About this episode
Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg discuss the latest stories around baseball with a look at the betting markets. 📌 Key Points 📈 Sweep Betting System: Favorites in Game 3 of a potential sweep are 10-4; home teams avoiding sweeps are 8-2 (Profits: +$485 and +$565 respectively). 📉 Underdog Performance: Underdogs in sweep games are only 6-10 and show a betting loss of -$201. 🧠 Bullpen Strategy: Managers often signal “conceding” games by bullpen usage patterns, saving top relievers when already behind — criticized by Towers. 📊 Live Betting Strategy: Scott suggests betting the live over (total runs) when a favorite is losing slightly late-game, offering more margin than moneyline bets. ⚾ Player Highlight – Garrett Crochet: 7 no-hit innings, AL Cy Young favorite at +210. FIP showcases true dominance (1.23). 🔥 Paul Skenes & Hunter Greene: Both NL Cy Young co-favorites at +300; Greene's 0.98 ERA over 27.2 IP stands out. Skenes’ FIP: 1.31. 🧠 FIP vs ERA: Discussed how FIP is a better measure of pitcher skill than ERA, avoiding fielding biases. 🫂 Mental Health in Baseball: Jarren Duran’s Netflix revelation about suicidal thoughts mirrors Drew Robinson’s survival and advocacy — sparking a deep talk on pressures in the minors. 🏆 Award Markets: MVP races led by Judge (AL) and Ohtani (NL); Rookie of Year watch features Jacob Wilson and Christian Campbell. 📉 Yankees’ Defensive Issues: Fried gave up 7 runs, only 3 earned — exposing the team's fielding liability. 📚 Summary Sweep Systems Analysis (0:02–3:05): Scott shares sweep avoidance betting data: favorites avoiding a sweep are 10-4; home teams 8-2; total teams 16-15. Betting on underdogs yields a -$201 return. Josh agrees that lineup decisions, like resting stars after series wins, influence outcomes. Managerial Decisions and Lineup Psychology (3:07–5:56): Josh explains how internal clubhouse dynamics affect lineup decisions. Players want to win series, not necessarily every game. Managers often rest regulars after clinching series wins, affecting competitiveness. Bullpen Usage Patterns (6:23–9:15): Josh criticizes managers for "conceding" games too early, using low-leverage relievers when down by just a couple of runs — citing Twins and Dodgers examples. Live Betting Strategy Deep Dive (11:11–14:24): Scott explains betting over on total runs (e.g., over 6.5) when a favorite is down 2-1. Offers more paths to winning than a comeback moneyline. Towers supports it, adding poor bullpen use often leads to late runs. Betting Woes and Run Expectancy (15:52–17:10): Scott laments losing an over 6.5 bet despite having a man on 3rd with 0 outs — supported by run expectancy matrix (1.43 runs expected). No run was scored. Old-School Strategy Missing in MLB (19:32–24:32): They debate modern strategy failings — no bunts, no hit-and-runs, poor situational hitting. Citing a Red Sox missed opportunity where Devers could have pulled a single if the runner hadn't been caught stealing. Mental Health – Duran & Robinson (25:01–29:17): Heartfelt discussion about Duran’s suicidal thoughts (from Netflix series), drawing parallels to Drew Robinson’s survival. Towers praises transparency and advocates teaching players how to fail and cope. Cy Young Odds Breakdown (29:17–35:38): AL: Crochet (+210), Skubal (+425) NL: Skenes & Greene (+300), Schwellenbach (+550) Schwellenbach: 0.45 ERA, 20 IP; FIP 2.35 Yamamoto: 1.23 ERA in 22 IP FIP vs ERA Debate (40:00–41:40): Chris Bassitt leads FIP rankings (1.20). Scott and Josh stress writers will prioritize advanced metrics like FIP over surface stats like ERA or W-L record when voting for awards. Team Performance Trends (45:01–48:07): Padres: 10-0 at home, 13 wins total — only undefeated home team. White Sox (0-6), Rays & Mariners (0-3) winless on road. Dodgers' run differential = 0, despite high expectations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices