About this episode
* Earlier this morning we got the first look at Q4 GDP * As I suggested on the last podcast, in fact as I have been saying all along * We did see a sharp decline from the Q3 3.5% GDP * The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in Q4 * And we came in at 1.9% * Quite a way below estimates and psychologically below the 2% number * Part of the reason was a big drop in exports * I talked about this last quarter * One of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP * Was the big surge in soybean exports, because of a drought overseas * Which created a temporary increase for U.S. beans * The rest of it was an inventory build, which I still think needs to be worked off * In fact, I think we're going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year * That's the first estimate, and, who knows, they may downward revise it the next time they give us the numbers * If you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth, and use the first estimate for Q4 * For the entire year of 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6% * That is the lowest number since 2009, tied with 2011, at 1.6% also * If you remember 2011 GDP growth was so weak that they launched QE3 for 2012 * So they ended QE2, the economy started rolling over * And when they got that 1.6% GDP for the entire year * The Fed very quickly came out and launched QE3 the following year to goose the GDP back up * What are they doing now? Not only is the Fed not preparing to launch another round of QE * They are tightening monetary policy * They're saying, "We're going to raise interest rates 3 times, even though GDP is as low as it has been for the entire "recovery' * Even though the economy is decelerating, we are going to sedate it with rate hikes Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy