About this episode
On today's podcast: 1) President Joe Biden’s unprecedented actions to erase student-loan debt have fallen flat with the young voters in swing states he needs to win reelection, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll . 2) After clashing in recent years, Wall Street traders and the Federal Reserve are – for once – broadly in sync: The great monetary pivot is near as central bankers engineer a once-unthinkable soft landing in the world’s largest economy. 3) House Republicans threatened the US Food and Drug Administration with a subpoena as they intensify scrutiny of the agency’s efforts to deal with quality problems with drugs made in India and China. Full transcript: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We want to bring you fresh data now. In the twenty twenty four presidential race, a new Bloomberg News Morning Consul poll shows former President Donald Trump now ahead of President Biden in all seven of the swing states that are likely to decide next year's election. Trump leads forty seven to forty two percent across those states. That is outside this poll's margin of error of one percent. The survey finds President Biden failing to gain traction among suburban women in Michigan, young voters, and union households. He trails Trump in Michigan forty six to forty two percent. As concerns over inflation ride high. Council of Economic Advisor's chair Jared Bernstein tells Bloomberg that sentiment should improve as we get closer to election if we continue to maintain our progress lower prices, not just in the things I mentioned where they're actually coming down eggs, milk, toys, TVs, but also in areas of healthcare. That's the path that we need to stay on. We're not there yet, We're moving in the right direction. But how do we know that. Well, one thing we really need to see is for some of these sentiment indices to reflect that progress, and Jared Bernstein with the Council of Economic Advisors admits those sentiment indices have not gotten better yet. Well, Nathan, another demographic that's expressing concern is Generation Z. The Bloomberg Morning Console poll also finds many young voters in swing states don't think Biden is doing enough on student loan payments. However, Around University professor Wendy Schiller thinks former President Trump's support could wane as he re enters the spotlight. As he comes back into the limelight and independence are reminded of why they have not voted for Trump or Trump's surrogates in the last three elections. That's where I think the polling becomes more favorable, if you can put it that way, for Biden, in the sense that he is a chance to win those voters back into the Democratic camp at least at the present and Brown Universities. Wendy Schiller also says Democrats will need to improve their messaging to get Biden re elected in twenty twenty four. Well, another complication for the president, Karen the House has voted along party lines to formally authorize the impeachment inquiry into President Biden. This sets up a high profile clash with the White House over the investigation that's focused on Biden family finances and business dealings. House Oversight Chair James Comer spoke after the vote. We have a simple question that I think of no blooming majority of Americans have. What did the Bidens do to receive the tens of millions of dollars from our enemies around the world. Despite those accusations from Republican James Comer, Democrat Jamie Raskin says, the attacks on the president are baseless. They understand there's no real evidence to support any presidential offense here. They haven't even named what they think the crime is. House Democrat Jamie Raskin says the impeachment inquiry is purely about next year's election. Well, we turn to the markets now, Nathan and the monetary pivot that traders have been waiting for. After keeping interest on hold, the FED gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over, projecting rate cuts in twenty twenty four, Fed heire J Powell's News Conference United, one of the biggest post meeting rallies in recent memory. The down closed at a record and the S and P gained one point four percent, but Powell did not entirely rule out tightening. Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That's very good news, but inflation is still too high ongoing progress and bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. Chairman Powell reiterated that the FED remains data dependent, but former Atlanta FED President Ans Lockhart says the Fed's tentatively DUBBSH stance, as he puts it, is appropriate at this time. It's clear that they're going into twenty twenty four with the idea that they will be cutting rate, and the summary of economic projections showed to range among fifteen of them from two cuts to four cuts, so it's not a really tight census yet. And former Atlanta FED President Dennis Lockhart says markets are reacting positively to Powell's stands, and the FED gets more data this morning with retail sales do at at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. Well Karen traders may be helping for smoother sailing on the NASDAG today. A system error forced some stock orders on the exchange to be canceled yesterday. Sources tell us Nasdaq's investigating an order entry issue that caused inaccuracies and delays. Although it did not resolve the issue before the end of trading yesterday, the Nasdaq says it will be ready today. Nathan, overseas, we get two major rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Bloomberg's Ewan Pots joins us from London with a preview. Good morning, Ewan, Good morning Karen, Nathan. They're calling it super Thursday with rate decisions from key central banks right across Europe. We've already had a surprise rate hike from Norway. Up next announcements from the ECB and the BOE. The risk of recession in the euro Area will be front of mind for Presidents Christine Legarde. We're here from the ECB at eight fifteen am Eastern time. But first up the Bank of England. Way's sticky inflation with a very sluggish economy. That UK right decision comes in two hours time in London. I'm Une Pots, Bloomberg Radio okay you and thank you. Elsewhere in Europe, UBS is stepping up efforts to recoup hundreds of millions in cash bonuses that Credit Sweeze paid to retain deal makers before it's collapse. Sources say UBS has contacted hundreds of bankers and offered some multi year payment plans as it tries to claw back a chunk of the one point two billion Swiss francs and restricted cash bonuses. One source says UBS is seeking to recover less than six hundred and fifty one million Swiss francs. Meanwhile, in Russia, Nathan President Vladimir Putin is speaking at his annual end of year news conference. He says inflation in Russia's running between seven and a half to eight percent and that Russian companies are paying back their foreign loans. Putin added his war aims in Ukraine remained the same and he does not expect to mobilize a second wave of troops right now. And it is time now for a look at some of the other stories making news around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg, John Tunker, johncinb Morning, Good Morning. Care in the House and Senate have agreed to a massive defense bill. The story in this report from Washington and Bloomberg's Amy Morris. The House passed an eight hundred and eighty six billion dollar defense bill after bipartisan negotiations between the House and Senate. Hard right Republicans had tried to attach restrictions on abortions, transgender care, and diversity initiatives, but those didn't make it into the final bill. Republicans did score some victories, like requiring all promotions to be merit and performance based, outlawing the flying of the LGBTQ flag on military basis, and the teaching of critical race theory and drag show performances will also be banned on bass. Military personnel will also get a five point two percent pay increase in the new bill. Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. Negotiators continue to make progress on a border deal. The key negotiators have been meeting with the Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorcis. Senator Chris Murphy if Connecticut been leading negotiations for the Democrats. As a real complicated set of law, but there's still no reason that we can't finish this by the time we wrap up for the year. Lawmakers are scheduled a head out of town as soon as tomorrow. The US working with allies to create a multinational effort to protect ships passing through the Red Sea. It's an effort to stem a surgeon attacks by hootie fighters that has provoked unease about commercial trade passing through one of the world's most vital waterways. A federal judge granted Donald Trump's request to pause the twenty twenty election obstruction case scheduled for trial at March well he presses a claim for sweeping immunity against criminal charges. US District Judge Tanya Chunkin at Washington pause the hearings and upcoming deadlines in the case while Trump appeals her earlier ruling denying him immunately from prosecution over events that took place while he was president. Industry regulators say California's risk of power shortfalls and blackouts has fallen as more renewable energy and batteries are added to its electric grid, but at the same time, they and such threats in New York have risen thanks to higher electricity demand and new restrictions on gas fire power plants. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it With Bloomberg News Now, I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, John, thanks what we do bring you news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. Just as John said, but now you can get the latest news on demand, and that means you can get it whenever you want it. Just subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. It is time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour, John Karen and Milwaukee on a night for the buckstar Jannis onto the Compo. He poured in sixty four points. That's as previous career high of fifty five. It's a Bucks team rerecord. They beat Indiana one forty to one twenty six. Jana's twenty of twenty eight from the field and twenty four of thirty two from the free throw line. He's the first player in NBA history to have twenty or more from both and shoot seventy percent or better in both. There was an incident after the game. Giannis went into the Pacers locker room to try to get the game ball, and there was apparently some kind of a melee that broke out. Wizards lost at home by twenty New Orleans one, with Brandon Ingram scoring forty, and the Wizards are now three and twenty. Lakers won only by three in San Antonio, when the Spurs have now lost eighteen games in a row. The NBA has suspended Raymond Green indefinitely, citing his repeated history of incident. Ruins lost in overtime at New Jersey two to one. It's the Chargers and Raiders tonight, kicking off Week fifteen, both teams with only five wins on the season a lot of injuries. Chargers without their quarterback Justin Herbert for the rest of the season in their top whiteout, Keenan Allen won't play tonight due to a foot injury. The Raiders have decided to stick with rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell. Whiteout. Devonte Adams was questionable with an illness. The NFL has gave me Super Bowl sixty to Los Angeles. That's where the first Super Bowl was played, and the NFL says there'll be a regular season game played next year in South Paolo Brazil. John Stashewer Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Sirius Exam, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a twenty twenty four re election campaign for President Biden, he has been struggling to show voters that the policies that he's put forward, whether it's by partisan infrastructure, it's the Inflation Reduction Act and student debt relief, are working for the voters that he needs to win reelection. Those struggles are reflected in the latest Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll of swing states, just out this morning, and here with us to discuss it as Bloomberg News Politics reporter Gregory Cordy. Gregory, it's great to have you with us this morning. We just saw these numbers cross the Bloomberg terminal moments ago. I know this is an update right of the swing state pole that we conducted just a couple months ago. So what did we find. Yeah, actually, this is the third iteration of this pole. We've been doing it monthly and we're going to continue to do it monthly through the election next November. And what we're seeing is a slow but unmistakable movement in former President Donald Trump's direction in each of these seven swing states, or I should say these swing states collectively. But now for the first time in this poll every one of these seven swing states, Trump is now leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Michigan was the one that was tied the first two times we did this poll. Now President Trump is leading by four and so this is a pretty good poll for him, and it shows how President Biden continues to struggle, as you said, to convince voters that his economic policies are working. Yeah. To see the turnaround in President Biden's disfavor in Michigan is particularly notable when you think about how he's put himself out there as the most pro union president ever. He was the first president to walk a picket line in Michigan, and it doesn't seem at least from this polling that that's worked out for him thus far. Yeah, we took a particular interest in Michigan this month in part because it had been so close and now it seems to be leaning Trump. And you're absolutely right. It's a state that Biden absolutely needs to win. It's one of those blue wall industrial states that we talk about that are so important for Democrats, and it shows that Biden's really not improving among those union voters. Now. The unions themselves are pretty happy with Biden. Biden claims to mean it's pro union president in history. He walked the picket line with workers back when the United Auto Workers were on strike earlier this year, and that political support from the White House helped the UAW get a pretty good contract. But rank and file auto workers aren't necessarily listening to their union leadership on this, and we've seen union workers more willing to vote for Donald Trump, especially on these issues of trade and competition with China and immigration and other issues other than collective bargaining. President Trump has made inroads on It is fascinating to see how the former president continues to make inroads on these economic issues when we go by the data every day here on Bloomberg, and we're seeing the signs of improvement in the US economy pretty steadily. What does that say about this disconnect that we're seeing between the way the economy is going and how it's working out for this current president in his polling numbers. Yeah, you've absolutely put your finger on one of the central questions and frankly, one of the big riddles of this election year, as you say, the economic indicators are doing well, and yet Biden isn't getting credit for that. We see when we ask people how is the national economy doing, overwhelming numbers say that it's doing poorly in the seventy percents. But then when we ask people how their local economy is doing, how their state economy is doing, people are saying it's doing much better. And we're really trying to understand that disconnect between vote voter perceptions because the real that local economy is what people more often experience, and what they're saying is, yeah, I've got a job unemployment as low prices are coming down, wages are going up, and yet they look at the national economy and they still think that it's heading in the wrong direction. What that reflects is that they are continuing to associate present Biden with inflation being still too high compared to where we were before the pandemic, and people not exactly happy with where we are and continuing to be a little uncertain about which direction we're heading. I think about thirty seconds left here, Greg gree But are there any positive signs for President Biden in this polling? Well, inflation expectations continue to come down. We see that in a number of different poles, and we see it in this poll. We see people saying that the concerns about inflation are ebbing a little bit. And then we ask people, would you say that the prices that you paid for everyday goods like groceries and gas and so forth, are they going up or they going down? And fewer people say that they're going up. The people are seeing them starting to come down. It's probably not as much as the president would like to see, but some of these indicators are slowly heading in the right direction. It's Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning on Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, serriusxmb iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.