Reuters Morning Bid

Microsoft says its new quantum computing chip is a thousand times more powerful than its predecessor and that a commercially viable machine could arrive by 2029 - claims scientists are calling wildly optimistic. Meanwhile, fighting resumes in the Gulf despite a technical ceasefire, alarming energy markets. And U.S. job openings surge well beyond expectations in April. Today’s recommended read: Wild stock moves beneath an eerily calm surface, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anthropic's confidential IPO filing sets off a frenzy of new listings, but Alphabet's plan to raise $80 billion in equity takes some of the shine off the excitement. Meanwhile, oil prices swing nearly five percent before retreating after Trump signals U.S.-Iran talks may still produce a deal, and U.S. factory activity hits a four-year high - raising fresh questions about inflation. Today’s recommended read: AI frenzy stokes inflation heat too, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NVIDIA unveils an AI chip for personal computers as Jensen Huang takes the stage in Taipei. Samsung adds another 10% and South Korean exports post their fastest growth since 1984. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran missile strikes resume and a hoped-for ceasefire memorandum shows no sign of progress. Today’s recommended read: US gasoline market set for fresh test after near-record stock draws, Gavin Maguire Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting in June, but Jerome Powell may still make his presence felt. His board seat runs to early 2028, making him a potential swing vote. Meanwhile, questions are growing over whether Warsh will move to scrap the dot plot and reduce the Fed's balance sheet. A move analysts warn could add volatility and a risk premium at a time when borrowing costs are already high. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, U.S. inflation hits a three-year high. Fed officials warn that AI - meant to ease inflation - might actually be making it worse. Plus, Micron and SK Hynix cross trillion-dollar valuations for the first time and a rocket built by the Jeff Bezos-owned space company Blue Origin blows up on the launchpad. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets are pricing in a U.S.-Iran deal, but U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to approve it and Iran saysit has not been finalized. Meanwhile, the Fed's inflation gauge just hit a three-year high,leaving the Fed running out of reasons not to hike. Plus, Anthropic's valuation just overtook OpenAI - funded in part by the very chipmakers it needs to build its models. Today’s recommended read: What if the AI boom goes into reverse?, Joachim Klement Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Three months into the Gulf war, renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges have sent oil back to around $100 a barrel, dashing hopes of an imminent peace deal. April PCE inflation is forecast near 3.8% - almost twice the Fed's target - with May nowcasts already above 4%. Plus, U.S. President Dondald Trump's softer tone on rate cuts is raising fresh questions about whether his administration's weaker-dollar ambitions are also being quietly shelved. Today’s recommended read: Trump Fed pivot raises dollar-policy doubts too, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Micron Technology and SK Hynix join the trillion-dollar club, Samsung is sharing the wealth - striking a deal to pay some memory chip workers bonuses of over $400,000. But as long-term U.S. borrowing costs climb, analysts warn that rising bond yields could start to weigh on equity markets. Today’s recommended read: US bonds about to bite stocks, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Weekend hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough fade after fresh American strikes on southern Iran, though markets are treating the move as a possible push toward agreement rather than escalation. Oil is up around 2% Tuesday, reversing only part of Monday's losses. Plus, fresh U.S. consumer confidence data is out today - with high fuel prices expected to have hit hard. Today’s recommended read: China's weak steel output, strong iron ore imports show structural shift, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer, energy markets face a potential crunch point in June if the Strait of Hormuz blockage remains unresolved and fuel inventories keep falling. Meanwhile, U.S. PCE inflation data due this week is expected to show headline inflation moving above the Fed's current policy rate. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia announced an $80 billion stock buyback and forecast a trillion dollars in AI chip sales — and markets shrugged. SpaceX filed for what could be the biggest IPO in history, promising Mars colonies and orbital data centers. Plus, bond markets finally price in the Iran war's inflation hit, with one analyst telling Reuters that U.S. Treasury yields now feel "unanchored." Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

*This episode was updated to remove incorrect normal Strait of Hormuz traffic figures* Oil traders are pushing back against the NACHO trade - "Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens" - sending Brent crude down around 6% on the week as positive signals emerge from U.S.-Iran talks. But differences over Iran’s uranium stockpiles and a toll on the Strait of Hormuz as well as President Trump's threat to resume bombing hangs over negotiations. Plus, Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in as Federal Reserve chair at the White House today. Today’s recommended read: Can Wall Street boom soothe workers' pain?, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia nearly doubled its earnings, forecast $91 billion in revenue above consensus, raised its dividend and announced an $80 billion buyback - and its shares still fell about 1%. SpaceX filed for its IPO with OpenAI is reportedly next. Plus, Reuters/Ipsos polling finds Republican voters evenly split on Trump's cost-of-living record, a notable marker heading into the midterms. Today’s recommended read: 'True cost of living' could be Trump's biggest headache, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia's blockbuster earnings are widely anticipated, but with the stock already up around 20% this year and the bar set sky-high, markets are bracing for volatility either way. All of this plays out against a backdrop of U.S. inflation potentially heading above 4%, rising bond yields, and a looming potential strike at Samsung that raises fresh questions about labor's place in the AI economy. Today’s recommended read: Bond yields may finally be baking in an AI world, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains above 5% even after President Trump says he called off planned strikes on Iran, with a Bank of America survey showing most fund managers expect it to climb toward 6%. NextEra's $67 billion bid for Dominion would create the third-largest U.S. energy company. And UK gilt yields edge lower after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham signals he would stick with the government's existing fiscal rules. Today’s recommended read: Warsh's arrival leaves long bonds without a safety net, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. 30-year Treasury yields reach levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis, rattling bond markets across the globe. Oil above $110 and sticky inflation add to the pressure as G7 finance chiefs meet in Paris, and markets await Nvidia earnings for the latest read on the AI spending surge. Today’s recommended read: Opaque oil deals around Hormuz test the petrodollar, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia's earnings this week are expected to confirm the AI boom's momentum, but questions linger over whether hyperscalers can sustain their massive capital spending. Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates near 6.5% and 30-year Treasury yields topping 5% for the first time since 2007 are raising alarms that the rates market is flashing warnings that stock markets appear to be ignoring. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing, but markets had little to take away, with no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation hit its highest levels since 2022 and 2023, complicating the path for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and UK gilts came under pressure as a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer rattled sterling. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump flies home from Beijing after a two-day summit that delivered scant details on trade and no breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Fed chair Jerome Powell's eight-year tenure ends today as Kevin Warsh inherits a divided committee. And UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a mounting leadership challenge as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham moves closer to a leadership run. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Day one of U.S. President Donald Trump's Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced more than two hours of talks and a roster of top CEOs, but no concrete trade or policy announcements. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices post their steepest monthly rise in four years, 30-year Treasury yields topped 5% for the first time since 2007. And, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair just as markets began pricing in rate hikes. Today’s recommended read: Fed may have to hike to defend its credibility, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a rebellion inside his own Labour Party as thirty-year gilt yields hit their highest since the 1990s. Today’s recommended read: G7 long bond stress intensifies, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Today’s recommended read: Warsh's red lines worry world finance by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally unacceptable." Today’s recommended read: Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate discussions. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Amanda Cooper and Peter Devlin discuss the week that was, including Reuters revelation that a total of $7 billion oil price bets ahead the Iran war news. Hear how US jobs numbers beat expectations beat for a second straight month and what another court ruling on tariffs could mean to the global economy.  Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks are still defying gravity, even as Gulf tensions flare and President Trump's tariffs face another legal setback. With U.S. jobs numbers due later today, investors are about to find out how much good news is already priced in. Today’s recommended read: Shrinking US fuel stocks leave Trump exposed, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Asian markets return from Golden Week to a tech-driven rally, with Japan's Nikkei surging 6% and SoftBank jumping nearly 20%. Meanwhile, Tehran mulls a one-page U.S. proposal to end the Iran war, and U.S. labor market data shows hiring holding up despite the oil shock. Today’s recommended read: Trapdoor creaks for dollar if Iran war ends, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil falls and stocks hit another record high after the Trump administration suspends "Project Freedom," citing progress in Iran negotiations. AMD surges 16% and Samsung jumps more than 10% on roaring chip demand tied to the AI build-out. And long-dated government bond yields climb to multi-decade highs in the U.S. and UK. Today’s recommended read: US long bonds over 5% - buy or beware?, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil holds above $110 a barrel as fighting in the Gulf intensifies, with Iranian forces striking a UAE oil installation and small boats exchanging fire with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a sharp upgrade to U.S. earnings forecasts and soaring AI spending projections keep equity investors from heading for the exits. Today’s recommended read: Forget 3% US inflation. It's heading for 4%, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh steps into the Fed chair role this week with three regional Fed presidents calling for the removal of any easing bias and Jerome Powell staying on the board until 2028 — leaving no immediate new vacancy for the White House to fill. Plus, Friday's payrolls report will be the week's key test of whether the employment side of the economy remains as resilient as it has been since the Iran conflict began. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The UAE announced it is pulling out of OPEC, a move that analysts say could complicate the group's ability to manage production quotas. The Fed held rates but recorded its biggest board dissent since 1992, with Powell announcing he'll stay on as governor and warning against what he called a "battering" of Fed independence. The Bank of England and ECB signaled they could hike as soon as June, though bond yields fell as markets scaled back their most aggressive rate expectations. And Tech earnings powered Wall Street to its best month since 2020, with the four largest tech companies committing more than $700 billion to AI infrastructure.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Japanese markets on holiday and liquidity thin, the yen jumps sharply on what sources suggest may be a second round of official buying. Central banks in Europe lean hawkish despite stagflation concerns, while Apple's earnings beat is tempered by Tim Cook's warning that iPhone prices could rise due to chip shortages. Today’s recommended read: The UAE dumping OPEC may not affect crude as anticipated, by Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the Iran blockade could last months, sending Brent crude to its highest level since the war began and feeding U.S. inflation expectations. Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Federal Reserve board after his term as chair ends May 15, a move that blocks Trump from immediately filling his seat. Plus, Meta slid around 7% on rising CapEx concerns, while Alphabet surged roughly 7% on the strength of its cloud business. Today’s recommended read: Iran war stasis brings US inflation expectations back to the boil, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

OPEC loses its fourth-biggest producer. Jerome Powell prepares to chair what is almost certainly his final Federal Reserve policy meeting with inflation ticking back up. And a quiet Wall Street Journal report about OpenAI missing targets is rattling the entire AI trade - right before Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta report after the bell. Today’s recommended read: Transatlantic rate convergence may be a mirage, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A rare split vote at the BOJ sharpens the debate over Japan’s next rate move, even as the yen struggles to rally. Oil holds above $100 with the Iran conflict frozen, while tech stocks power ahead into a pivotal earnings week. Today’s recommended read: 'See through' Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads into what could be his last meeting as Fed chair as oil tops $100 and Wall Street seems unfazed by geopolitical tension. AI‑linked stocks lead global markets higher ahead of a big week for tech earnings. Today’s recommended read: Iran war hands OPEC's swing producer crown to America, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Central banks take the spotlight this week, with U.S. inflation data set to test expectations for rate cuts. Plus a look ahead to key mega‑cap earnings. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearings put a spotlight on the future of the Fed. SpaceX’s IPO filing shows Elon Musk retaining control of the rocket maker. Plus, DeepSeek’s latest model shows China’s growing self-sufficiency in AI. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil prices climb again after U.S. President Donald Trump warns Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. But stocks keep rallying, helped by upbeat AI earnings from Intel. Today’s recommended read: Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil prices are climbing and geopolitics are getting worse, but markets keep clinging to tech. Tesla’s shares pop on positive cash flow, then slip on higher spending plans, raising the question of how long tech optimism can outweigh rising energy costs and global risk. Today’s recommended read: A Warsh-led Fed's 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil traders shrug at U.S. President Donald Trump's Iran ceasefire extension. Tesla kicks off a crucial earnings week. Plus, Kevin Warsh signals a future where Fed independence comes with real trade-offs. Today’s recommended read: Warsh's impossible mission - Tame inflation and please Trump, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets shrug off Middle East tensions as tech stocks ride the AI wave. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces Congress. Apple investors stay calm as Tim Cook steps aside, handing the helm to longtime hardware chief John Ternus. Today’s recommended read: Can Europe take advantage of its savings buffer over US? by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Shifting signals around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz send oil prices swinging again, keeping energy markets on edge. U.S. equities stay driven by tech momentum, while UK assets watch renewed political strain. Today’s recommended read: Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon?, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Wall Street regains lost ground, a political fight over the Federal Reserve threatens to unsettle what comes next. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil slides as Iran signals shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. banks post solid earnings and China beats growth forecasts. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks are rallying on hopes of an end to the Iran war but European airlines are cancelling flights as the energy crunch deepens. Plus, Netflix founder Reed Hastings is stepping down. Today’s recommended read: China is coming back – and the timing couldn’t be better, by Stephen Jen Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China’s economy beats expectations and TSMC delivers another blockbuster quarter. Plus, attention swings back to Washington, where President Donald Trump renews his feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just as his nominee for chair, Kevin Warsh, prepares to face Congress next week. Today’s recommended read: In the world of war and rivalry, tech is the victor, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. blockade on Iranian portsis still in force, but the S&P 500 is back flirting with record highs. Plus, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh heads to Congress next week — with just a month to get confirmed before Jerome Powell steps down. Today’s recommended read: Back to square one? Markets bet Iran war is over, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wall Street rebounds to pre-war levels as markets shift focus to earnings. Goldman Sachs delivers standout results, though its stock slips. Meanwhile, the IMF prepares fresh economic forecasts as oil shocks and slowing trade complicate the global outlook. Today’s recommended read: Orban's fall clears another roadblock for European markets by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil markets react as the U.S. says it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz following collapsed Iran talks, and U.S. President Donald Trump warns Americans to expect prolonged high fuel prices. And Europe sees a political shift after Hungary’s Viktor Orban is defeated at the polls. Today’s recommended read: Trump returns to weary and failing playbook with Hormuz blockade threat by Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices