About this episode
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Wild-Card betting. The guys talk through each game and offer the best picks. Dave Essler also provides a best bet. 🏈 Key Game Analysis Texans vs. Chargers Steve Fezzik (3:28-6:41) : Fezzik endorses Houston (+3), citing the strength of schedule trend (32-12 ATS for teams with significantly tougher schedules in Wild-Card games) and his power ratings favoring the Texans. He highlights the 15-spot schedule disparity (Houston: 14th, Chargers: 29th). Scott Seidenberg (7:25-9:51) : Seidenberg supports the Chargers, emphasizing Houston's weak offensive line (29th per PFF) and CJ Stroud's struggles against split-safety coverage (21st passer rating). The Chargers’ defensive scheme and top-4 efficiency against motion offenses are also noted. RJ Bell (11:20-13:12) : Bell debates Houston's perceived downturn but concludes Houston hasn't been atrocious, leaning toward the Texans based on line value. Ravens vs. Steelers Mackenzie Rivers (16:11-17:12) : Rivers backs the Ravens (-9.5), emphasizing Baltimore’s league-best metrics and superior strength of schedule. Lamar Jackson's playoff dominance is noted. Scott Seidenberg (19:04-21:11) : Seidenberg highlights the Steelers' defensive decline (29th in EPA over the final three games) due to a diminished pass rush, advocating for the Ravens’ team total over 27.5. Dave Essler (34:00-35:17) : Essler favors Baltimore (-6 first half), citing a massive scoring disparity (+112 against playoff teams for Baltimore vs. -30 for Pittsburgh). Betting Takeaways : The panel leans toward Baltimore's offensive success, with concerns about Pittsburgh's recent defensive struggles. Broncos vs. Bills Scott Seidenberg (42:09-44:17) : Allen’s rushing prop (longest rush over 13.5 yards) is highlighted, with the Broncos’ blitzing tendencies creating opportunities for Allen to scramble effectively. Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell (45:18-45:32) : Discussion contrasts Allen’s rushing tendencies against dominant teams versus blowout scenarios, favoring over 41.5 total rushing yards. Statistical Context : Buffalo’s balanced metrics place them as heavy favorites, but Denver's blitz rate and game script could lead to unexpected Allen rushing outcomes. Packers vs. Eagles RJ Bell (45:54-48:08) : Bell emphasizes Green Bay’s defensive focus, favoring under 24.5 points for Philadelphia due to historical data showing teams losing consecutive games before playoffs clamp down defensively (12-3 ATS trend). Scott Seidenberg (50:06-51:28) : Seidenberg predicts a run-heavy game, backing Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts. Green Bay’s reliance on its running game is noted, especially with Jordan Love’s elbow issue. Steve Fezzik (53:12-53:28) : Strength of schedule disparity (Packers: 6th, Eagles: 32nd) further supports betting value on Green Bay. Rams vs. Vikings RJ Bell (1:12:58-1:14:48) : Bell highlights Minnesota’s overall consistency and coaching edge, favoring the Vikings despite red-zone struggles. Mackenzie Rivers (1:15:07-1:15:19) : Points out the Rams' lack of offensive production in recent games, scoring just 12, 19, and 13 points. Betting Context : Minnesota’s reliability against weaker teams and the Rams’ challenges with injuries and a poor defensive showing (worst in playoffs) position the Vikings as favorites. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices