TWIST VC Roundtable: Startup Valuations, Secondary Markets & the YC Revenue Illusion | E2137

Today’s show: Alex moderates a TWIST VC Roundtable with Jason, Paige Doherty (Behind Genius), and Altimeter’s Megan Reynolds about the state of early-stage venture capital. They break down the rise of secondary markets as a key liquidity path for VCs, analyze the resurgence in M&A activity from major players like Meta, Databricks, and OpenAI, and question whether inflated ARR figures from YC startups are distorting valuations. Jason shares his year-zero investment thesis and offers tactical advice on secondary structuring and identifying high-quality revenue. Whether you're raising, investing, or building, this episode delivers essential insights into the evolving early-stage landscape. Timestamps: (0:00) Episode Teaser(1:28) Meet our panelists!(2:37) Will secondaries replace traditional M&A?(10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups (14:28) Has M&A actually bounced back?(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.(25:35) Secondary market advice, just for founders(30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today.(32:49) Why is it so hard for emerging managers to raise funds? (38:28) Seed funds: the math is not mathing(52:07) Why early investors become “collateral damage”(56:31) The importance of revenue quality in early-stage startups(1:06:43) Quick Fire Question Round! Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com Check out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.com Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp Links from episode: Altimeter: https://www.altimeter.com/home Behind Genius: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com/ Follow Meghan: X: https://x.com/MeghanKReynolds LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/meghankreynolds/ Follow Paige:X: https://x.com/paigefinnn LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paigedoherty / Follow Alex: X: https://x.com/alex LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm Follow Jason: X: https://twitter.com/Jason LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis Thank you to our partners: (10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups (20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year. (30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today. Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe , Steve Huffman , Brian Chesky , Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie , Sophia Amoruso , Reid Hoffman , Frank Slootman , Billy McFarland Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis Follow TWiST: Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartups TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartups Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@founderuniversity1916