About this episode
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB bowl betting for this week. The episode opens with Old Dominion versus South Florida in Orlando. South Florida is effectively playing a home game, with the campus located roughly ninety minutes away. The key storyline is Old Dominion missing its starting quarterback, which significantly impacts both the spread and the overall game outlook. Given USF’s offensive upside with Byron Brown and the situational edge, South Florida minus two and a half is viewed as a strong position. There is also interest in the over, based on USF’s ability to score and ODU’s defensive limitations. Next, the conversation shifts to Memphis versus NC State in the Gasparilla Bowl. Both teams play at a fast tempo and rely heavily on explosive plays, while neither defense is considered reliable. The total of fifty eight and a half reflects this, and the over is the preferred angle. NC State receives a slight lean on the side, but that recommendation is contingent on starting quarterback CJ Bailey playing. If Bailey were to sit, bettors are advised to exit both side and total positions immediately, as the offensive profile would change significantly. The third matchup discussed is California versus Hawaii on New Year’s Eve. This game carries multiple storylines, including Cal quarterback JKS returning to his home state. Hawaii is seen as highly motivated in a true home environment, with both teams expected to retain their starting quarterbacks and minimal impactful opt outs at the time of recording. With strong passing attacks on both sides and the ability to respond quickly to deficits, the over is the strongest play, with Hawaii also drawing interest as a pick’em at home. The final game covered is New Mexico versus Minnesota in the Rate Bowl in Phoenix. New Mexico enters off one of its strongest seasons in recent years and is viewed as the more motivated team. Minnesota, meanwhile, may be less engaged in a non-playoff bowl setting. Market behavior holding the line under a field goal is interpreted as respect for New Mexico, and the Lobos are identified as a live underdog with legitimate outright win potential. The official best bets from the episode are South Florida minus two and a half and Hawaii at pick’em. The show also promotes the free Pregame.com College Football Bowl Bash contest, where participants can compete for bulk dollar prizes throughout bowl season. As emphasized throughout the episode, successful bowl betting requires close monitoring of opt outs, motivation levels, quarterback availability, and late-breaking information. Those factors often matter more than raw power ratings during this part of the college football calendar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices