Episode 125 - Arsenal, City & Liverpool | What the Stats Are Really Saying

In this episode, Patrick and Ted break down the Premier League’s early season and what it tells us about the top teams. We look at Arsenal versus Man City and explore what we’ve learned from this clash of title contenders. Man City’s performance has been strange so far — what does it mean for the rest of the season? Liverpool’s early season numbers aren’t what we expected, so we dig into what’s really going on there. We also touch on Man United versus Chelsea, as well as a roundup of the other Premier League surprises and takeaways. Plus, Ted discusses how analytics-minded fans can start a career in football and what beginners often miss when getting started in the game. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:46 Ted’s Liverpool Tweet 01:49 Liverpools Performance Metrics 02:24 Mo Salah Playing Poorly 02:39 Defensive Liverpool Fans 03:40 Liverpool Crushing Atletico Madrid 05:00 Numbers are Against Liverpool 07:00 Liverpool Can Still Succeed 08:30 Ted's Liverpool Transfer Grades 9:30 Fans That Don't Get Angry and Takes Criticism 10:37 Transfer Grades and Team Analysis 12:00 Ted and Patrick Saving Easy Money for Man U 12:44 Hayden’s Transfer Grades 13:07 Great Players But Are They The Right Fit? 13:30 Transfer Prices Analysis 15:37 Patricks Transfer Grade List 15:55 Brighton Team Analysis 16:46 Brighton Need New Head Coach 17:52 Crystal Palace Performance 21:57 How Players Were Graded in Consultancies 23:00 Arsenal vs Manchester City Analysis 24:10 Haajland Like Cristiano Ronaldo 24:45 Marmoush Helping Man City 25:00 Half-Time Subs 25:30 Arsenal and City Performance Metrics 26:45 Pep Guardiola Management Analysis 27:40 Bayern and Kompany 28:15 Analysing Tactical Adaptations in Football 30:40 Gary Neville Criticising Arsenal 31:33 Arsenal Rebuilding Squad 32:13 Liverpool Comparison to Arsenal 32:41 Media Talking Heads Problem 36:16 Fulham team analysis 36:50 Ted’s worry for Brentford 38:30 Brentford players risk elements in team 39:20 Fulham, The Good and Bad 40:26 Man U vs. Chelsea 41:50 Man U Better Than We Thought 42:05 Chelsea Boring 42:00 Chelsea Team and Tactic Problems 45:00 Jao Pedro Poor Attacking 45:30 Strikers Poorly Playing Lately 45:49 How We Graded 47:11 Patrick and Ted on United 48:33 Ted's Thoughts On Man U 49:21The Intersection of Data and Tactics in Football 51:09 Understanding Football and the Models 54:34 How Ted Knows He's Measuring the Right Data 58:09 Seeing What's Missing and Doesn't Exist 59:55 How to Get Started and Learn from mistakes 1:02:00 Outro