About this episode
* S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high * Dollar continues to fall * The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news * Lower dollar will be the trend * Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news * Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years * Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired * Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assumes a certain number of businesses created each month * What if these businesses are not actually created? * This would explain lower number of unemployment claims * There's no way we can say that the economy is the best it has been in 42 years * Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was weak last month, expected to be +5, came in at 3.09; below estimate for the 4th month in a row * Both Business Expectations and Hiring declined from April to May * Industrial Production Capacity Utilization was expected to be flat; down again .3% * This is not the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Industrial Production; longest losing streak since 2009 * Consumer Sentiment Number 95.9 in April - expected to hold steady - came in at 88.6; biggest drop since December 2012, and biggest miss ever * If the job market is so strong, why is confidence plunging? * The percentage of employees who fear losing their jobs is at highest level since March of 2009 * The bubble is rapidly deflating * Unofficially, I think we have been in recession for the entire "recovery" * The government is not accurately measuring inflation in the GDP deflator * The Fed has not forecast a single recession * Recessions always happen contrary to forecasts * If we are in a recession there can not be a rate hike * At some point they are going to have to acknowledge that the numbers are not accurate * The unemployment rate is going to have to tick up at soe point this year * At some point after the end of the quarter it will become obvious that there is no rate hike coming * The only question is, What is the Fed going to do? * The Fed has not managed to shrink the balance sheet, and further QE will take the deficit to a whole new level * This will put massive downward pressure on the dollar * Oil prices will spike * Cheap gas prices did not create a bounce in Q1 * Consumer Confidence will plunge * Reality is finally going to set in on the failure of the Fed monetary policy Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy