About this episode
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL week 9 recap and much more. RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 9 before Monday Night Football, starting with Kyler Murray’s benching and market reactions showing roughly a two-point QB difference. They discuss how slow information moves during the sports equinox and debate sharps versus books on early bets, limit sizes, and the game-theory of dummy moves used by bettors like Billy Walters. Fezzik notes boomerang line moves and how fakeouts create opportunities; RJ cites studies showing originators hit 57 percent and those betting three points worse break even. They analyze RJ’s Houston–Denver under “pleaser” win and Fezzik’s data on key numbers shifting: sevens less valuable now because teams go for two, making eight and one more important. Their math argues games landing on three will drop from ten percent to lower under new rules. They segue to the fairness of ties and hockey’s three-point system, debating game theory and equilibrium in overtime. Fezzik likens NHL overtime strategy to poker chops and argues ties should yield shared points without creating asymmetric rewards. They shift to Seattle’s dominant but misleading win, noting fourth-quarter coasting makes them better than stats show, a live-bet underdog/under opportunity. JSN and Sam Darnold shine; Darnold ranks #1 PFF, #3 QBR, ahead of Dak, Herbert and Stafford. They recall past QBR outliers like Case Keenum and Carson Wentz to stress sample-size limits. Power ratings place Seattle fifth behind KC, Baltimore, Buffalo, and Rams; RJ and Fez praise Neflo Robbie Greer’s method of regressing models toward market lines. They break down Buffalo’s dominant win over KC: Allen efficient, Mahomes didn’t run despite career-high rushing rates, dropping Chiefs to 5-4 and underdogs in the division. They debate statistical versus score truth—acknowledging randomness, unknown factors and trench play as the real signal. Fezzik upgrades Buffalo ½ point. They examine Chargers–Titans (Chargers dominant despite defensive/special-teams scores) and model turnover EPA (~4.7 points each). Injuries lower Chargers value by ≈0.3 points. RJ vents about a bet graded wrong on a kick-return first down and argues books must follow NFL stats; Fez agrees. They dissect Mahomes/Allen rushing parlay correlation—Fez expected slight negative via kneel-downs, RJ argues positive peer rivalry correlation; priced +550 was great value. They analyze Pittsburgh’s turnover-driven win over Indy and how strip sacks are earned turnovers. Parity dominates the league: no elite team, ≈12 can win it. They link Super Bowl value to number-one-seed odds (Eagles, Rams, Seahawks top NFC; Bills favorite AFC). They cover Packers’ phony loss, youth and immaturity; Philly–Green Bay line movement; Denver’s win helped by Stroud’s injury; Bears–Bengals defenseless shootout; 49ers’ grit and Dart’s poise; Giants’ and Dayball’s decline; Indy’s fragility pre-Germany trip but historical ATS records of teams before international games; Vikings’ upset of Detroit; and how poorly disciplined teams commit false starts near the goal line. They close on coaching styles—grit versus modernity—and agree no team rates above +5 in power rankings. RJ signs off for their Wednesday pick show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices