Dream Podcast - NFL Preseason Preview + Fezzik Betting Boot Camp !

Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik talk all things NFL this week. 🏈 Preseason Player & Team Analysis (00:04 - 10:21) 🔉 Scott Seidenberg (00:04 - 03:40) predicted Matthew Stafford might miss the first two regular-season games due to back issues. He recommended betting under Stafford’s 3,750 passing yards , which later adjusted to 3,600 yards , reinforcing his view as information from Ian Rapoport confirmed an aggravated disc and epidural injections. 📉 Steve Fezzik (03:42) underscored epidurals only mask pain and don't cure the injury, supporting the under bet. He further advocated betting Rams under 10 wins or missing the playoffs . 📊 Line movement insight (04:34) : Rams moved from -3 to -2.5 vs. Texans. If Jimmy G starts due to Stafford’s absence, Seidenberg speculated the line might swing to Rams -1.5 or even Texans pick’em , emphasizing Houston's +2 power rating versus Rams' -2 , potentially setting Houston -4 on neutral , or -3 in LA . 💡 Week 2 warning (06:22) : No change in line Rams -5.5 at Titans , making it a value opportunity if Stafford remains out. Fezzik liked Titans +5.5 due to their "bet-on" team profile. ⚠️ Seidenberg’s fear (07:31) : Titans could be the “sharp’s darling disappointment” like last year’s Panthers. Fezzik argued Panthers were victims of defensive injuries, not poor form. 🧠 Survivor Strategy : Parsons’ absence could impact Cowboys @ Eagles . Fezzik emphasized picking Eagles in survivor pools rather than betting -7 , since early success reduces entry value risk, quoting: “Your entry, moron, isn’t even worth $1000... and you haven’t won yet.” (14:05) 🔥 Burrow Plays : Bengals starters including Joe Burrow will open vs. Eagles. Play Bengals 1Q -0.5 (-170) as Eagles start Tanner McKee . Total: 37 —Fezzik prefers Week 1 unders when totals exceed 37. 🔄 Raiders vs Seahawks : Pete Carroll (28-20 preseason) may care more facing former team. Avoid assuming no motivation. 📊 Quarter and half-line strategies : Favor betting 1st quarters/halves with starter insights. Seidenberg said: “Starters for one or two drives? Bet the first quarter. Avoid the full game.” Fezzik’s critical note : “In the preseason, the number is just wrong... I actually think I want to lay the six.” (19:20) He emphasized blindly betting steam-chased lines at 6–8 AM PST is profitable. Week 2 targets : Bengals vs Commanders (ESPN MNF) : Bet Bengals (starters will play more). Eagles vs Browns : Eagles are undervalued as Browns starters won’t play (Flacco gets reps in joint practice). Fezzik dismissed betting Eagles in preseason: “Sirianni is McVay. He doesn’t care.” (21:25) Scott Seidenberg’s 2026 insight : “New Bills Stadium blocks wind. In wind games, totals get steamed down… we’ll bet the over.” Contrast: Northwestern’s temp field = wind risk. Alt win totals : Saints under 5.5 = -110 Saints under 4.5 = +140 Saints under 2.5 = +500 Fezzik: only under 4.5 is fair value: “If you get more than 100 cents selling a win, it's good.” 🧠 Teaser Math Lesson : Two-team teaser at -120 = two -280 moneylines Not all -7 spreads have equal MLs: Eagles -7 = ML -340 Commanders -7 = ML -290 49ers -7 = ML -325 Thus, Eagles are teaser-worthy , others aren’t. Fezzik shared 10 out of 50 bootcamp tips : Poker tip : Join new tables—new players = easier money. Diamond status trick : 10x points at Caesars + 30 mins = free hotel stays. Bonus bets : Use for parlays/long shots , not ATS. Soft markets : Bet golf, tennis, obscure sports. Pitcher importance : In HR Derby, pitcher matters more than hitter. Pace betting : Target live college basketball first-half overs/unders. 3-leg parlays : Better odds than 4-legs; lower juice. Avoid 4-leg parlays : Effective juice = -140 , worse value. Betting Round Robins : Mix +EV 3-leggers for long-term win. Medical checkups : Best EV tip—"Get tested." 3-leg teaser (+180) is more +EV than 2-leg at -120. Fezzik warns against 4-leg teasers unless they pay 3:1 or more . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices