About this episode
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk College Football Group of Five betting. 0:05 – 0:31 Opening motivational speech emphasizing speed, defensive swarming, and physical dominance — “Out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” — with a repeated call to “leave no doubt tonight.” 0:31 – 1:19 Griffin Warner Introduces the College Football Podcast episode focusing on Group of Five teams, following a prior episode on the Power Four. Announces a promo code and a college football contest, noting the goal is to identify season-long betting opportunities. Date: Tuesday, 1:45 – 2:33 Griffin Warner Explains that Group of Five games offer strong betting opportunities. Begins with Army (West Point) win total: Over 7.5 at +110, Under 7.5 at -140 on BetOnline. 2:35 – 4:41 Lonte Smith — Army Analysis 2023 Recap: 12–2, AAC champions, led by QB Bryson Daly (dark horse Heisman) and RB Kanye Udo. Losses: Daly to graduation, Udo to Arizona State, two Joe Moore Award-winning offensive tackles, best defensive player to Georgia. Returning Talent: Six of top ten tacklers; LB corps Miller & Thomas praised. Concerns: Offensive drop-off, new OL coach, challenging schedule (Tulane, UTSA, Navy, Air Force). Projection: 7–5 ceiling, 6–6 floor → leans Under 7.5. 4:41 – 6:08 Griffin Warner & Lonte Smith — Schedule Talk Army’s 2024 slate includes K-State, North Texas, Tulane, Air Force, Navy (in Baltimore). Lonte favors Navy among service academies, citing better returning production and depth. 7:16 – 14:52 Western Kentucky (C-USA) Odds: Over 7.5 (-125), Under 7.5 (-105). 2023: 8–6 record. Roster: Only 3 starters return (1 offense, 2 defense). Poor 2023 rush defense (224 YPG). Key Additions: QB Maverick McIver (Abilene Christian, 3,500+ yds, 37 TDs), OC Rick Bowie (former Abilene OC). WR Matt Henry (1,100+ yds at Western Illinois). Concerns: OL continuity, defensive holes, rush defense. Schedule: Winnable home games; road tests at Toledo, Delaware, Missouri State. Projection: ~8.6 wins → leans Over 7.5. 15:43 – 20:22 Bowling Green (MAC) Odds: Over 6.5 (+200), Under 6.5 (-260). 2023: 7–6 (6–2 MAC). Changes: New HC Eddie George; ranked 130th in returning production; offense loses top TE hero Fanning (drafted by Browns). Defense: Loses 13 of top 15 tacklers but adds FCS standouts (including Eddie George’s son). Schedule: Lafayette, Cincinnati, Liberty, Louisville early; Toledo and Buffalo at home. Projection: Depth concerns, brutal early stretch → Under (expects ~4–8). 20:53 – 25:10 Air Force (MWC) Odds: Over/Under 6.5 (-115). 2023: 5–7 after starting 1–7, finished on 4-game win streak. Roster: 9 returning starters (6 offense, 3 defense). QB battle (Johnson favored). OL returns 3 starters plus 2 with experience. Defense: Allowed 23 PPG; DL led by Peyton Zurch. Schedule: Bucknell, Boise, Navy, Wyoming, Army, UNLV, SJSU, UConn. Projection: Manageable slate, strong finish expected → Over 6.5 (7–8 wins). 25:38 – 31:06 Georgia Southern (Sun Belt) Odds: Over 7.5 (+130), Under (-160). 2023: 8–5. Roster: 10 starters return (5 offense, 5 defense). QB J.C. French (2,500+ yds, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 66% comp). Deep WR corps; strong OL with most combined starts in Sun Belt. Defense: Needs rush D improvement; strong secondary led by Chance Gamble. Schedule: Fresno, USC, Jacksonville State, JMU, Coastal, ODU, Marshall. Projection: Favors in most conference games except JMU → Over 7.5 (floor 8 wins). 31:07 – 38:35 Playoff/Long-shot Discussion No strong playoff contenders from teams covered; JMU strong but blocked by JMU matchup for Georgia Southern. Boise State (2–1 to make playoffs) downgraded without RB Ashton Jeanty. Long-shot pick: South Florida (33–1) if QB Byron Brown stays healthy; avoid betting until after tough Miami/Florida stretch. 38:36 – End Best Bet: Army Under 7.5 wins. Rationale: Loss of QB, RB, two elite tackles, new OL coach, tough schedule, regression from 12–2 2023 season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices