Helen Toner: OpenAI Reflections, Adaptation Buffers, and AI in Warfare

In this thought-provoking conversation, Helen Toner, Director of Strategy at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), discusses her perspectives on AI development, regulation, and international competition. Toner shares insights from her time on OpenAI's board, clarifying that reports about a "Q*" breakthrough influencing the board's decision were "totally false." She introduces her concept of "adaptation buffers"—critical windows of time between when AI capabilities are first demonstrated and when they become widely accessible—arguing that society needs this time to build resilience against potential misuse. Toner also explores the challenges of implementing effective AI governance, military applications of AI decision support systems, and the complex dynamics of US-China relations in the emerging AI landscape. Helen Toner's appearance on the TED AI show: https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_ai_show_what_really_went_down_at_openai_and_the_future_of_regulation_w_helen_toner Helen Toner's substack : https://helentoner.substack.com/ Additional recommended reads: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-for-military-decision-making/ https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-regulation-s-champions-can-seize-common-ground-or-be-swept-aside https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/05/26/ai-firms-mustnt-govern-themselves-say-ex-members-of-openais-board SPONSORS: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers next-generation cloud solutions that cut costs and boost performance. With OCI, you can run AI projects and applications faster and more securely for less. New U.S. customers can save 50% on compute, 70% on storage, and 80% on networking by switching to OCI before May 31, 2024. See if you qualify at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive NetSuite: Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing CHAPTERS: (00:00) Teaser (06:04) Introduction and Background (09:32) AI Timeline Perspectives (12:26) OpenAI Board Experience (17:04) OpenAI Culture Discussion (Part 1) (19:20) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | Shopify (20:33) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | Shopify (22:30) OpenAI Culture Discussion (Part 2) (24:03) OpenAI's Contradictory Messaging (26:15) Whistleblowing in AI (31:30) AI Transparency Requirements (Part 1) (36:30) Sponsors: NetSuite (37:58) AI Transparency Requirements (Part 2) (38:38) Adaptation Buffers Concept (44:06) Technical vs. Societal Solutions (52:13) AI Regulation Approaches (57:20) Iterative Deployment Challenges (01:05:50) US-China AI Competition (01:14:54) Military Decision Support Systems (01:20:57) Future AI Military Equilibrium (01:27:39) Outro