replacement cost, with a squeeze as the cherry on top. His fair value: low $80s against a stock in the high $40s.It's catnip to me, which is exactly why I push back. EBITDA fell from roughly $700 million to $600 million in an inflationary environment; is that Epic Universe's one-time supply hit, or a sign SeaWorld is the industry's swing capacity? Management has blamed weather in 15 of the last 16 quarters (I counted). And when a 60% owner is pushing every dollar into buybacks while attendance sits 20% below the 2008 peak, you have to ask whether this is being run for long-term operations or just for the spreadsheet.Hawkins' United Parks write-up: https://valyteresearch.substack.com/p/united-parks-and-resortsThe Trata call I used to prep: https://www.trata.com/prksThis episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense is the AI platform built for that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp.Chapters:(00:00) Intro: everything I love in a stock, and why that scares me(01:34) AlphaSense (sponsor)(02:49) Welcome back Hawkins Entrekin(03:41) What is United Parks?(04:44) The short squeeze setup: ~80% of effective float(05:50) A real estate lens on theme parks(08:36) What are the shorts seeing?(10:32) EBITDA went from $700M to $600M; why?(12:01) Epic Universe and the new-supply explanation(17:27) Weather excuses: 15 of the last 16 quarters(19:44) Capex and the asset-stripping check(24:08) The real estate angles (and OpCo/PropCo cold water)(28:19) What's the excess land worth?(30:34) Can you comp a theme park on NOI?(32:13) Valuation: low-$80s fair value vs a high-$40s stock(34:33) Why 8x when Blackstone paid 12-14x? Plus replacement cost(40:45) Hill Path at 60%: squeeze, take-private, or sale?(46:05) Attendance is down 20% from the 2008 peak(48:47) The bulls have been early for three years(56:58) What is Valyte?(58:28) Seritage, Elme, and a hard stopHawkins Entrekin / Valyte: https://www.valytedata.com/Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Ryan Bunn (Reference Equity) has a public proposal for CBIZ ($CBZ): stop buying back stock at 9x earnings and restart the M the summary is clean, but can you trace it back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove the answer? AlphaSense owns the content (over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls) and the retrieval layer on top of it, so every answer links back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavpChapters:(0:00) Intro: an activist pitch to STOP the buybacks(1:15) AlphaSense(2:31) What is CBIZ ($CBZ)?(5:01) Ryan's proposal: restart the M&A flywheel(7:44) Buybacks at 9x earnings vs. getting back to M&A(10:38) Post-Marcum, are there even deals left to do?(12:52) The AI risk: offshoring and the Big Four coming downmarket(19:24) Does AI let superstar accountants hang their own flag?(23:41) The Marcum deal: mulligan or strategic masterstroke?(28:59) Private equity competition and winner's curse(31:38) Valuation: 9x free cash flow at 3.4x leverage(40:00) Does delevering actually re-rate the stock?(45:47) Management, the board, and alignment(49:58) Why issue equity now? The FMC example(56:57) Ryan's real ask: end the muddled capital allocation(57:38) WrapRyan Bunn / Reference Equity: https://cbizflywheel.com/Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Adam Wyden runs one of the most concentrated books I know, and he came on to make the case for two stocks the market has basically left for dead: Stagwell ($STGW) and Driven Brands ($DRVN). On Stagwell, his pitch is that this is not a dying ad agency but a marketing-services and data business compounding toward $700M of EBITDA by 2028, sitting at a 20%+ free cash flow yield because it came public through a no-fanfare reverse merger and carried a dual-class and TRA overhang that kept institutions out. On Driven, he thinks the sum of the parts (Collision, Autoglass, and a 50-year-old franchise stub around Take Five) is worth far more than a low-teens stock, and he has been loud enough about it that the company started disclosing numbers within 48 hours of one of his letters.I push back on both. On Stagwell I keep coming back to the agency model itself: WPP, IPG and the rest have trailed the S&P for 20 years because the human capital walks out the door every night and takes the economics with it, and AI arguably makes that worse. On Driven I press him on why a business this cheap has stayed cheap for four years running, and whether the corporate cost and the leverage ever get fixed without a private-equity owner. Adam's answer, more or less: the market doesn't care until it cares, and the best money he has ever made is buying someone else's five-year pain right before the aha moment.This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities and one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT, so you can pipe real-time fundamental data straight into your LLM. I signed up with my own money to plug it into my Claude cowork setup: more than 20 years of statements, ratios, segments and KPIs, updated within minutes of earnings, not days. Use my link fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off.Chapters:(00:00) Intro: Adam Wyden and two names, Stagwell and Driven(02:44) Stagwell $STGW: the bull case on a marketing-services roll-up(05:00) Mark Penn and how modern Stagwell came together(08:40) Does AI break the ad agency model?(12:50) The data moat and Stagwell's agentic operating system(19:00) Is Stagwell a jockey bet on Mark Penn?(24:20) Free cash flow, buybacks, and a stock priced to die(28:20) Undervalued for four years: what is the market missing?(32:15) Adam's activist stake and the August 14th tease(37:00) Driven Brands $DRVN: the auto aftermarket bull case(41:30) EVs vs ICE and why the aftermarket keeps compounding(45:20) Sum-of-the-parts: Collision, Autoglass, and the franchise stub(51:30) Activism at Driven, Roark, and where this business belongs(58:30) Closing: the AI losers that become AI winnersLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

$VEON trades like a busted emerging-markets telecom, but it owns 84% of Ukraine s Kyivstar and a Pakistani fintech, JazzCash, that already moves 15% of the country s GDP. Samit Umatiya of UIG Funds lays out the sum-of-the-parts case for why the holdco could be worth roughly 4x today s price, and Andrew pushes back hard the whole way: a not-so-storied history of value destruction, a sanctioned 45% shareholder, capital controls, and a long graveyard of telecoms that bungled every growth opportunity they ever had. The result is one long push and pull on whether the upside is real this time.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with a web terminal plus a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamentals straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Andrew uses it himself. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 The setup: a sum-of-the-parts EM telecom nobody talks about01:31 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai02:35 Who is Samit Umatiya and what is VEON04:19 Vimpelcom to VEON: the history and the Russia exit08:14 Why is the market asleep on this name?11:31 The sum of the parts: Kyivstar plus four frontier markets13:59 Bridging the EV gap: Andrew s $8B vs the bull s $3B holdco16:36 Valuing a telecom on revenue: the it s a tech company case17:54 JazzCash: 15% of Pakistan s GDP, never independently valued21:00 The bridge to ~$1B of free cash flow and a 4x23:40 Organic vs. bolt-on digital growth24:34 Capital controls and getting cash out of the op-cos27:11 What the market is missing: demographics and under-penetration31:09 Starlink: competitor or partner in Ukraine s rebuild?35:31 Digital stickiness and retention37:42 The Kaspi problem: a dominant super app that never re-rated39:25 The AI 1440 strategy and a sovereign-AI moat42:31 Is telecom just structurally bad at capturing growth?45:11 Capital allocation and the next catalyst: a JazzCash spin49:38 The elephant in the room: LetterOne s sanctioned 45% stake54:05 Geopolitical turmoil as a feature, not a flaw55:24 Is that 45% block actually an opportunity?57:09 Founder DNA, CEO Kaan Terzioglu, and the spin-off playbook1:01:56 WrapUIG Funds (Samit Umatiya) - https://uigfunds.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

MSA Safety ($MSA) is the OG pick and shovel of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the canary that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA s owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?Team MSA s pitch deck is linked here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gv1oj18pawqrmeq7lai4j/MSA-Pershing-Square-Challenge-vYAVP.pdf?rlkey=8l5vkpkr7r26oi0k7wx5fcf0h st=g4ow2fxo dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata: trata.com. Trata is recorded, anonymized conversations between two buysiders who actually follow the same company, about an hour each, with a full transcript. When you are getting up to speed on a name, there is nothing like hearing two people who research it talk it through. Check them out at trata.com.Chapters:00:00 A quality compounder hiding at a market multiple01:24 Sponsor: Trata02:47 Meet Team MSA: EJ, Craig and Bob05:50 Why they picked MSA: an underfollowed, simple business07:50 What MSA is: the OG pick and shovel of worker safety10:24 The three segments, and why detection leads11:51 Fixed vs portable gas detection13:15 The subscription shift: the canary that sings to the whole worksite16:40 The moat: durability, owned sensors and a long replacement runway17:21 Market share, and why Blackline got taken private21:32 Fire safety: the G1 and the mandated SCBA replacement cycle23:38 Valuation: a double to ~$350 by 2030, and the reverse DCF25:43 My pushback: a 20x compounder that doesn t scream alpha27:00 Why management sandbags the connected and SCBA upside28:46 A stock for the patient: the J-curve and the long horizon31:47 Primary research: site visits, IR access and r/firefighting36:18 Becoming a tech company: 40% of engineers now in software38:10 The tier-one halo: win LA or Memphis, win the region42:08 Capital allocation: the liability divestiture, dividends and a $500M buyback44:13 Wrap: where to find the team and the deckTeam MSA (Columbia Business School): pitch deck linked aboveLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Fox s stock is down about 25% since it agreed to buy Roku for $22 billion, and the market has decided the deal is a blunder. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong. His case: Roku controls roughly 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, about 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the front door to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs in North America. Look under the surface and the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you account for Roku s barely-tapped ad levers and synergies.We get into the homepage that became the new Netflix homepage, why Fox keeps making the smartest M A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like true value stocks to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.See Simeon s post on Fox / Roku here: https://www.accruedint.com/p/the-strait-of-roku-how-fox-seizedThis episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone s telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody s telling you which tools actually give you an edge. I m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process.Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP utm_medium=sponsored utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What s coming: Fox-Roku, plus Spotify, Google and Meta01:08 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense02:24 Guest intro: Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest03:05 The Fox-Roku deal and why Simeon thinks it makes sense05:30 Roku as the Strait of Hormuz of streaming (44% of viewing)06:25 Why Fox has the smartest M A team in media07:55 Buying the front door : ~100M connected TVs10:03 The Roku homepage as the new Netflix homepage 13:44 The ad-sales levers hiding under the multiple16:31 Valuation: 22x EBITDA, ~16-17x free cash flow with synergies18:01 My pushback: Fox down 25%, winner s curse, thin synergies19:35 The real risk of staying pure-play (Viacom, Paramount)24:51 Rebundling and why everyone s partnered up by 202826:08 Is Fox+Roku actually better, or could anyone have bought this?28:01 Cord-cutting, YouTube TV, and the Disney bloody nose32:07 The Fox bet Simeon likes most: Tubi38:30 Why now? The 50% streaming inflection and a shrinking buyer pool42:21 Does AI slop break or boost the distribution thesis?48:06 The gotcha: bullish Roku, bearish Spotify (the Pokemon theory of media)52:22 Google and Meta as true value stocks 56:55 The complexity discount, Meta s enterprise tools, and founder control59:13 Wrap and where to find Accrued InterestSimeon McMillan / Accrued Interest: https://accruedinterest.substack.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's on the menu this month02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic)09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG)11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX)20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing)25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter32:02 My three-year rule32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet37:36 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it s an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an emerging market (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone s telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody s asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I m sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you re trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won t want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP utm_medium=sponsored utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation22:00 The buybacks kill liquidity myth25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption01:05:38 ClosingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending dark arts signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn t paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad s frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP utm_medium=sponsored utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsDisclosure: long DCH and NOMDChapters:0:00 Two cheap special situations and the dark arts setup1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$69:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $1215:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day47:37 Addback city : cleaning up the earnings number50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone s seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary seven cancer cases collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn s skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew s upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters:00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors02:33 The biotech GOAT returns03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case24:45 Why it s statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database33:57 Bear case: hasn t the market had time to digest this?38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $10040:32 The Crohn s readout and the skew45:36 M A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO s Cincor parallel01:12:10 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it s the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can t take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3 st=rq9nzl4h dl=0This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you ll like Trata. Check it out at trata.comChapters:00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar01:00 Sponsor: Trata02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID34:21 The air-distribution network effect35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody s pricing49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary51:02 Closing thoughtsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor s job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew s monthly ramble across five things he can t stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 Five things I m rambling on this month01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai03:16 We ll never have problems again : a market that won t quit04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations09:54 Five stocks, half the S P s gains10:51 Is AI coming for the investor s job?13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take20:04 Why the cycle is dead always worries me21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small oneLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next protein fad waiting to be disrupted.CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q e=2 st=0s4tiwjy dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celhChapters:0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion1:13 Sponsor: Trata2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal12:26 Andrew s pushback: don t loyal buyers just order in bulk?16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage43:38 Wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Team Baker Hughes, the second-place finishers in the 2026 Pershing Square Challenge, discuss their Baker Hughes thesis and why they believe the market hasn t fully appreciated the company s evolution from a cyclical oil field services business. They discuss how the long runway for the IET business, and they back their thesis up with 30+ expert calls, a trip to the Western Turbine Users conference, and a sum-of-the-parts case that leans on growth, not multiple expansion.See the team s full pitch deck hereThis episode is sponsored by Trata. Check them out at https://www.trata.comChapters0:00 Intro and sponsor2:21 Meet Team Baker Hughes4:39 Why they backed into Baker Hughes6:56 Watching the stock run from $45 to $65 mid-pitch7:21 The differentiated work: 30+ expert calls and the turbine conference8:27 The two businesses: oil field services vs. industrial energy technology10:10 What the market is missing on the IET transformation12:56 Is this just another cycle? The chart hit $65 three times13:59 Why this gas turbine cycle is structurally different17:01 AI as a distraction: onshoring and electrification17:51 The installed base flywheel and recurring service revenue21:13 The three turbine segments and the supply chain squeeze23:34 Honoring 70-year customers vs. mercenary pricing27:44 Valuation: a sum-of-the-parts story, not a multiple story29:36 The Chart acquisition: can they really double their money?34:56 The GE merger history and the GE Aero Alliance today38:27 Management, alignment, and insider ownership42:41 The C3 AI anecdote and wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The winners of the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 discuss their Doordash pitch, including why the growth story still has room to run (and the 90 primary research calls they made to back up that call). We get into durable US restaurant growth, why new verticals and international could inflect to profitability earlier than the street models, the underappreciated opex leverage, their proprietary Wolt case study, the Tony Xu bet, and why they think the Citrini AI-agent thesis on DoorDash is overblown.This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check out their DASH transcript at https://www.trata.com/dashTeam DASH presentation: ZK s LinkedInAaron s LinkedInElliot s LinkedInChapters00:00 The Pershing Square Challenge and team DoorDash01:14 Sponsor: Trata02:50 Meet the team: ZK, Elliot, and Aaron05:40 Why they picked DoorDash out of the screen10:10 The bull case in three parts11:20 US restaurant growth: still the middle innings?13:20 Demographics as a tailwind17:50 Order frequency and the China comp21:00 Valuation: $70B cap, adjusted EBITDA, and the path to $32025:35 The real downside: competition, Amazon, bundled memberships29:50 The ~90 primary research calls33:35 New verticals and the grocery economics38:10 A DoorDash bet or a Tony Xu bet?41:40 Management comp and alignment43:45 International: the Wolt case study and Deliveroo47:00 The tech-stack reinvestment cycle51:00 Sylvie makes her podcast debut51:20 Citrini and the AI-agent threat56:20 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

James Elbaor of Marlton makes the case that $PSUS will trade at a premium to NAV instead of the typical closed-end fund discount and that $PS will ultimately trade at a premium multiple to peers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Carlyle given its lean team and advantaged fee structure. We push on every part of that, including whether Ackman s portfolio is just an expensive S P hug, why London still doesn t fully credit him, and whether Spark gives Pershing a real path into Universal Music Group.Sponsor: Fiscal.ai. Real-time fundamental data for global equities, plus one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/yavChapters:0:00 Intro and the divergent thesis1:05 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai2:20 Marlton s lens on closed-end funds and UK trusts5:00 $PSUS: scale, structure, why it s already the largest US equity CEF7:30 The case for a premium to NAV instead of a 15 to 20% discount12:30 $PSUS vs $PSH London: who can own what, and why it matters15:20 The 40-Act book and Ackman s macro hedging history17:50 Track record with and without the COVID hedge22:00 Why London still does not fully credit Bill23:50 But isn t it just Google, Amazon, Meta? — the index-hug pushback26:00 Can Pershing get private assets (Spark, HHH-style deals) into $PSUS29:00 $PSCM valuation: 30x FRE and the bridge from $300M to $550 to $590M36:00 Why $PSCM should deserve a premium multiple to KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl42:30 Preferred performance fees and why the income statement is cleaner45:30 Alignment: insiders own 85%+48:00 Permanent capital vs six-year permanent capital at the alts49:40 50 employees at $PSCM vs 2,200 at Carlyle52:00 Keyman risk on Bill and Ryan Israel s role58:30 What s next: $UMG, Vincent Bolloré, and Spark as the vehicle1:02:00 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVNKyle s late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement[00:23:22] The cash adjustment[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution[00:53:26] Roark Capital s strategic options[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle s watching[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrialsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty s long history of value that never quite shows up.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season04:49 Rich s bull case for $LBTYK07:46 Andrew on management credibility09:05 Why a spin can unlock value11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path17:14 Operational deterioration risk19:52 Ziggo s subscriber losses24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record27:46 The Liberty Global board problem31:22 The growth investment portfolio32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio36:43 Formula E and venture exposure38:35 The empire-building risk40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition targetLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comStock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.comLegal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research s Leo Trudel argues that s a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin high-value solutions, and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo s view.[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome[00:03:08] Stevanato s business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren t interchangeable[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat[00:29:42] What could break the bull case[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes[00:32:41] Industry structure and M A outlook[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo s stanceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview[00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained[00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff[00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate[00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion[00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage[00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns[00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks[00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation[00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed[00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact[00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised[00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues[00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst[00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty[00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed[00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks[00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption[00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations[00:46:55] Criticism of board incentivesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chad Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chad outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and Chad Garcia returns[00:04:07] LandBridge overview and investment thesis[00:05:26] History of land royalty businesses[00:08:57] TPL business model breakdown[00:13:21] LandBridge business and revenue streams[00:16:11] Valuation comparison versus TPL[00:17:21] Market skepticism and short thesis[00:20:59] Incremental pore space growth potential[00:24:27] Sponsor ownership and insider alignment[00:26:50] Structure and related party concerns[00:29:12] Acquisition strategy and value creation[00:31:30] Strategic land positioning explained[00:36:01] Competitive advantages in pore space[00:39:37] Data center opportunity in Permian[00:43:38] Challenges to data center deployment[00:46:42] Valuation framework and growth outlook[00:48:36] LandBridge versus WaterBridge comparison[00:49:31] Secure Energy acquisition overview[00:51:06] Waste thesis validation discussion[00:55:35] Reaction to acquisition valuation[00:58:16] Market education still ongoing[01:01:12] Closing thoughts and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the SaaSpocalypse . Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.Marcelo s memos on softwareMemo 1: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-softwareMemo 2: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software-part-ii_________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and SaaS apocalypse topic[00:02:24] Disclaimer and setup discussion[00:03:26] SaaS selloff and market reaction[00:07:58] AI disruption concerns raised[00:10:09] Valuation compression and risk pricing[00:14:24] Salesforce adoption timing shifts[00:16:09] Incumbents’ advantage and feedback loops[00:20:57] Headless software and interface changes[00:22:29] Backend value versus frontend control[00:27:02] Historical analogy with Slack usage[00:29:22] Insider buying skepticism discussion[00:34:36] Power law dynamics in SaaS[00:35:53] Company earnings and AI impact[00:36:36] Adobe Lightroom AI example[00:40:11] Bloomberg replacement with AI tools[00:42:25] AI tooling limitations and costs[00:46:02] Bugs and reliability challenges[00:47:24] Preferred SaaS companies discussed[00:51:28] Stock compensation and dilution concerns[00:55:59] AI productivity and hiring dynamics[00:56:27] Opposing view on engineer demand[00:59:16] AI increasing work intensity[01:00:23] Enterprise software reliability moat[01:04:49] AI as infrastructure layerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.You can see Tolu s DKNG write up here___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvementLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.Check out fiscal.ai here: fiscal.ai/?via=yav______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and monthly ramblings[00:01:02] Call for ratings and subscriptions[00:01:37] Sponsor discussion and product usage[00:02:40] Overview of April discussion topics[00:04:35] SaaS selloff and valuation concerns[00:07:10] AI impact on SaaS demand[00:08:03] Software terminal value concerns[00:08:54] SaaS as difficult investment category[00:10:16] Importance of differentiated investment edge[00:12:09] AI risks to investing careers[00:13:32] Idea of hedging AI exposure[00:14:29] Meta stock option implications[00:15:54] Rationale for big tech hedges[00:17:18] Thoughts on leap options strategy[00:18:33] Pattern recognition in investing[00:20:09] When pattern recognition becomes harmful[00:21:35] Balancing experience versus laziness[00:22:21] AI and pattern recognition limitations[00:23:33] Market adaptation to investor behavior[00:25:08] Potential AI investing weaknesses[00:26:48] Using AI tools in research[00:28:36] Emotional challenges in investing[00:29:18] Missed Avis investment opportunity[00:30:24] Frustration from missed gains[00:31:08] Balancing emotions and discipline[00:32:28] Closing remarks and sign-offLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Jingshu Zhang from Guinea Value about Fiserv (FISV) and the broader payments sector. They examine the recent drawdown across payment companies, addressing concerns around AI disruption, regulation, and macro pressures. Jingshu outlines Fiserv’s business structure across financial institutions and merchant solutions, while detailing the impact of leadership changes and operational missteps under prior management. The discussion highlights the ongoing strategic reset, new executive hires from JPMorgan, and extensive on-the-ground research into Clover’s positioning. They also debate capital allocation, insider alignment, activist involvement, and valuation, exploring whether Fiserv represents a turnaround opportunity or a declining legacy asset.See Shu's substack here: https://jingshu.substack.com/See Trata's FISV transcript here: https://www.trata.com/fisv___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest background[00:03:56] Payments sector under broad pressure[00:05:32] Market fears impacting payment companies[00:06:51] AI risks debated in payments[00:11:38] Structural advantages protect payment networks[00:12:49] Capital allocation concerns across peers[00:17:19] Fiserv business segments overview[00:18:59] Leadership change and prior mismanagement[00:24:23] Strategic reset and growth normalization[00:27:49] Variant perception and investment thesis[00:28:50] New executive team and talent inflow[00:34:55] Clover positioning versus competitors[00:36:20] Field research from restaurant interviews[00:42:01] Valuation framework and earnings outlook[00:46:14] Insider alignment and incentives discussion[00:53:34] Organizational culture and employee sentiment[00:58:30] Activist involvement and strategic optionsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Sean Emory of Avory & Co analyzes Clear Security, a biometric identity platform operating in airports nationwide. They examine the company’s subscription model, competitive positioning against TSA and airlines, and the impact of recent TSA disruptions on demand. The discussion covers Clear’s pricing power, partnerships with credit card providers like Amex, and the durability of its airport footprint. Sean also outlines a developing enterprise identity segment and its potential role in future growth. The conversation addresses valuation, risks, and whether Clear’s moat can sustain long-term returns. ___________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Clear Security debate[00:03:54] Clear explained: biometric airport platform[00:07:11] Growth limits and line congestion[00:10:00] TSA PreCheck economics and strategy[00:14:04] Competition from TSA and airlines[00:18:15] Airport partnerships and revenue sharing[00:23:12] Market missing enterprise identity opportunity[00:28:48] Debate on enterprise business significance[00:34:11] TSA disruption impact on stock[00:39:36] Valuation and growth assumptions[00:43:24] Pricing power and customer behavior[00:49:21] Amex partnership risks and dynamics[00:56:12] Capital allocation and cash usage[01:00:56] Long-term identity and AI implicationsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Andy Summers, CIO of Summers Value, to discuss Theravance (TBPH; disclosure: long). Both share their perspectives as shareholders while examining the company’s setup following a failed Phase 3 trial. They break down Theravance’s remaining asset, the COPD drug Yupelri, and its long-term royalty potential. The discussion covers the company’s balance sheet strength, cost reductions, and ongoing strategic review process. Andy outlines valuation assumptions, including U.S. royalties, China opportunity, and tax attributes, while also assessing potential buyers and deal dynamics. They also explore downside scenarios if a sale does not occur and why the situation presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile.___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and sponsor mention[00:02:41] Overview of Theravance business model[00:05:02] Phase three failure stock decline[00:06:56] Activist involvement and ownership concentration[00:09:01] Strategic review process and acceleration[00:09:49] Breakdown of balance sheet and cash[00:12:49] Discussion on downside protection and sizing[00:14:11] Yupelri drug positioning and growth[00:15:59] Patent protection timeline through 2039[00:17:13] Valuation of royalty stream[00:18:08] Sum-of-parts valuation discussion[00:18:49] China opportunity and royalty upside[00:24:22] Strategic buyers and acquisition dynamics[00:28:22] Concerns about limited bidding competition[00:30:57] Potential alternative buyers and synergies[00:35:08] What market may be missing[00:35:57] Ireland tax asset potential value[00:38:03] Scenario if company not sold[00:41:30] Potential management change outcomes[00:43:22] Asymmetric risk reward summary[00:44:24] Timing expectations for potential dealLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Roderick van Zuylen of Nightwatch to analyze Marex (MRX), a futures commission merchant operating in a consolidated financial infrastructure space. Roderick explains how Marex facilitates derivatives trading for clients like airlines and hedge funds, while benefiting from rising trading volumes and industry consolidation. The discussion covers Marex’s strong returns on equity, acquisition-driven growth strategy, and competitive positioning versus peers like StoneX. They also address risks, including credit exposure, interest rate sensitivity, and a recent short report. The episode highlights why Marex may continue compounding earnings through both organic and inorganic growth.Roderick's twitter: roojoo3Night Watch's website: NightWatchIM.com______________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:03:56] What Marex actually does[00:05:05] Industry consolidation and competitors[00:07:43] Credit risk and downside scenarios[00:10:06] FCM role explained simply[00:11:49] Why ROEs are high[00:13:57] Acquisition-driven growth strategy[00:15:12] Market mispricing and valuation[00:17:24] Private equity overhang concerns[00:19:21] M&A execution and integration[00:22:28] Switching costs and customer stickiness[00:24:24] Why acquisitions are cheap[00:26:31] Industry structure and limited buyers[00:28:19] Volatility and revenue dynamics[00:29:46] Goldilocks volatility discussion[00:32:59] Buybacks and capital allocation[00:34:32] Short report overview[00:35:11] Key allegations addressed[00:38:29] Cash flow concerns explained[00:41:10] Company response to short report[00:42:28] Real-world business validation[00:43:41] Valuation and upside potential[00:45:43] Key risks and interest ratesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns with his monthly solo ramblings covering several themes shaping current markets. He starts by discussing recent volatility and why markets feel inconsistent despite relatively modest index declines. Andrew then explores how long-term tailwinds in software and growth investing may have influenced investor track records over the past decade. He also revisits his three-year rule for evaluating stagnant investments, examining its limitations in cyclical sectors. The episode closes with a discussion on position sizing, emphasizing the need to re-underwrite positions after large price moves and avoid inertia when fundamentals change.________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and volatile market overview[00:00:47] Software investing and track record concerns[00:01:40] Three-year rule and exceptions[00:01:56] Position sizing after major moves[00:05:08] Markets feel inconsistent and strange[00:08:04] SaaS and growth investing tailwinds[00:09:43] Track records shaped by favorable cycles[00:13:49] Revisiting and questioning three-year rule[00:15:58] Cyclical tailwinds impacting outcomes[00:17:00] Value creation versus timing importance[00:19:49] Position sizing mistakes and inertia[00:22:52] Re-underwriting after losses[00:24:15] Risk management and cost limitsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Adam May, a physician, dermatologist, and biotech investor, about how he built an edge in small- and mid-cap biotech. Adam walks through his path from medical school investing to launching a small biotech fund during the 2021 peak, then explains how he sources ideas, studies trial data, and looks for situations where the market is missing something important. The conversation focuses on NKTR and ABVX, including trial design, maintenance data, market skepticism, buyout setups, and how Adam thinks about risk, beta, and asymmetric upside in biotech.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Adam[00:02:44] Adam’s biotech investing background[00:07:16] Alpha versus biotech beta[00:09:51] Finding edge in biotech[00:17:01] How Adam sources ideas[00:20:49] Handling concentrated biotech positions[00:22:59] Biotech drawdown created opportunities[00:24:49] NKTR thesis and setup[00:27:53] Lilly data analysis mistake[00:29:34] Why drugs miss patients[00:30:34] Eczema need remains large[00:33:55] Trial nuance drove conviction[00:36:11] Reverse split scared investors[00:37:14] NKTR rerating after data[00:41:21] Why maintenance data mattered[00:43:32] Buyout versus commercialization path[00:45:17] Alopecia setup in NKTR[00:52:25] ABVX background and skepticism[00:55:00] Maintenance data built conviction[00:58:54] The killer ABVX slide[01:01:50] Why ABVX looks acquirable[01:08:11] ABVX maintenance data ahead[01:11:27] Andrew closes the episodeLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Chris Paryse breaks down Ferrellgas (FGPR), a propane distributor emerging from a complex post-bankruptcy structure. The conversation focuses on the recently completed Class B to Class A unit conversion, which significantly increases free float and simplifies the capital structure. Chris explains how the company generated cash flow to eliminate legacy obligations and outlines a potential path toward reinstating dividends. They also discuss leverage, preferred securities, and the opportunity for valuation re-rating through relisting and improved liquidity. The episode highlights both the financial engineering aspects and the operational realities of a stable but low-growth propane business. Chris's twitter: https://x.com/CParyse86296___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Ferrellgas situation overview[00:03:47] Business model explained simply[00:06:31] Class B conversion mechanics[00:08:38] Dilution and free float impact[00:10:49] Capital returns outlook discussed[00:11:26] Free cash flow breakdown[00:15:08] Preferred structure and leverage[00:17:41] Valuation and leverage debate[00:18:59] Relisting catalyst potential[00:20:07] Ownership and alignment concerns[00:23:24] M&A and consolidation strategy[00:30:02] Business segment deep dive[00:35:45] Commodity risk explained[00:37:54] Key catalysts summary[00:42:10] Private equity possibility discussed[00:45:03] Closing thoughts and contactLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest about the shifting media landscape and recent industry restructurings. Simeon brings experience from inside major media companies, offering a perspective on how traditional networks, streaming platforms, and sports rights are shaping valuations across the sector. The conversation examines Comcast’s Versant spin-off, the positioning of assets like Bravo and other entertainment channels, and how investors should think about cable decline versus streaming economics. Andrew and Simeon also discuss incentives behind corporate restructurings, the quality of assets being separated, and what could drive value creation or destruction. Throughout the discussion they analyze media strategy, market narratives, and how investors can interpret these evolving industry dynamics.See a replay of my AlphaSense media webinar here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/paramounts-acquisition-of-wbd-and-the-reshaping-of-the-streaming-market/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_03-10-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-Netflix-WarnerBros__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:14] Simeon McMillan joins discussion[00:03:25] Guest media industry background[00:15:40] Hidden value in the golf assets[00:25:25] Future of CNBC[00:37:50] What happens in 2028[00:44:00] The future of sports rightsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker speaks with Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting about the rapidly shifting media landscape. They examine the failed Netflix bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount’s winning acquisition, along with the strategic implications for streaming competition. The conversation analyzes Netflix’s long-term positioning, the importance of intellectual property in a streaming ecosystem, and how artificial intelligence could influence media consumption. They also assess the financial pressures facing traditional media companies, challenges around integrating large media platforms, and the evolving economics of sports rights. Finally, they explore Disney’s strategic transition and the broader outlook for streaming platforms and legacy television networks.You can check out the upcoming AlphaSense webinar here: [00:00] Introduction and webinar announcement[00:04:06] Alex Morris investing background[00:06:55] Netflix Warner Brothers bid debate[00:11:19] Netflix strategy and screen time[00:13:18] AI impact on media IP[00:18:54] Netflix content release strategy discussion[00:26:18] Regulatory pushback on Netflix deal[00:28:17] Netflix strategy after losing bid[00:31:13] Paramount acquisition outlook analysis[00:33:09] Linear television financial dependence[00:37:34] Risks integrating Paramount and Warner[00:41:12] Distribution complexity across platforms[00:46:21] Comcast Versant spinoff strategy critique[00:53:20] Disney position in streaming landscape[00:57:28] Sports rights competitive dynamicsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker speaks with Will Cleary of Carriage House Fund about FTAI Aviation and its rapidly expanding jet engine aftermarket platform. Will explains how FTAI transformed from a traditional aircraft leasing company into a vertically integrated provider of engine maintenance, repair, and module swaps for commercial airlines. The discussion examines the economics of engine maintenance, why FTAI’s model reduces costs and turnaround times for airlines, and how its growing ecosystem of engines and modules creates competitive advantages. They also address the Muddy Waters short report, valuation considerations, and FTAI’s new power initiative converting retired jet engines into turbines for data centers. ___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces guest Will Cleary[00:03:35] Overview of FTAI business model[00:04:05] Vertical integration into engine maintenance[00:05:58] Aviation engine supply shortage context[00:07:05] Why module swap model works[00:09:32] Cost savings from engine module swaps[00:13:58] Network effects in module ecosystem[00:17:15] Adoption by larger airline operators[00:18:41] Strategic capital initiative explained[00:22:35] Risks of off-balance sheet financing[00:25:51] Muddy Waters short report discussion[00:30:23] Evaluating short seller claims[00:32:06] Growth outlook and valuation debate[00:37:09] Framework for valuing FTAI[00:41:21] Data center power turbine initiative[00:43:20] Economics of repurposed jet engines[00:47:05] Potential index inclusion and visibility[00:48:17] Management ownership and alignmentLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Roy Swisa talks about Daily Journal (DJCO) and the evolving thesis behind its valuation. Roy shares how independent research into Journal Technologies’ court case management systems led to consulting work with the company. They examine the sum-of-the-parts framework, the sizable equity portfolio, and incentives post-Charlie Munger. The discussion also explores vertical software durability, regulatory moats, primary research methods, expert networks, and AI’s impact on niche SaaS businesses. Roy outlines how compliance, proprietary data, and procurement dynamics shape competitive positioning in local government markets. Roy's Substack: https://substack.com/@valuetheelephant?Roy's Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rswisa/_________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction to Roy Swisa[00:03:02] Roy’s Daily Journal consulting role[00:03:51] Overview of Daily Journal structure[00:06:13] Vertical software durability thesis[00:12:41] Sum-of-the-parts valuation debate[00:14:02] Equity portfolio and capital allocation[00:25:58] Incentives and balance sheet concerns[00:35:14] Primary research methodology explained[00:42:26] Expert networks versus direct sourcing[00:45:44] SaaS disruption and AI risks[00:48:37] Compliance and proprietary data moats[00:55:57] Where to follow RoyLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Dan Rasmussen and Greg Obenshain of Verdad Capital discuss their white paper on quantitative investing in biotech. Topics include why biotech’s complexity makes it attractive for systematic investors, how specialist fund ownership serves as a quality signal, and why insider buying and spending-based valuation metrics can outperform traditional financial analysis. The conversation also examines momentum within therapeutic categories, risk management on the short side, and how diversification and rebalancing help address biotech’s event-driven volatility.Verdad paper on investing in biotech: https://t.co/JZ1uDURDG2[00:00:00] Introduction to biotech quant paper[00:02:53] Why biotech attracts value investors[00:05:07] Specialist ownership as quality signal[00:08:24] Defining biotech sector specialists[00:11:29] Acquisition patterns and return drivers[00:19:37] Managing short risk in biotech[00:23:06] Short interest as negative signal[00:27:38] Insider buying predictive power[00:32:44] Spending-based valuation framework[00:40:21] Classifying biotech by clinical trials[00:45:34] Momentum within therapeutic categories[00:48:23] Events versus underlying return drivers[00:51:34] Verdad’s contrarian investing philosophyLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Phil Namara of Antipodes discusses Volaris (VLRS), a Mexican low-cost airline with significant domestic exposure and cross-border routes into the U.S. Phil outlines the structural growth opportunity in Mexico’s aviation market, where air travel continues taking share from long-distance buses. The discussion examines industry consolidation, competitive dynamics, grounded aircraft from Pratt & Whitney engine issues, and the proposed merger between Volaris and Viva. They analyze regulatory considerations, potential synergies, and valuation scenarios, framing the investment debate around both standalone fundamentals and merger upside.__________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction to Volaris and thesis[00:03:37] Volaris business overview[00:08:42] Airline industry economics explained[00:12:58] U.S. basic economy impact[00:19:08] European vs U.S. competition[00:22:44] Mexico aviation growth story[00:25:54] Volaris and Viva merger[00:31:07] Competitive barriers in Mexico[00:37:21] Regulatory approval considerations[00:42:41] Pratt & Whitney engine grounding[00:48:59] Merger valuation upside[00:50:05] Downside if deal failsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his February monthly random ramblings, recorded on February 12, 2026. He examines the growing AI-driven panic spreading across SaaS, insurance, trucking, office, and other sectors, questioning how exponential technological improvement could reshape business models built on intangible assets. Andrew compares the current selloff to prior panics in banks and biotech, highlighting the challenges of assessing risk when assets lack tangible backing. He also explores the balance between hard assets and software businesses before closing with reflections on investor psychology, updating priors, and balancing arrogance with humility._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] February monthly random ramblings[00:03:48] AI panic spreading across markets[00:04:18] Office and trucking selloffs[00:06:13] SaaS sector widespread declines[00:09:15] Exponential AI progress concerns[00:14:20] Hard assets as safety trade[00:18:10] Media disruption and SaaS analogy[00:23:05] Updating priors in markets[00:25:00] Arrogance versus humility in investing[00:27:10] Invitation for listener feedbackLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker speaks with Ryan Fennerty of AlphaSense about how investors can improve their use of expert calls and AI tools. Ryan shares practical ways to run better expert interviews, avoid bias, and extract deeper insight from operators. The conversation examines how AI is reshaping research workflows, accelerating earnings analysis, strengthening conviction, and enabling faster synthesis across expert transcripts and internal data. They also address portfolio monitoring, differentiated views, and the evolving skill set required for investors in an AI-driven landscape._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and sponsor message[00:05:37] Framing expert calls around hypotheses[00:07:32] Transcripts versus live expert calls[00:12:36] Echo chambers and bias risks[00:16:37] Managing investor bias in calls[00:20:53] Expert bias and triangulation[00:23:26] Improving expert screening process[00:26:08] Real-time versus long-term insights[00:29:20] Note-taking and AI synthesis[00:31:51] AI’s biggest investing advantage[00:36:31] Differentiated views in AI era[00:41:17] Does AI commoditize research edge?[00:45:18] AI expanding opportunity funnel[00:49:32] Evolving skill sets for investors[00:51:30] AI in portfolio monitoring[00:54:17] Bias across AI data sources[00:56:31] AI transforming expert networks[01:00:17] Corporate use of expert insights[01:02:36] AI, fraud detection, and limits[01:05:47] Future of fundamental investingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with David Kaiser, founder of Methodical Investments, a rules-based quantitative investment firm. David shares his journey from qualitative research to systematic value investing, explaining how structure, discipline, and data inform his approach. The conversation explores maintaining consistency amid evolving markets, the limits of AI, how to avoid pitfalls like melting ice cubes and governance traps, and why being different might still deliver alpha. They cover profitability screens, sector exposure, rule creation, and the timeless tension between sticking to principles and adapting to change._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and host's gym mishap[00:03:40] David explains Methodical’s core model[00:04:21] From qualitative to rule-based process[00:06:13] Rules vs. adaptability tension[00:09:46] Quality plus discount over pure cheap[00:12:12] Profitability and portfolio construction[00:14:18] Metrics used: net income adjusted[00:16:14] Avoiding cyclicals and false cheapness[00:18:13] Sector tilts: discretionary, energy, financials[00:19:35] Competitive edge: consistency and patience[00:20:25] Value investing's long underperformance[00:22:09] Governance traps and data screens[00:25:24] Backtest: profitable companies outperform[00:26:26] Annual rebalance and risk control[00:29:08] Quarterly profit reviews to exit losers[00:31:06] Avoiding data errors and outliers[00:34:28] Addressing off-balance sheet risks[00:37:43] Building rules: testing, common sense[00:40:06] Rule relevance and market evolution[00:42:24] Sector constraints: no biotech, limit financials[00:44:43] Avoiding melting ice cubes stocks[00:48:26] AI as risk and potential edge[00:51:26] Fringe alpha in a crowded field[00:53:26] Backtesting across multiple market cycles[00:55:11] Where to find David and MethodicalLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen for the fastest return in YAVP history. After running out of time in their last chat, Bill returns to dissect Alexander’s Inc. (ALX), exploring its complex debt restructuring, unique real estate portfolio, and intriguing market valuation. The two dive deep into the Bloomberg HQ lease, the nuances of retail space refinancing, and the strategic implications of Steven Roth’s leadership. They also tackle REIT governance concerns, dividend sustainability, and the mystery behind ALX’s high short interest. Bill closes with thoughts on grocery-anchored REITs, White Stone, and REIT buybacks______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces returning guest Bill Chen[00:03:13] Overview of Alexander’s history and assets[00:06:57] Complex debt restructuring of Bloomberg retail space[00:10:04] Debt haircut and strategic implications[00:14:47] Asset breakdown: Bloomberg tower, retail, apartments[00:21:37] Share price vs. underlying asset value[00:23:28] Corporate governance: Roth and Vornado dynamics[00:29:09] Dividend risk and short interest discussion[00:34:37] Bloomberg lease escalators and valuation upside[00:37:10] Update on grocery-anchored REIT landscape[00:41:57] Commentary on REIT share buybacks[00:47:50] Special dividend catalyst: Rego potential saleLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen for a wide-ranging discussion centered on the world of REITs. Though the conversation was intended to focus on one stock, the duo instead explores why REITs have underperformed in recent years, capital cycle dynamics, governance issues, and where Bill sees current opportunities. They dive deep into the theoretical and practical aspects of REIT investing, dissect recent REIT liquidations, and discuss portfolio construction and leverage in event-driven opportunities.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Intro and sponsor message[00:02:20] Launching into REIT investing theory[00:04:38] Cap rates vs. real estate value[00:08:03] Rent growth, leverage, and returns[00:11:06] Why REITs have lagged recently[00:15:51] Capital cycle theory in real estate[00:17:55] Governance issues with public REITs[00:22:23] Share buybacks vs. reinvestment[00:25:18] Griffin case study and alternatives[00:30:35] Takeouts and market inefficiencies[00:33:37] Where Bill sees dislocation now[00:36:11] Using leverage in liquidations[00:40:14] REIT liquidation downside surprises[00:42:00] Asset quality and bid dynamics[00:45:25] Legal risks in revised estimates[00:47:11] Unique REIT liquidation wave[00:49:31] Navigating current REIT opportunities[00:50:01] Wrap-up and next time teaseLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Andrew Walker returns solo for his January 2026 ramblings and discusses the current market euphoria, responses to his “weird markets” thesis, the allure and danger of stepping outside one’s investing edge, how power laws are often misunderstood, and an evolution in his views on societal vices. From geopolitical risk to sports betting regulation, Andrew digs into ideas that may shape investor mindsets in the months ahead.[00:00:00] January 2026 intro and disclaimers[00:01:15] Face-ripping rally and market euphoria[00:04:54] Greenland, tariffs, and taco trade risk[00:08:50] Weird markets thesis listener pushback[00:13:02] Misuse of AI in generating alpha[00:16:29] Slap-worthy portfolio diversification mistakes[00:20:28] Misreading power laws in indexes[00:22:52] Shifting stance on cannabis and gambling[00:25:42] Tail risk in vices and regulationLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Jeremy Raper returns for a deep-dive postmortem on his high-conviction investment in aviation leasing company AVAP. From sourcing the deal via Twitter, to acquiring a ~20% block at well below book value, to negotiating with key stakeholders and navigating operational hurdles, Jeremy recounts the challenges and victories of shareholder activism in a niche sector. This case study sheds light on the realities of unlocking value in the public markets and the grind behind executing a thesis, even when the setup looks ideal on paper._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Jeremy and episode topic[00:02:11] Investment is a postmortem of AVAP[00:04:01] Jeremy's background in aviation leasing[00:09:41] Block purchase strategy and rationale[00:12:01] Purchase price details and thesis[00:13:45] Value from being largest shareholder[00:15:01] Behind-the-scenes work and learning[00:17:27] Complexity of executing activist strategies[00:23:46] Monetizing intangibles and aircraft rights[00:25:01] Shareholder base and interest after stake[00:28:24] Exiting AVAP and evaluating outcome[00:30:02] Final thoughts on learning from postmortemsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerThis podcast was sponsored by https://www.youtube.com/@UClqFz8aiVfSV2PviLcQrIbA Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

YAVP hall of famer Jeremy Raper returns to cover a wide range of topics—from Jeremy’s decision to shut down his investment blog to his perspective on underappreciated international markets like Japan and the UK. The episode culminates with an in-depth discussion on Jeremy’s high-stakes activist campaign at HUM Group, a non-bank Australian lender. Jeremy explains why he's pushing for a board overhaul and outlines governance red flags he believes shareholders shouldn't ignore.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:24] Jeremy reflects on his writing journey[00:05:21] Why Jeremy stopped his pay blog[00:08:58] Loss of inbound connections[00:12:29] State of Japanese event market[00:17:55] Deep value still thrives in Japan[00:19:09] Concerns with UK governance culture[00:25:49] Overview of HUM Group situation[00:30:29] Rejecting undervalued chairman offer[00:36:53] AGM governance failure issues[00:42:43] Call to vote and next stepsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Adam Buckstein from ASB partners explores Stride Inc. (formerly K12), the largest provider of virtual public schools in the U.S. Adam dives deep into the company's business model, regulatory framework, and competitive position, as well as the company's unique funding structure, post-COVID enrollment growth, market misconceptions, and the complex compliance challenges it faces. The conversation also dives into Stride’s outcomes, criticisms, AI’s future role in education, and the stock’s dramatic drop following an LMS implementation misstep. _____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:03:30] Stride’s virtual school structure[00:05:34] Funding model vs. for-profit colleges[00:07:16] Why parents choose virtual schools[00:09:19] Learning coach growth post-COVID[00:10:16] Payment structure for Stride[00:12:22] Outcome debates and challenges[00:17:38] Competitive landscape with Pearson[00:21:07] Stickiness of Stride contracts[00:23:22] Curriculum costs and customization[00:25:10] Economic sensitivity discussion[00:28:43] Student acquisition and marketing[00:32:44] October enrollment drop explained[00:35:42] LMS transition and enrollment loss[00:38:22] New Mexico lawsuit context[00:43:26] Outcome data interpretation issues[00:45:27] AI impact on Stride’s model[00:47:17] Financials and cash flow strength[00:51:10] Market overreaction to issues[00:54:09] Risks if outcomes lag in-person[00:56:33] Teachers union and school choiceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this solo episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker introduces and unpacks his evolving investment concept: the Theory of Weird Markets. Andrew uses analogies from sports, AI, and Rubik’s Cube competitions to argue that traditional strategies in investing are increasingly obsolete. Instead, he suggests that in an age dominated by quant funds, AI, and machine learning, alpha lies at the edges—in unique, weird, or "N of 1" investment opportunities. This episode is part rough-draft, part invitation, as Andrew seeks listener feedback to refine the theory that will underpin much of his investing outlook for 2026. ____________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and sponsor mention[00:02:02] Overview of episode structure[00:03:08] Theory of Weird Markets explained[00:05:17] Stock market as ultimate competition[00:09:09] Sports performance evolution examples[00:10:00] Rubik’s Cube as improvement analogy[00:13:11] Incentives in Rubik’s vs. investing[00:15:09] Finance history proves competition[00:17:30] Counterintuitive strategies dominate at scale[00:18:42] AI and chess: new strategy insights[00:20:00] AI poker strategy looks irrational[00:21:16] Humans must embrace “weird” edge[00:22:56] AI fails with unexpected variables[00:23:26] Power demand as under-modeled opportunity[00:24:35] Spinoffs and unique events as alpha[00:25:28] Warner Bros. Discovery case study[00:26:26] Management incentives and market edges[00:27:10] Writer’s block and theory reflection[00:28:21] Call for feedback and discussionLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Jon Boyar of Boyar Research for an (almost) annual discussion on the “Forgotten 40” — a curated list of 40 overlooked, value-oriented stocks. Jon outlines major 2025 themes including SMID caps and financials, before diving into deep valuations and sale potential for the Atlanta Braves, plus long-term positioning of Uber in an autonomous future. They also touch on media exposure, structural incentives, and the potential for corporate activism to unlock value in overlooked names.__________________________________________________[00:00:00] Intro to podcast and guest[00:02:53] History and aim of Forgotten 40[00:04:14] Turnover and name selection for 2025[00:05:13] Key 2025 themes: SMID & financials[00:06:42] Financials overweight rationale explained[00:08:07] Braves ownership, real estate, and thesis[00:10:59] Tax code change and sale incentive[00:12:09] Valuation math for Atlanta Braves[00:15:13] Media rights and sale timing risk[00:18:00] Malone incentives and sale complications[00:22:27] MLB work stoppage risk and reward[00:25:50] Baseball trends and geographic pull[00:26:15] MSGS ownership, family dynamics[00:29:53] Generational control and liquidity questions[00:30:54] Mark Cuban sale as precedent[00:33:36] Media names: fewer included this year[00:35:11] Uber thesis: misunderstood and evolving[00:37:25] AV risk vs strategic opportunity[00:39:03] Valuation vs zero-risk scenario[00:41:01] Eats vs Dash vs Instacart[00:41:56] Consumer pushback and price sensitivity[00:45:50] Waymo or Tesla acquisition logic[00:49:17] Bonus pick: UniFirst & Cintas pursuit[00:52:05] Activism, family dynamics, and valuation[00:53:11] Wrap-up and links to Forgotten 40Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

After a long hiatus, one of the people's most popular guests returns. Randy Baron ventures across the pond to talk about Victoria PLC. Victoria has run into hard times, driven by a bunch of debt and a vicious cyclical downturn, but Randy sees some light at the end of the tunnel and goes into all the ways the company can survive the downturn and the huge potential upside for the common stock if he's right.___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:01:59] Reintroducing guest Randy Barron[00:02:43] Company overview: Victoria PLC[00:05:16] Stock down 95%, what happened[00:09:58] Audit issue worsens perception[00:11:58] UK flooring market fragmentation[00:15:23] Headlam distress affects Victoria[00:16:40] Business story vs. distressed debt[00:19:44] Victoria's debt breakdown[00:21:04] Coke preferred equity explained[00:25:54] Coke takeover rules in UK[00:28:16] Preferred overhang and resolution[00:30:22] Stock impact from deal structure[00:33:02] Coke debt buyout possibility[00:34:07] Cyclical vs. structural downturn[00:36:36] Housing slowdown impacts demand[00:37:32] 2028 bonds trade at heavy discount[00:41:48] Asset sales to pay down debt[00:43:01] Jeff Wilding's role and strategy[00:47:28] Chairman’s capital allocation record[00:48:01] Assessing market misjudgment[00:50:19] UK market investment case[00:51:46] UK stamp tax impact[00:52:19] Making UK more investible[00:54:38] Macro vs. valuation gap in UK[00:55:16] Downside risk and cash flowLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Capital joins for a wide ranging discussion of inflection investing, $TOI's unique oncology model, and tons of stuff on risk management and portfolio construction.See Lake Cornelia's Substack here: https://lakecornelia.substack.com/ ___________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest announcement[00:02:41] Judd on becoming a father[00:03:40] Judd discusses launching Substack[00:06:30] Complexity versus simplicity in investing[00:07:52] Liquidity and investor interest matter[00:11:06] Inflection investing over valuation focus[00:15:59] Sector and story versus fundamentals[00:19:55] TOI scalability and market potential[00:25:26] TOI business model and economics[00:31:32] Comparisons with other healthcare models[00:39:31] Consulting impact on investment process[00:44:21] Sizing up at inflection points[00:50:48] Risk profiles in portfolio strategy[00:53:20] M&A strategy and market perceptions[00:57:35] Netflix synergies and investor worries[01:01:45] Warner Bros bidding strategy discussionLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/