More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us. Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one. Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers. And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on [email protected]: Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an EnvelopePresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one. Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Sound Mix: James Beard Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.Contributors: Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’ Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy AssociatesCredits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What does it mean if you say that something is an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it is spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected. When a disease isn’t on the rise but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that the disease is endemic. But what if the thing you’re talking about is not a virus, but a feeling? In 2023, the US surgeon general launched a report called “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation”, warning of the health harms of being lonely and socially isolated. The idea that there is an epidemic of loneliness didn’t start there - the term was already in use in the US in the 2010s. And it’s a phrase that’s still going strong, popping up in news stories on a regular basis. After that warning from the US Surgeon General, the World Health Organisation launched the Commission on Social Connection, with their director general warning that “more and more people are finding themselves isolated and lonely.”But is it true that loneliness rates are increasing? Is it right to say we’re in the midst of an epidemic of loneliness? It’s hard to find the data that backs up this claim.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email [email protected]:Professor Melody Ding, an epidemiologist and population behavioural scientist at the University of SydneyCREDITS:Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right.In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too.Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey.How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: [email protected]:Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPBCREDITS Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

It’s said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe? Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the solution to a problem he'd been working on for seven years - a fifty-year-old conundrum known as "Erdos Problem 1196". The answer had been generated in just 80 minutes - by ChatGPT. Since the end of last year, AI has been providing solutions to a number of novel maths problems, but Problem 1196 is the first to raise eyebrows within the mathematical community. In this episode, we talk to the mathematicians who've worked on Problem 1196 and find out what the rise of AI could mean for the future of their field. CONTRIBUTORS: Katie Steckles, Mathematician and communicator Jared Duker Lichtman, Szegő Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Stanford University Liam Price, amateur mathematician Credits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death.Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes.But the World Health organisation is also concerned about vaping. Last year they said 100 million people around the world are now using e-cigarettes, including millions of children, and warned that they were fuelling a new wave of nicotine addiction.But how do the health risks of these two means of getting nicotine into your bloodstream compare?According to a recent headline in the Daily Mail, they’re basically the same. Here’s the headline:“Vaping is linked to lung and mouth cancer in major study, as experts warn: 'It is NOT safer than smoking’”But is vaping really just as bad for you as smoking?CONTRIBUTOR:Professor Lion Shahab, Co-Director of the UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research GroupCREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

If you spend much time on social media, and we don’t necessarily recommend it, then you’ve probably come across a strange fascination with water consumption.Mainly, this is people telling you that using AI is terrible for the planet because of how much water it uses. We’ve already made a couple of programmes about the numbers in those arguments and, long story short, they probably aren’t saying what you think they’re saying. But on platforms like X, BlueSky, and TikTok, an opportunity to keep an argument going is rarely missed And one of the numbers that’s been enlisted in that glorious cause concerns the water that’s used for a seemingly unrelated past-time - eating beef. Here’s an example from a user on X:“A kilogram of beef requires over 15,000 litres of water to produce,” they wrote. “A vegan who uses ChatGPT every day is living a more sustainable lifestyle than someone who regularly eats beef while boycotting AI.”Ignoring the AI part, is that true? Does it actually take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef? It turns out that the number isn’t wrong, but it probably isn’t saying what you think it’s saying.If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: [email protected]: Mesfin Mekonnen, Assistant Professor at the University of Alabama Mark Mulligan, Professor of Physical and Environmental Geography at King's College London Tim Hess, Professor of Water and Food Systems at Cranfield University CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Emma Harth Editor: Richard Vadon

Vaccine policy in the US is something of an ideological battleground. Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr is a vaccine sceptic, and since taking office he has attempted to remake US vaccine policy. In March a judge blocked his proposal to cut the number of jabs that are recommended for kids. At the same time, last year saw the worst measles outbreak in the US in decades. There were more than 2000 cases last year, and three people died. There have been more than 1500 cases so far in 2026. There’s a lot going on, so it’s possible the public’s views on vaccination are shifting. A new poll published by online news site Politico added a big claim into the mix. According to the headline “more Americans doubt vaccine safety than trust it”. But is that what the survey actually found? Dr David Higgins, a paediatrician and public health assistant professor who writes a Substack called Community Immunity, explains why he believes the headline is misleading. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email [email protected] Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

US president Donald Trump is no fan of wind turbines, or windmills as he calls them.Not only does he think they ruin the view from a golf course he owns in Scotland, but they are also deadly to birds.“If you love birds, you’d never want to walk under a windmill,” he said in 2019. “It’s a very sad, sad sight. It’s like a cemetery. We put a little statue for the poor birds.”Earlier this year he posted on Truth Social saying that wind turbines were killing “millions” of birds.But is that true? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and senior researcher at the University of Oxford, who has dug into the numbers on bird mortality and wind turbines.Credits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

Sometimes it is obvious to everyone when an idea is harmful, or a piece of advice is damaging. But not always. Occasionally bad ideas and terrible advice end up being accepted in society and supported by people in authority.In such circumstances, one of the most powerful tools for changing people's minds is evidence – scientific studies that show beyond doubt that the bad idea is, indeed, a bad idea.That's the subject of a new book by Helen Pearson, titled Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works.An editor at the scientific journal Nature in her day job, the book chronicles those determined individuals who shake up the status quo by gathering just the right kind of evidence.One story in that book stood out to us on More or Less as it shows just what happens when you don't have the evidence you need to challenge a dangerous way of doing things.It's the story of a piece of advice from childcare expert Dr Benjamin Spock.In a 1958 revision of his bestselling parenting guide Baby and Childcare he made a small change to his advice on sleeping position – advising parents to put their babies to sleep on their front.It eventually became clear that this sleeping position was associated with a significant increase in the risk of sudden infant death, or cot death.CREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

When you’re listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening.   A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility”, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely", the relegation of your favourite football team is “possible”.But when you hear these terms, do you really know what kind of probabilities they’re trying to convey? Do you know how likely “likely” is? Or what probability “probable” is meant to get across?In some cases, it seems you probably don't.Professor Adam Kucharski, author of Proof, the Uncertain Science of Certainty, designed a quiz to work out the actual probabilities of the language we use to convey risks.The data he got back shows how sometimes these words mean very different things to different people.If you want to try the quiz for yourself, head over to https://probability.kucharski.io/Email the More or Less team: [email protected] CREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

As Artificial Intelligence continues to expand rapidly, some people have raised concerns about its potential environmental impact - in particular its use of water, which is used to cool both data centres and the power generators that supply them with electricity.One recent book on AI contained the alarming prediction that AI could consume between 4 and 6 trillion litres a year by 2027. Could this eye-popping figure be right? If not, what is the correct figure, and is it a big number?The devil, as ever, is in the detail, and with the help of expert Alex de Vries-Gao, the More or Loss team has taken a deep dive to get to the truth about AI and water consumption.If you’ve seen a number in the news and you think More or Less should take a look, email the team on [email protected]: Charlotte McDonald Producer / Reporter: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

Paul Ehrlich’s bestselling book The Population Bomb opens with an apocalyptic paragraph. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over,” it states. “In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”Professor Ehrlich, who died last week, made a simple argument. The global population was outrunning our capacity to produce enough food to feed everyone. Famine, disease and nuclear Armageddon would follow if the population was not controlled.The book made him a celebrity, and he regularly spoke in public, warning of the imminent threat to humanity. Sometimes his warnings were quite vague in terms of the timescale, but other times not - he was reported as saying in 1968 that if current trends continued, by the year 2000, the UK would be a “small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people". "If I were a gambler," he was quoted as saying, "I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000".But the UK did not collapse, the global death rate did not increase, and we have more food per person now than when he wrote the book. So, what went wrong with Paul Ehrlich's predictions of a population apocalypse?If you’ve seen a number or claim that you think More or Less should look at, email [email protected] CONTRIBUTORSVincent Geloso, Assistant Professor of economics at George Mason UniversityDarrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of Empty Planet, the Shock of Global Population DeclinePeter Alexander, Professor of Global Food Systems at the University of EdinburghCREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

In most sports, men compete against men and women compete against women. That is generally considered fair, because men are faster, more powerful and have greater endurance.But there is an ongoing controversy about transgender women - people who were born male and now identify as women. Is it fair for them to compete in the women’s sport category or do they have an advantage?A study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine recently added to the debate with an analysis that found the strength and fitness of transgender women is “comparable” with that of women.More or Less looks into the research to explain what it does, and does not, say.Contributors:Professor Alun Williams, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityCredits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

On Saturday 28th February, the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting the country's missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership.In response, Iran launched a wave of strikes across the region, including on Israel and the Gulf states.Iran has a stockpile of ballistic missiles, which it’s firing at neighbouring countries. These countries in turn are using interceptor missiles to try and shoot them down.But is it clear who will run out of missiles first?Contributor:Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson CenterCredits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Tom Brignell Editor: Richard Vadon

Have a million new species just been discovered?That’s the claim made by Dr Oliver Vince, co-founder of a company called Basecamp Research, who are collecting genetic data to train AI systems. The hope is that they’ll be able to use this to discover new medicines.But is this number a good one? Rob Finn, from the European Bioinformatics Institute, explains what is being counted and how you go about counting them.Credits: Presenter and producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

AI can make mistakes – and AI chatbots like ChatGPT warn you about that whenever you ask them anything.These mistakes sometimes involve making up entirely fictitious, factually false statements known as “hallucinations”.Whether these hallucinations matter depends on what you’re using AI for, and whether they are spotted and corrected.The team on More or Less were slightly surprised to read a headline in Fortune magazine, claiming that a top academic AI conference accepted research papers which contained 100 AI-hallucinated citations.You might think that the top AI researchers in the world would be careful about using AI to write their research papers.Alex Tui, CTO and co-founder of GPTZero – whose company discovered the hallucinations – explains what’s going on.CREDITS: Presenter and producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: James Beard Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon

Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it’s been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an astonishing $15 billion dollars today, and it’s a figure that’s stuck. But should we believe it? Duncan Weldon talks to ancient historian Professor Mary Beard from the University of Cambridge to learn more about the big business of chariot racing, and how we should think about money and wealth in the economies of the past. Presenter: Duncan Weldon Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Chelsea striker Liam Delap has recently stunned fans on Instagram by apparently doing incredibly complicated calculations in his head, finding what’s known as the cube root of some very large numbers.But is he really a human calculator? Or is there something else going on? Tim Harford speaks to Rob Eastaway, mathematician and author of ‘Maths on the Back of an Envelope’ to learn about the trick you can use to pull this off - and while he’s here we also ask him about the trend of more goals being scored in the Premier League.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard Credit: Video of Liam Delap from Chelsea’s Instagram account, chelseafc

Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to drill down into the numbers.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits?Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong?Are 1990s pop icons Right Said Fred right about what they said about church attacks?Is a sauna really ten times as hot as Wales in the winter?And Tim hits the science lab treadmill to find out if he can run a four-hour marathon.If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email [email protected]: Gareth Morgan, benefits expert and author of the Benefits in the Future blog Joe Shalam, policy director of the Centre for Social Justice Professor Kelly Morrison, head of physics at Loughborough University Dr Danny Muniz, a senior lecturer in Exercise Physiology at the University of HertfordshireCredits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light.YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island. So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first place? And are there any alternatives?Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: How far away is Greenland from the United States? We check a number From Our Own Correspondent. Does converting our entire energy system to be carbon neutral come with a £7.6 trillion price tag?Is the inevitable rise of house prices in the UK not so inevitable after all? Can the great mathematicians of history answer the question of the hour: how to play The Traitors? If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email [email protected]: Jay Foreman, one half of YouTube duo the Map Men Mike Thompson, chief economist of the National Energy System Operator David Turver, author of The Cost of Net Zero, a report from the Institute of Economic Affairs Neal Hudson, housing market analyst and founder housing research website BuiltPlace Dr Kat Phillips, mathematician and Innovation research associate at the University of Warwick, Traitors aficionado Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk. However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right? Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths? Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct? s there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise. If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email [email protected] Contributors: Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US. But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth. At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone. Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up and running at full capacity within 18 months.But can they, and why is it that estimates for other countries oil reserves have fluctuated but Venezuela’s has stayed at 300 billion barrels for over two decades? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates:Has 98% of the UK’s population growth come from immigration?Do we spend more on benefits in the UK than in other high-income countries?Is the gap between rich and poor growing?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: [email protected]:Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Lukas Lehner, Assistant Professor at the University of Edinburgh Arun Advani, Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation and a Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick. Alex Scholes, Research Director at NatCenCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:Are one in four pensioners millionaires?Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern IrelandAre our prisons going to run out of space?Is the weather getting weirder?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: [email protected]: Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Harry Fletcher-Wood, Director of Training at StepLab John Jerrim, Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College London Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College LondonCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis?Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries?Is violent crime going up or down?Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: [email protected]:Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of OxfordCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS:Has life expectancy in the UK starting to go up again at last?What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS?After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs?What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK?What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: [email protected]:Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP) Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal StudiesCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy:Is the cost-of-living crisis over?The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number?When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services?Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK?Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: [email protected]:Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial TimesCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. Who really does all the housework? Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe?Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750."Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say.Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures.We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend?Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls. Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade. This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate. You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all. So what’s going on? Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. The US is no exception. To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said. We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate. Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard

In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field.These “behavioural economists” used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth.One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies” in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner’s Curse - first published in 1992. His work also won him the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 2017.More than 30 years on, he has returned to that book, publishing a new, updated version with co-author Alex Imas, which looks at whether those anomalies in rational thinking have stood the test of time. Tim asks him to set out two of his most famous ideas – the winner’s curse itself, and the idea of “mental accounting”.Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects.So do we have to rely on vibes? Or can we use data to tell us about the risk that AI might go pop?Nathan Gower discovers what the numbers tell us about the health of the stock market.Guests: Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure LiberumPresenter and Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Andy Mills

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email [email protected] Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicolas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again. One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: "a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime, over a 40 or 50 year career. Today, 1 out of every 3 kids who walks through his office door is prediabetic or diabetic. Twenty years ago, there was no diabetes in China, today 50% of the population is diabetic' Diabetes does carry a huge burden of health, but are his numbers right and how much of a problem is diabetes in the US and around the globe? We speak to diabetes expert and co-author of the Diabetes Atlas, Professor Dianna Magliano to find out more. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Studio Manager: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically. Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very big number. But is it true? We speak to Historian Dénes Harai whose paper: 'Counting the Stakes: A Reassessment of Vlad III Dracula’s Practice of Collective Impalements in Fifteenth-Century South-eastern Europe' attempts to set the record straight. Let's travel back to 1431 to separate the math's from the myth. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer. Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production” - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work”, that is, paid work. If you’re the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she’s got some stats you should hear.Tim sat down to talk it all over while Corinne was in the UK to promote her new book on the subject - titled Femonomics in the UK, and Having It All in the US.Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth”. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? We turn the tables on our presenter Tim Harford, to explain all.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: [email protected]: Lizzy McNeill Reporter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard VadonImage credit: Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are getting free cars from the government because they have ADHD and anxiety. Is that right?The chair of the Labour party says that only 3% of farmers will be affected by proposed changes to inheritance tax. Is that true?The charity Movember claim that two in five men die too young. What does that really mean?And Tim’s mid-life crisis has manifested itself in a marathon run. We ask a scientist if data can help him finish faster.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: [email protected]: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were foreign nationals.Citing statistics from the Council of Europe, he references Greece, Germany and Austria, as having rates around 50%.“In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland,” he said “72% of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland.” These numbers are correct, but why are the percentages so high – particularly in Switzerland?Tim Harford speaks to Professor Marcelo Aebi, a criminologist from the University of Lausanne, who wrote the prisons report for the Council of Europe.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: [email protected]: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Mail says that over half of the UK population live in households that get more in benefits than they pay in tax - is it true?Do some billionaires earn more in a night than the population of Bournemouth earns in a year? New Green leader Zack Polanski seems to think so - we scrutinise the figures.Are older generations getting smarter?Have 77% of Gen-Z brought a parent along to a job interview? Really?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: [email protected]: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon