About this episode
Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg talk about the hottest teams in Baseball and scour the stats to find BEST BETS for tonight and beyond! 🧠 Key Points & Insights ⚾ Dodgers' Record : 23-11, top in MLB despite a Sunday night loss. Austin Riley’s two homers were decisive. 📈 Tigers' Run Differential : 13-3 at home, 22-13 overall. Managed by A.J. Hinch, praised for non-analytic, intuitive leadership. 📊 Player OPS Standouts : Torkelson (0.889), Carpenter (0.870), Baez (0.829), Torres (0.826), Greene (0.808). 🎯 Aaron Judge Triple Crown Watch : .423 AVG, tied for MLB RBI lead (33), 2nd in HR (11). Odds: +145 to win Triple Crown. 🏅 Alonso's MVP Campaign : 13 doubles, 344 AVG, 31 RBIs. Odds: +650. Noted shift in hitting approach improving contact. 📉 Soto's Output : Criticized as underperforming with repeated mentions of uncapitalized hard contact (113.4 mph EV). 🧮 Pitching Metrics : Yamamoto praised for 2.45 xERA, elite ground ball % (15th). Brown with 1.67 ERA, expected to regress. 🔢 Weather Impact : Wind and ballpark geometry (like Yankee Stadium) analyzed for home run probability adjustments. 📉 Betting Trends : Mondays yield 60.8% overs; best home teams: Dodgers (15-3), Mets (13-3), Tigers (13-3). 🎲 Best Bets Summary : Preferred Nerfys: Yankees-Padres, Cards-Pirates, Royals-White Sox. Fade Dodgers (bullpen day) after SNB. Summary Breakdown Intro & Dodgers Discussion (0:02–1:44) Seidenberg and Towers open with Cinco de Mayo reflections, pivoting to Dodgers' recent form. Dodgers: 23-11 record, top in MLB. Padres (22-11) and Giants (22-13) also praised. Detroit Tigers Rise (1:45–4:07) Towers praises Javi Baez’s resurgence (near-.300 AVG), OPS leaders include Torkelson and Carpenter. Pitching: Skubal (dominant), Mize (5-1), Flaherty (solid). Closer Tommy Kahnle: 1 ER in 12.2 IP, 5 saves. Cardinals & Central Teams (4:56–6:38) Cardinals swept 2 DHs but sit under .500; skepticism remains due to weak pitching and trade rumors (Nolan). Cubs seen as leaders; Reds potential dark horse with Francona mentioned as MoY candidate. Manager of the Year Futures (6:47–8:00) Hinch: AL favorite (+180), Council NL favorite (+160), Francona (+950). Towers values Hinch's preparation and "winning culture" ethos. Judge Triple Crown Analysis (10:05–13:34) Judge: 55/130 (.423); even 0-for-50 slump yields .306 AVG. Recalled near-miss in 2024, faded due to playoff pressure. Compared to Cabrera’s 2012 campaign; lauded for consistent mechanics and mentality. Pete Alonso: MVP Candidacy (17:06–20:26) Alonso’s evolution from HR-focused to gap-to-gap hitter detailed. 344 AVG, 31 RBIs, only 8 HRs; significant reduction in K rate. Towers applauds offseason work and underdog mindset. Soto’s Performance Breakdown (22:48–26:18) Two near-HRs vs. wall in last game; 113.4 EV, robbed once. Needs to stay back and use opposite field. Ex-Yankee Stadium habits analyzed as possible cause of pull-happy tendencies. Advanced Stats: wOBA and xBA (26:18–30:31) Overperformers: Baez (0.364 wOBA vs. 0.294 xwOBA). Underperformers: Salvy Perez (.294 → .412 xwOBA), Andrew Vaughn (expected to rise). Torres, Peterson noted for looming correction. Pitcher Evaluations (31:13–34:38) Hunter Brown: 1.67 ERA, 3.02 xERA, minimal HRs. Yamamoto: 2.45 xERA, elite command; likened to Van Gogh. Logan Webb, Tim Hill, and Seawald discussed for GB/FB tendencies. Betting Angles and Nerfy Focus (40:00–59:13) Monday = best over day (60.8%), Friday next; Wednesday = top under day. Dodgers fade after SNB recommended; under 5.5 team total. Top Nerfy plays: Yankees-Padres, Cardinals-Pirates, White Sox-Royals. Ryan Nelson’s volatility noted; avoided Nerfy on Mets game despite Griffin Canning’s strong record. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices