About this episode
Our guest this week is Jason Pipkin. Jason is a neuroscientist who gambles semi-professionally on elections at predictit.org. We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com , or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge . podcast Click to listen - Alt click to download Show Notes [00:00] Introduction of Jason Pipkin, frequent bettor at Predictit.org[00:58] How did Jason get started on Predictit.org?[02:48] Jason's background and predictingpolitics.com[04:30] Commissions and contract limits[10:26] Biden and Trump double max contract example[12:35] Liquidity and market efficiency[14:35] Can personal political biases affect profitability?[16:04] Arbitrage[17:38] Trading frequency[18:45] Volatility[20:16] Holding periods and exit strategy[21:28] Black swan betting[23:08] 2016 Presidential election market strategies[24:42] FiveThirtyEight.com[25:48] Computer analysis and modeling[26:59] Predictit.org market forums[28:40] What percentage of bettors in political markets are profitable?[31:24] Straddles[32:47] Determinants of volatility[36:12] Foreign elections[38:30] South Point Casino September Promotions - $500,000 Guaranteed Money Madness[39:22] Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small bets on various political events[39:55] BlackjackApprenticeship.com - card counting training site and community[40:25] VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers corrections on most games[41:47] Market suggestions[43:20] Similarities to options trading[45:24] Holding contracts until expiry[48:39] How can listeners contact Jason?[49:10] Discussing gambling in personal relationships[50:28] Recommended - MyNoise.net Sponsored Links:SouthPointCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackjackApprenticeship.comVideoPoker.com/gwae Jason's Links:PredictingPolitics.comTwitter.com/jipkin Recommended:MyNoise.net . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices