Progress Made to Avoid Government Shutdown; Lagarde Talks ECB Rate Cuts

On today's podcast: 1) Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on lawmakers to pass a temporary spending bill this week and avert a partial US government shutdown. 2) The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates in the summer , according to President Christine Lagarde. Interviewed at Bloomberg House in Davos by Francine Lacqua, she was asked if there could be majority support for such a move, given that several policymakers have signaled that timing. 3) Apple Inc. ’s iPhone dethroned Samsung Electronics Co. devices to become the best-selling smartphone series over the course of 2023, the first time South Korea’s largest company has lost the top spot since 2010. Full Transcript: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin in Washington. That's where a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown this weekend has cleared its first hurdle. Bloomberg's Amy Morris has more from the nation's capital. The Senate voted to advance the measure that will fund some federal agencies through March first and others through March eighth. The interim funding is the support of congressional leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, so the prospects for passage in both chambers are good. Does not include several disputed items like eight for Ukraine restrictions along the US border or an eighty billion dollar business tax package. And there are hard right conservatives in the House who oppose funding agencies at current levels, but Speaker Johnson can bypass them by relying on Democrats for support. In Washington. Amy Moore as Bloomberg Radio. All right, Amy, thanks well. Now to the latest on the race for the White House. It's on to New Hampshire for the Republican candidates, and Bloomberg's at Baxter reports are really starting to heat up. Nicki Haley has been very careful not to directly attack Donald Trump, but one day after Iowa as she's calling him a bully and a liar. Trump lamb based Haley as a disaster. Now this all comes with polling that chowse the two very close. In New Hampshire, Real Clear Politics has Trump by about fourteen points, but the American Research Group even called it dead even at forty four percent, with Ron Desatus at only four percent. Tomorrow's schedule debate has been canceled because Haley declined if Trump wasn't going to be there at Baxter Bloomberg Radio, Okay, and thanks. Now let's turn to the Middle East. Israel and Hamas have reached a deal to deliver medicine and other aid to Gaza. That's according to the government in Kadra, which says this is in exchange for medicine reaching the hostages being held by Hamas. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says there is still a risk this war widens to a regional conflict. We do see a pathway to a shift in the military campaign in Gaza, a reduction in tensions and the exchange of fire along Israel's northern border, a reduction in the risk of escalation in other parts of the region, and we'll have to continue to deal with the Hoothi threat. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Israeli President Isaac Herzog plans to bring the families of hostages to the slopes in Switzerland today to step up pressure for their release. Well, Nathan, back here in the US, we are waiting for a key economic group board as doubt grows on whether the FED will start cutting rates as soon as March, and we get the very latest with the Bloomberg's John Tucker, John and Karen. Retail sales probably increased in December. However, the control group sales, which strip out volatile items, that likely slowed to a more subdue pace. Traders are launching on every piece of data as the FAN enters a blackout period next week. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller threw a little cold water around the idea of FED rate cuts as soon as March. With economic activity and labor markets in good shape, and inflation coming down gradually to two percent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. With Wallner's comments, Transury suffered their biggest one day price drop in two months. Yield Seweragetan also drag stocks lower. John Tucker Bloomberg Radio, John thanks, rates are very much in focus overseas that the World Economic Forum. European Central Bank President Christine Legard said the ECB will probably cut rates by the summer. I would say it's likely too, but I have to be reserved because we're also saying that we are data dependent and that there is still a level of uncertainty and some indicators that are not anchored at the level where we would love to see them. ECB President Leaguard made those comments to Francine Lockwha at Bloomberg House in Davos. You can hear their full conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. Well Nathan investors are scaling back their expectations for rake cuts from the Bank of England this year. Inflation in the UK unexpectedly accelerated for the first time in ten months. December's consumer price index was four percent higher than the previous year. On Wall Street, Karen JP Morgan Chase is bucking a trend, the bank plans to hire more workers. We caught up with JP Morgan president Daniel Pinto at Davos. We are employed at the end of the year around three hundred and twenty thousand people. So the number of people that employ has been growing and not ranking. So I think that where we see opportunities and we can have our clients, for sure, we'll focus on that. Daniel Pinto's comments come after JP Morgan closed out the most profitable year in US banking history. Also more banking news this morning, Nathan, the government is unveiling a long awaited rule that could slash the biggest bank's income from overdraft fees by as much as three and a half billion dollars each year. Under the regulation from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, banks would only be able to charge what it costs for them to break even for covering an overdraft or a bu by a specific cap that would effectively eliminate overdraft charges for customers, which right now average about thirty five dollars. Let's turn to some corporate news now. Karen Apple has reached a milestone. The company's dethroned Samsung to become the world's top phone maker in twenty twenty twenty three. IDC estimates the iPhone accounted for a fifth of the global market last year with close to two hundred thirty five million shipments. Apple's dominated recent holiday quarters, but the full year surge is unprecedented, and it suggests Apple is weathering an industry wide slump better than its rivals. And finally, Nathan, it was supposed to be the merger from Heaven, or at least from thirty thousand feet, but now a federal judges block Jet Blues three point eight billion dollar acquisition of Spirit Airlines. The judge says the combination with stifle competition and raise fares for consumers. Jet Blue and Spirit contended that consolidation is the only way smaller airlines can effectively compete with the dominant carriers. Time and not for look at some of the other stories making news around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris Amy, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. President Biden is worried about his supplemental bills stalling out in Congress, so he's inviting some of the key players to the White House today. Bloomberg's Nancy lyons with the latest. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre provided a list of those invited to the meeting, and then Biden will host congressional leaders from the Senate and the House, along with key committee leaders and ranking members. She says there's a lot to talk about, but President Biden has one topic he's especially concerned with. This is going to be about discussing critical importance of the President's Facial Security supplemental request. That's the proposal to further fund Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Republicans are refusing to move on that until there's a consensus on a new border policy in Washington. Nancy lyons Bloomberg Radio. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln says soil should be treated as a precious resource, telling the World Economic Forum in Davos that lack of food is causing unprecedented global migration flows at Russia's war in Ukraine and attacks by who they rebels and the Red Sea have made things worse. A parent who can't put food on the table for their children picks up the family and moves because it's the most basic thing, the most important thing that they can do. Lincoln says, the problem is likely to get worse as climate change threatens to reduce crop yields. Now Climate Envoy John Kerry, also at the World Economic Forum, says he's stepping down from the role within the Biden administration so he can take on a more vocal position for the Biden campaign. He assured other world climate leaders that yes, he'll still be around. I'm going to stay at this and there are so many different ways to continue to be able to be engaged in this. So unfortunately you're stock. You'll see me at the copy you see. Rivia Carrie says regardless of who wins the election, the global climate agenda will remain solid, and the World Health Organization says the number of adult tobacco users is on the decline. The organization says the biggest decrease in tobacco use is seen happening in lower to middle income countries. We have nineteen million less smokers than we had two years ago. That is the first time that we see such a decline. Doctor Rudiger Kresh is urging countries to continue putting control policies in place for tobacco. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Amy Morris and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, Amy, thank you. We do bring you news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now you can get the latest news on demand, and that means whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines of the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com plus apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour John Charny Atlanta Falcons, one of seven NFL teams looking for a head coach at indications that the Falcons are looking for a big name to be their new coach. The day after they interviewed Bill Belichick, they interviewed Jim Harbaugh, who previously had already interviewed with the Los Angeles Chargers. So Harbaugh clearly hasn't interest in returning to the NFL and leaving Michigan, where he just won a national championship. Reportedly, Harbaugh if he stays with Michigan wants it written into his contract that he can't be fired due to NCAA violations. Mike Tomlin has reportedly told his team in Pittsburgh that he'll remain as coach of the Steelers. It's the job he's had for seventeen years. The Steelers had only had three different head coaches in the last fifty four years. Jason Kelsey told his teammates in Philadelphia just after that blowout loss at Tampa Bay at the end of their season that he's retiring at age thirty six, thirteen years all with the Eagles. He won a Super Bowl, He went to the Pro Bowls seven times. Taulliat tadabaloo. That's to his younger brother, who's been playing quarterback for Maryland. Denied a waiver for another year of eligibility, so he journing the Pro Battle. The NBA's top two big man and Joe lmb And outplayed the Kola Yokiz. He scored forty one points in the second straight game. Philadelphia beat Denver one twenty six one twenty one big comeback and Phoenix, led by Kevin Durant, they were down twenty two to the fourth court of the Sun's rallied top Sacramento by two. Hockey of the Capitals are two nothing to win over Anaheim, kyl and Shops second right, Purdue an easy win at Indiana. John Skashanwer Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on siriusxam, the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. European Central Bank President Christine Legard says aggressive bets on interest straight cuts from the financial markets are not helping policymakers with their task to bring down inflation, but she says it is likely the ECB will cut rates in the summer. Madame Lecguard spoke with our editor at large France seen Lockwow from the World Economic Forums Bloomberg House in Davos, Switzerland. Let's listen in to part of that conversation. Now, when you look at inflation, when you look at monetary policy, what's changed your mind on how quickly we get a cut from the ECB? You know, when I look at a year ago in doubles and when I compare that with where we are today, I see a slope downward, but certainly not a slope which is at target where we want it. So that's what we have achieved. I think in a little over a year, bring inflation back from where it was in October twenty two at ten point two percent down to a two point nine percent month and month December, and certainly with the prospect of keeping it down and further down because our target is two percent and we are you know, I would have said a year ago that we are determined we want to get it to SI I would say to you now that we are confident that we will get it to that target two percent medium turn. Are market's too optimistic on the industry. I'm not going to comment on markets. Markets do their job, they have their numbers, they have their objectives. What we do at the CB, and what I think most central banks would do, is work as hard as we can collecting data using artificial intelligence by the way for that, analyzing data, confronting viewpoints, checking models against empirical data, doing scenario analysis, and being as as comprehensive as we can to anticipate what's coming. And it's hard because what many people don't understand is that monetary policy works with a lag. So whatever we do now is going to have an impact in a few months and sometimes a year or two, and we have to take that in account to decide what we do, how long we hold, and what decision we make in due course. When you say that you gather data also with AI, it does AI also analyze because again you're looking at the current data. You're trying to forecast what your monetary policy is doing in the future. So is it algorithms? Like, how does that work? We do data collection a lot, we don't We don't determine monetary policy using algorithm and artificial intelligence. And I think that time we can check with the AI experts, of course, but I don't think that that time has come yet. When you look at again the forecast, and I understand you're not focused on the market, but if the markets prices that are not focused, we look at them, we look at what they say. We are attentive, but everyone has their job and we cannot, you know, sort of second guess what they will think that we are thinking that they are second guessing. I mean, it's it's a catch twenty two job, right, But if the market is too optimistic about cuts, does it actually hurt and not help the fight against inflation by doing that? I was going to ask you that, So it makes sure your job harder if if they're actually mispricing what you're trying to tell them, it is not helping a fight against inflation. If if the anticipation is such that you know, they are way too high compared with what's likely to happen. Is it too early to cry victory against inflation? How do you see it behaving? We are on the on the right path, We are directionally towards the two percent. But unless and until we are confident that it is sustainably at two percent medium term and we have the data to you know, support it, I'm not going to shout victory. No, not yet. How much is the inflation reduction thanks to your monetary power and how much of it is like, No, I wouldn't call it luck. I think two factors have played a critical role, and it's the decline in energy prices that we have observed. You know, energy prices pushed prices up massively, and energy prices decline of course has a similar impact. So that's number one. Number two the bottlenecks that we have observed as a result of COVID in particular, and which lasted quite a lot of quite a long time, has gradually faded out, and that also had an impact, you know, more supply, more availability of goods. Second factor. The third factor is monetary policy, and it's undoubtedly been effective, if only to anchor inflation expectations, which we know is really important. So it has had an impact on inflation itself, but it has definitely had an impact on inflation expectations, which by all accounts and all surveys and all measurements have come down and are really now broadly onto that two percent medium term target that we have. I know it's obsessive two percent medium term targets, but yeah, that's what it is. Yeah, but at least it's auld guide the markets, right, I mean, it's good to be upsetsed. Well, if they don't know that that's what we are aiming for, then they need to have the head examined, that's for sure. And then again talk to me a little bit about wage bargaining. So again is that going to be on the upside and could that change you know, the timing of a possible work. Well, I'm glad you mentioned wages in general, wage bargaining in particular, and I'll go to that, but I want to tell you that there are three things that I'm watching carefully. Wage bargainings, profit margins, energy prices, and hopefully not but the coming back of supply bottom Miex. Those are four key components which could have a serious impact on the work that we're doing against inflation. But back to your wage question. Wages have gone up, but relatively slowly, so in prices have gone up earlier and faster than wages, so we are now facing a moment of not only some degree of alignment, but catch up as well. So employees have lost purchasing power in the course of twenty one twenty two, and there is now a catch up effect in the bargaining discussions that are taking place. We will know a lot more, probably in April May, because the numbers the bargaining agreements are being negotiated in the first quarter of every year, and the results come in after the agreements have been closed, so that gives us indication that we can corroborate and verify in the late spring, I would say of of twenty four, that will be a strong indication our wages slowly catching up, and that catch up process will take place over the course of two or three years possibly, or is there a very strong catch up coupled with an alignment with inflation, which would give me concern because while we're not seeing today's second round effect, that could be the result of this sort of twofold process. Are you confident there will be a cut this year in interest rates? Confident? I'm confident that short off another major shock, we have reach reached a peak. Okay, Now we have to stay restrictive for as long as necessary to make sure that we get to that state where we're all saying, okay, confident that it is at two percent medium term. I know some people argue that maybe we are overshooting, maybe we're taking risks. I think the risk would be worse if we went too fast and had to come back to more tightening, because we would have wasted all the efforts that everybody has put in the last fifteen months. The US election, Yeah, let me have some coffee. How arid are you about the US election? It's for the American people to decide what they want with their politics, with their government. With their future. But obviously we are all concerned about it because the United States is the largest economy, the largest defense country in the world, and has been a beacon of democracy with all its upside and downside. But this is what they should be considering, and of course we cannot interfere with their choice. It's their choice and that's the beauty of democracy. But we have to be extremely attentive and anticipate, just as we do with inflation. You know, we do scenarios. What if, what if? Then what do we do? Because that's the real question. And you know where I sit now in Frankfurt, head of the ECB, I think that we have to be strong as Europeans and not assume that we can rely on whoever our friends are around the world, because these things change over the course of time, as we have seen. So what if Donald Trump gets into the White House, what are some of the policies that europe could be put in place to not be cut also between China and the US with Donald Trump and the White House. Well, for one, it has to be strong of its own and if I look at my own shop, because it matters to monetary policy transmission, I think that and you will hear that from others. We have to accelerate capital market union. We need financing in Europe. There is a lot of saving in Europe, and we have to make sure that those savings actually stay here to finance what needs to be financed, which is predominantly the climate transition, which is digitalization, which is enough industrialization conducted with a targeted approach so that we can on the key in the key areas be self sufficient. Are there policies that you would put in place now for Europe to I guess counter the US exceptionalism, which you know could be questioned going forward. I think I would accelerate many of the initiatives that have been taken, and I would encourage European leaders to put aside a little bit they respective idiosyncraty idiosyncratic differences to be more together because you know, it's a question of off size and scale, and Europe is a very large market, has a very sizable population, has capacity to innovate, has financing. It has to you know, be a little bit more cohesive together and forward looking. This is Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERIUSXM, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak and be See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.