About this episode
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Mackenzie Rivers and Scott Seidenberg drop a special episode for Super Bowl LIX. Don't miss out on all the picks and the same game parlay. Key Takeaways & Insights 1. Super Bowl Betting Trends Scott Seidenberg (3:31 - 4:05) introduces a 10-0 betting trend where teams that received a first-round bye (like the Chiefs) are 0-10 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl. Steve Fezzik (5:17 - 5:36) cautions about the validity of the trend , pointing out that lower-seeded teams (3rd-6th seeds) making the Super Bowl often indicate undervaluation. RJ Bell (8:56 - 9:04) states that in the current NFL playoff structure , upsets are more frequent, making pre-playoff seedings a weak indicator of true team strength. 2. Chiefs’ Strengths & Weaknesses Mackenzie Rivers (12:46 - 12:58) mentions that Patrick Mahomes ranked 8th in QBR this season, which is a drop from his prime years. RJ Bell (13:37 - 14:28) highlights Mahomes’ declining deep-ball passing (Average Depth of Target down from 9.7 yards to bottom five in the league ). Steve Fezzik (16:13 - 16:29) debates how small moments in past Super Bowls (like Jimmy Garoppolo missing a throw) shaped Mahomes' legacy , arguing that one play could have changed the narrative . 3. Eagles’ Strengths & Concerns RJ Bell (15:31 - 16:13) argues that if the season were replayed , the Eagles would likely finish with a better record than the Chiefs . Scott Seidenberg (30:38 - 30:53) points out that the Eagles have dominated turnover battles in the playoffs (10 takeaways, 0 giveaways), while the Chiefs are -1 . 4. Super Bowl Betting Market Moves Scott Seidenberg (16:43 - 17:52) reports a massive bet placed on the Eagles , potentially by legendary bettor Billy Walters . Steve Fezzik (17:19 - 17:39) states that Circa Sports increased their betting limits to $300,000 on Super Bowl wagers. Best Bets & Betting Strategies 5. Same Game Parlay Concepts RJ Bell (21:13 - 22:08) proposes a high-value parlay based on historical game flow tendencies : Chiefs win Mahomes over completions Saquon Barkley over rushing attempts Game total under Payout: +2100 (21-to-1 odds) Steve Fezzik (21:52 - 22:08) notes that if the game total is low, the chance of a huge lead is lower , making the under correlated to a closer game . 6. Alternative Parlay Adjustments RJ Bell (26:05 - 26:09) tweaks the parlay: Mahomes' completions lowered Barkley’s rush attempts reduced Final payout: +700 Scott Seidenberg (43:45 - 44:03) creates another parlay based on a Chiefs blowout: Chiefs -9.5 Barkley 30+ rushing attempts Mahomes 40+ pass attempts Payout: +4600 (46-to-1) Prop Bets & Key Markets 7. Player Prop Bets Jalen Hurts MVP (+350) – If the Eagles win in a close game , Hurts is the most likely MVP . Devonta Smith to lead in receiving yards (+600) – If A.J. Brown is contained , Smith becomes the primary target . JuJu Smith-Schuster receptions over 1.5 (-140) – Sharp money moving this line up suggests heavily bet over . Travis Kelce under receptions & yards – Market overvaluing Kelce’s role, potential sharp fade . 8. Game Script & Live Betting Strategies Fezzik (56:07 - 56:34) suggests betting Eagles live if they fall behind double digits , as they are built to rally . Mackenzie Rivers (1:04:34 - 1:04:41) suggests betting under 6.5 punts , citing historical offensive efficiency . Super Bowl Fun & Gimmick Bets Gatorade Color Shift (58:18 - 58:52) : The betting market moved yellow/green Gatorade from +300 to -295 , indicating inside information . Three Players to Attempt a Pass (+180) : Kansas City & Philly have trick plays and gadget packages that could result in a non-QB passing attempt . Final Betting Recommendations Same Game Parlay (21-to-1 odds) : Chiefs win, Mahomes over completions, Barkley over rushes, game total under . Devonta Smith over receiving yards (+600 to lead all receivers) . Live bet Eagles if they fall behind 10+ points . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices