About this episode
RJ Bell, Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik talk NFL Week 3 recap and more. The Week 3 NFL recap dives into key team performances, player highlights, and betting strategies. The podcast, hosted by RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg, and Mackenzie Rivers, opens with a breakdown of Monday Night Football, highlighting the Buffalo Bills’ dominance over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Buffalo’s strong defense and offensive firepower stood out, while Jacksonville’s early-season struggles raised concerns. A key focus was the Cincinnati Bengals’ disappointing start. Fezzik and Bell discussed how the Bengals, with a soft schedule, have underperformed, leading to a downgrade in their power rating. Their upcoming game against Carolina will be critical for their season trajectory. Meanwhile, Washington earned praise for exceeding expectations, showing solid defensive play and warranting an upgrade in their power rating. Fezzik shared insights into betting on in-season win totals, explaining how calculating win shares based on the likelihood of winning each game helps bettors identify value. This strategy is particularly useful early in the season, when teams' strengths and weaknesses are still being revealed. The San Francisco 49ers were also a major topic of discussion, given their injury struggles. Despite losing key offensive players like Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers remain competitive. Fezzik and Bell agreed that the team should not be significantly downgraded, thanks to quarterback Brock Purdy’s solid performance. A broader conversation on the NFL’s growing trend of aggressive fourth-down calls sparked debate. Bell and Fezzik noted that while going for it on fourth down used to be innovative, defenses have now adjusted, and this strategy is less effective. Betting trends also emerged as a central theme. Fezzik highlighted the fact that teams exceeding the ATS margin by 50 or more points in the first three weeks often struggle to cover the spread in Week 4. This applies to both the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, two teams that have dominated early but face tougher competition ahead. Bettors should be cautious of inflated lines following such performances. The Los Angeles Rams earned credit for their gutsy comeback against the injury-depleted 49ers. McVay’s coaching prowess kept the Rams competitive despite numerous setbacks, warranting a slight power rating upgrade. On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboys’ defensive struggles were dissected. Two consecutive weeks of being overpowered by strong rushing attacks from Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have led to a significant downgrade in their power rating. Bettors should be wary of trusting Dallas until they can shore up their run defense. As the discussion shifted to the Minnesota Vikings, the panel emphasized that their early success and dominance have inflated betting lines. While the Vikings have impressed through Week 3, history suggests they may struggle to cover the spread in Week 4, particularly against stronger opponents like the Green Bay Packers. In summary, Week 3 of the NFL season provided a mix of surprises and disappointments, with some teams like Buffalo and Washington outperforming expectations, while others like Cincinnati and Dallas are struggling. The panel shared key insights for bettors, stressing the importance of in-season win totals, ATS trends, and cautious evaluation of inflated lines. Looking ahead to Week 4, teams like Minnesota and Buffalo may face challenges, while Washington continues to rise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices