Variance Betting Episode 3 | How To Be a Smarter Premier League Bettor

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more! Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Follow us on our Socials: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Introduction 1:44 Who is Ted Knutson? 2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products 3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds 4:05 Founding StatsBomb 4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com 4:58 Variance Betting Principles 5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses 8:20 Price Shop 10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge 12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky 13:54 Your Bets are your own 14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model 16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams 17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model 18:07 Caveats 21:06 Plugs 20:23 Recreational Sports Betting 22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet 23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet 25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet 26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet 26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet 27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet 28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet 29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet 31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet 32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet 33:31 Recap 33:54 Outro Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.