August 20, 2025
Can AI Predict the Future?
The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and AnalysisAbout this episode
A breakthrough benchmark is testing whether AI can actually predict future events by analyzing real-world data. Researchers at the University of Chicago just launched Profit Arena, a new AI evaluation platform that measures "predictive intelligence" by having models forecast outcomes on live prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Early results show AI models like GPT-4 and Claude are already performing as well as or better than human forecasters, with some models finding real market edges - like one AI that correctly predicted a Toronto FC soccer win when the market only gave it 11% odds. This represents a major shift from traditional saturated benchmarks toward dynamic, real-world testing that could reshape how we measure AI progress. Brought to you by: KPMG – Discover how AI is transforming possibility into reality. Tune into the new KPMG 'You Can with AI' podcast and unlock insights that will inform smarter decisions inside your enterprise. Listen now and start shaping your future with every episode. https://www.kpmg.us/AIpodcasts Blitzy.com - Go to https://blitzy.com/ to build enterprise software in days, not months Vanta - Simplify compliance - https://vanta.com/nlw Plumb - The automation platform for AI experts and consultants https://useplumb.com/ The Agent Readiness Audit from Superintelligent - Go to https://besuper.ai/ to request your company's agent readiness score. The AI Daily Brief helps you understand the most important news and discussions in AI. Subscribe to the podcast version of The AI Daily Brief wherever you listen: https://pod.link/1680633614 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://aidailybrief.beehiiv.com/ Interested in sponsoring the show? nlw@breakdown.network