About this episode
Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg look at the standings and stats around baseball here at the All Star Break with BEST BETS for the remainder of the season. At the 2025 MLB All-Star break, the Inside Pitch podcast with Scott Seidenberg and Josh Towers delivers a sharp, numbers-driven midseason analysis. They highlight which teams are outperforming or underperforming expectations based on actual wins versus Pythagorean projections. The Toronto Blue Jays lead the AL East with a 55–41 record but are five wins ahead of their expected total, signaling potential regression. The Yankees are six games below their expected record, indicating possible value in the second half. Injuries and returning players also dominate discussion—Luis Garcia and Christian Javier returning to the Astros’ rotation is likened to acquiring top talent at the trade deadline. Luis Gil’s rehab performance could also bolster the Yankees. Boston’s young squad, led by Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony, is positioned to make a late push if they acquire key pieces like a veteran first baseman or another starter. Win total bets discussed include taking the under on Toronto’s 89.5 projection and over on Houston’s 92.5 due to an easy remaining schedule. The Brewers emerge as the most profitable team in baseball for bettors, returning over $1,300 if wagered on every game. Milwaukee also boasts a 72% win rate as favorites. Advanced pitching stats suggest strong Cy Young cases for Zach Wheeler and long-shot Christopher Sanchez in the National League, while Crochet and Scooble are nearly even statistically in the AL race. Aaron Judge is unanimously favored to win AL MVP, outpacing competitors like Cal Raleigh in nearly every offensive metric. Shohei Ohtani's recent return to pitching enhances his case for NL MVP. The Phillies are picked to win the NL East, with three pitchers having 10+ quality starts, a key measure of reliability. For the postseason, the Yankees, Astros, and Tigers are favorites in the AL, while the Dodgers and Phillies are expected to meet in the NLCS. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are likely Wild Card teams, though the latter are expected to regress. Arizona is projected to fade down the stretch, likely trading veterans like Suarez, Naylor, and perhaps Gallen, and their under-79.5 win total is recommended. Despite offensive firepower, the Diamondbacks’ pitching struggles make them unreliable. Meanwhile, Milwaukee and Chicago are competing in the NL Central, and both are top betting values. Overall, listeners are encouraged to buy into the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros for the second half, and fade teams like Toronto and Arizona. Josh and Scott also touch on key upcoming matchups, strategic deadline considerations, and award markets—recommending Sanchez for NL Cy Young at 20:1 and Crochet at +240 in the AL. They close by predicting the ALCS will feature the Astros and Yankees, while the NLCS will likely be a showdown between the Dodgers and Phillies, pending injury returns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices