UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The US employment report adds a rather unreliable narrative to the US labor market data. Expectations are for a dull report, with an unchanged unemployment rate and a sub-100,000 non-farm payrolls number. However, the range of estimates is particularly scattered. When job creation is this weak, the composition of the workforce may distort the average hourly earnings data without saying anything about wage growth.

Europe is often associated with weaker growth, energy shocks, and geopolitical pressure. But beneath the surface, some of the region’s leading companies are telling a very different story - one of resilience, adaptation, and innovation. In this episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters are joined by Rolf Ganter, Head of European Equities, to discuss what is driving the rebound in European corporate profits, why investors may be underestimating the strength of European companies, and which areas may offer opportunities from here.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book’s summary of economic anecdote mentioned “uncertain” and “uncertainty” no fewer than 50 times this month (before tariffs were announced). That is below the uncertainty peak that followed last year’s tariffs, but well above the 14 mentions in May 2024. Uncertainty has a paralyzing effect on business decisions—and the risk is that uncertainty endures.

US President Trump is proposing new tariffs—an additional 10% for US consumers of goods from most major economies. Someone in the administration seems to be aware that tariffing high frequency purchases aggravates inflation perceptions and the affordability crisis, and some key food items are exempted.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on recent market performance and the momentum of equities, along with the impact of inflation concerns to bond market activity. Plus, some observations and takeaways from the UBS Global Family Office report.

Another day, another round of Gulf war stories—the latest originated from semi-official Iranian sources, so markets took them more seriously. Iran’s apparent suspension of negotiations with the US prompted US President Trump to attempt a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Market opinions differ as to the terms and effectiveness of this.

June has commenced and summer is just around the corner. US equities however have not waited for summer to heat up, as the S&P 500 last week completed its ninth straight positive week. There exists however concern that this rally is overdone and at risk of a pullback. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, reflects on current market conditions, drivers and provides an investment outlook. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices have edged higher on the lack of any discernible progress toward an Iran-US agreement. As with reports of an imminent deal last week, the reaction is muted. A jaded cynicism has come over investors, and in the absence of a definite statement from Iran there is a tendency to downplay comments from the US administration.

Every technology shift redraws the market leaderboard. From mainframe to PC, to internet and mobile, history shows it is not only about what stocks to own, but also what stocks not to own. Incumbents rarely win the next era, while profits shift to platforms and networks built on top of the hardware layer. In AI, companies fastest to reach platform mode, combining intelligence and application layers, are likely to define the next generation of market leaders.

Aakash Doshi, Head of Gold Strategy at State Street Investment Management, drops by the Talking Markets Podcast to outline the investment case for gold against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Aakash weighs in on price volatility, how he sees gold demand evolving, and how the structural factors that supported the gold market run in recent years have been impacted by recent geopolitical risk factors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Energy markets gave a cautious response to reports the US and Iran may extend the terms of the “ceasefire”. Key approvals are missing—US President Trump wishes to think about it, which will take a couple of days. Market caution also reflects the more muted tone from the Iranian side. Energy markets need to consider a post-war environment—how quickly production normalizes, what damage must be repaired, and what a newly empowered Iran means.

Tony Kim, Head of the Global Technology Team within the Fundamental Equities division of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, drops by the Talking Markets Podcast to reflect on a recent two-week Asia Tech Tour, where he met with over 40 companies across the AI stack. Tony shares what stood out most from those conversations, and shares how he is framing the opportunity and timing for another emerging tech theme, quantum computing. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the past day, the US fired on Iran, Iran fired on Kuwait, Israel fired on Lebanon, US President Trump threatened to “blow up” Oman. The US administration says the ceasefire (sic) is holding. Market reactions have been negative but muted. Investors are eyeing US domestic political pressures as grounds for expecting a resolution, in spite of Trump’s denials. Trump’s approval rating hit a new low in a recent opinion poll, and the administration is being directly blamed for higher prices.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Letty Zemaitis, Frank Sileo, Sudip Mukherjee & Barry McAlinden, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

The embarrassing lack of economic information leaves markets prey to idle speculation, rather than the pure and objective guidance that economists can offer. Yesterday’s exchange of fire between Iran and the US has not had a major market impact—it fits with Iran’s narrative on negotiations (which is what markets have priced), and keeps the optimism bias more or less intact.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s continued positive outlook for US equities, along with updates to S&P 500 price targets and earnings estimates. Plus, a review and risk considerations, spanning geopolitical factors and interest rate movement. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US air strikes against Iran seem to confirm the Iranian view of negotiations to end the war. Investors had tended to focus on Iran’s perspective rather than the view set out in US President Trump’s social media posts, so the strikes have generated only a muted market response.

Iran confirmed progress in talks with the US, lending credibility to US President Trump’s weekend social media posts. A deal still seems some way off, but progress is enough to fuel markets’ inherent bias to optimism and oil prices have fallen. Reopening Hormuz would not return oil prices to pre-war levels. However, the impact of any Iranian tariff on tankers using the strait (probably around USD 2 million per shipment) would be an economic rounding error for global inflation.

Joe Davis is the Global Chief Economist and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Vanguard. Joe joined Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas, at the 1285 podcast studio to exchange views on a range of topics, including how the current geopolitical landscape is impacting markets, the road ahead for monetary policy, how artificial intelligence is shaping innovation and the investment landscape, and other mega-trends top of mind for investors. Host: Bryan Contreras

UK consumer sentiment improved on the latest reading; but since the financial crisis, sentiment and reality have not been too closely aligned. UK April retail sales were weaker, with a more-than-10% decline in auto fuel sales leading the weakness. UK consumers have options (walking, public transport, flexible working) that can slow fuel consumption when prices rise.

Tiffany Agard, Strategist on the UBS Global Investment Management Sustainable and Impact investing team is joined by Preeti Sayana, Portfolio Manager with Fidelity Investments, for a discussion around advances in gender-lens investing, opportunities to advance gender equality, and how to leverage your investments as a means for achieving that advancement - referencing the 2026 Gender-lens investment report from UBS Global Investment Management. Host: Bryan Contreras

News that Iran has allowed some ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz encouraged a modest drop in the oil price. The volume of oil exiting the Gulf is a fraction of pre-war levels, but allowing some flow might diminish physical shortages. Assuming Iran benefits economically, it also lessens pressures on Iran to deal with the US. In terms of the Wile E. Coyote trajectory, this implies the economy is still over the edge of the cliff, but might continue running through thin air for longer.

As the US midterm elections draw closer, Kurt and Shane drop by to outline potential Election Day outcome scenarios, as well as the policy and market implications of them. Plus, we reflect on the recent summit in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, along with the geopolitical and economic implications of the ongoing US-Iran War. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, from Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Bond markets remain nervous about the Iran war (which potentially impacts inflation and fiscal deficits). Investors hope that market angst might encourage a US policy shift, as it did with tariffs. However, (at the time), tariffs were under US President Trump’s direct control and could be changed on a whim. Middle Eastern politics is a little more complex.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 29.04.26

US President Trump declared that the US delayed attacking Iran because talks are going so well. Markets have been cautious in response. Equities failed to rally, because no attack is the status quo; and if investors have learned one thing about Axios reports of a deal, it is that these are historically a great reverse indicator. Oil prices did stop rising, perhaps reflecting a belief that this reiterates a US desire to find an exit.

Higher inflation and rates are near-term challenges. Policy-makers may respond by either exercising their policy "puts" or by making policy errors, both of which would impact near-term market performance. With the unofficial start of summer beginning this coming weekend, a question that investors may be asking is whether they should sell in May before they go away. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are unsettled by a fire at an Emirati nuclear power plant, caused by an unidentified drone. US President Trump posted on social media about Iran using capital letters, and Iranian media are clear that Iran does not see an imminent US deal. Oil prices are still well below levels required to match supply and demand (without using reserves). Separately, media reports progress on a UK trade deal with Gulf states—not relevant immediately but important when reconstruction and rearmament budgets start to be spent.

After a week marked by rising bond yields and a steepening US yield curve, markets are weighing whether higher rates are a true signal or just noise for equities. We discuss why, despite the move in rates, the US equity bull market remains supported by strong global government spending, resilient consumer spending, and continued corporate investment in areas like AI. History shows that equity markets can withstand rate increases as long as growth stays solid. Tune in at the start of the trading week for this regular market outlook from Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas and Global Head of Equities. Recorded on 17 May 2026.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Adam Bloch, Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Investments, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.

The China-US summit concluded. Much increasingly scarce jet fuel has been burned to produce nothing of real substance. China’s President Xi declared an agreement to keep trade ties stable. The two sides were unlikely to agree to anything different (no one would announce unstable trade ties). Stability is not a word that is normally associated with US trade policy over the past 15 months, lessening the statement’s value.

UK first quarter GDP was stronger than expected, led by the consumer. As elsewhere, consumers have reduced savings rates to afford higher oil prices. UK consumers can also adjust oil demand via flexible working and online retail. Politics is overshadowing economics, with a possible challenge to Prime Minister Starmer. Former deputy Labour leader Rayner was cleared of tax wrongdoing, increasing the chances of a challenge. However, any change of leadership is not likely to substantially change fiscal policy.

John Popp, Global Head and CIO, David Mechlin, Head of Liquid Credit, and Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management, discuss recent market developments within broadly syndicated loans, high yield bonds, and CLOs. Recorded on 04.22.2026

US April consumer price inflation was slightly higher than expected—but with of the data being guesswork, and rising fictitious owner’s equivalent rent, it is unwise to overemphasize that. The details do raise political concerns. Since US President Trump took office, coffee prices have risen 24%, beef over 19%, gasoline over 19%, and vegetables 10.5%. These are price increases that consumers notice and remember. Trump claimed not to think about Americans’ financial situation, but markets are betting the president does care (and policy decisions will reflect that).

Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to share highlights from the latest CEO Macro Briefing Book - Paul covers how the landscape for dealmaking and economic environment have evolved in recent months, touches on how business owners should think about the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, along with the road ahead for monetary policy. Plus, an assessment of how artificial intelligence in shaping and impacting economic activity. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Brian Mulberry serves as Chief Market Strategist a Zacks Investment Management. Brian shares his thoughts on a range of factors top of mind for investors and that are influencing market momentum, including geopolitics, energy prices, Fed monetary policy, Q1 earnings results, and more. Plus, Brian shares his views on equity positioning, and the resilience we’ve seen in equity markets. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In 1972, US President Nixon focused on the electoral risks of rising hamburger meat prices, ultimately imposing government control of wages and prices. Yesterday, US President Trump signaled concern about today’s US affordability crisis, signing executive orders attempting to lower beef prices (up over 16% since January 2025). Trump also urged temporarily ending the federal gasoline tax—that would increase fiscal borrowing, but only offset a small part of recent price increases.

As we’re approaching the two-thirds point of the decade, Jason’s starting to think about the finance word of the 2020s - Resilient or Roaring. Plus, reflections on the positive equity market momentum, the health of the U.S. economy, and a review of CIO’s key messages around portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Last week’s Axios newswire report that Iran and the US were “moving towards” a deal have (again) proved to be less than accurate. US President Trump declared Iran’s response to US peace overtures to be “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”. The basic problem for markets remains—reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on Iran, there is little information about the Iranian government’s position, and information from other sources (including the US) cannot be considered reliable.

After a decade of mega cap dominance reinforced by passive investing, individual stock moves are now much larger than the index and correlations have dropped to near their lowest since 2018. We discuss why it’s now time for active investing versus the passive investing that has dominated the prior decade, and how our transformational innovation opportunities like AI, electrification, and longevity, provide an opportunity to capture returns above and beyond the indices. Tune in at the start of the trading week for this regular market outlook from Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas and Global Head of Equities. Recorded on 10 May 2026.

After leaving a job, there are options for managing the assets in a former employer's retirement plan. In this episode, we outline those options, including rolling the assets into another retirement plan or an individual retirement account (IRA). Featured are Justin Waring, Head UBS Wealth Way Strategy & Solutions, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist with the UBS Chief Investment Office Global Investment Management team. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, joins to highlight his new monthly report US macro: FAQs to forecasts - 10 frequently asked questions as it relates to the US economy. This month we discuss where AI effects are showing up in labor data, the status of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax cuts, and what the Fed is watching for that could set up further rate cuts. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Iran launched attacks against US naval vessels, and the United Arab Emirates. The US launched airstrikes against Iran. The Washington Post reports the US CIA believes Iran’s government can avoid additional economic hardship for several months, and that Iran still holds substantial stocks of missiles and launchers. This suggests less pressure on Iran to do a deal with the US—implying the US must compromise further, or the Strait of Hormuz will be closed longer than markets expect.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the US-China relationship ahead of next week’s summit in Beijing, the Strait of Hormuz closure and its impact to global energy prices, and what this all means for broader global markets and investor sentiment.

Emerging market equities have come a long way, evolving from commodity-driven high-beta plays to a dynamic mix of tech, AI, and regional growth stories. In this episode, we break down what’s powering EM returns today, the rise of North Asia’s tech giants, the shifting role of commodities, and why diversification matters more than ever. We also spotlight the key catalysts to watch in the months ahead: the Iran peace deal, US-China diplomacy, hyperscaler spending, China’s growth outlook, and pivotal EM elections. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Axios newswires reported the US and Iran “closing in on a deal”. Axios published similar reports on 15 April, 17 April, and 26 April. Markets want to believe, and blind faith drives pricing at the moment. The shape of the current war is largely in Iran’s hands. Investors have few insights into Iranian policy making.

For decades, emerging markets have been seen as the riskier part of portfolios. We discuss what has changed, and why markets are suddenly challenging that assumption now. Plus, we highlight how investors should consider using emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies in portfolios going forward. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras

Elaine Zaharis-Nikas serves as Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities and a senior portfolio manager for the Cohen & Steers preferred securities portfolios. Elaine joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.

US policy in the Gulf war has been unpredictable, but publicly unpredictable. Yesterday’s retreat from“guiding”ships through the Strait of Hormuz was a public decision. The pressures of rising gasoline prices in the US economy are publicly visible. However, investors also need to know Iranian policy, which is privately unpredictable. The forces pressuring the Iranian government are difficult to determine.

Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, is joined by Pat Haskell, Head of the Municipal Bond Group within the Portfolio Management Group at BlackRock, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of the municipal bond market. They cover a performance update and outlook, share views on muni credit, and discuss the growth in SMAs and ETFs in the muni market.