Middle East Tensions Escalate; Wall Street 2024 Predictions

On today's podcast: 1) Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea after the US Navy destroyed three Houthi boats, a move that risks ratcheting up tensions and complicates Washington’s goal of securing a waterway that’s vital to global trade. 2) If the consensus on Wall Street is often wrong — and evidence from 2023 does little to dispel that notion — then in the year ahead investors are facing either the mother of all rallies or a selloff for the ages. 3) ASML Holding canceled shipments of some of its machines to China at the request of US President Joe Biden’s administration , weeks before export bans on the high-end chipmaking equipment came into effect, people familiar with the matter said. Full Transcript: Good morning. I maybe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin with oil rising to start the new year, Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day. Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University and says the two are clearly interlinked. Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoothy's and other movements like Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the houthy slogan indeed includes the words death to Israel and a curse on the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more militant and extreme war wing. Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nie makes crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen cents a bit. Well, Amy, oil isn't the only thing on the move this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following through on last year's massive rally, and we get more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton. It is up another four percent at the moment, at the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand dollars for the first time in two years. This is due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF, so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity. People looking for more technical levels for that one to keep going higher. And Bloomberg Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline for the Securities and Exchange Commission to give its blessing for a spot bitcoin ETF dra us closer checking bitcoin right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars over in Europe's stocks are also higher to kick off the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol. Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today. Shares and the shipping giant Marisk have risen after it stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets which are out performing, boost it by a rise in bank shares. In London, Stephen Carrolt Bloomberg Radio, All right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US, Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick off the new trading year, and we get a look ahead from Bloomberg Shirlie Pellett. The S and P five hundred index sits within striking distance of its first in two years. But a key challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments. The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that, corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent. And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're not super expensive either in the markets right now. Among this week's earnings reports, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots Alliance in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio. Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for how markets would perform, So will they fare better? In twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg. Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes of the past eighteen months to two years finally starting to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot roundabout mid year. Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election. Well. In corporate news, Amy Chinas BYD may have just overtaken Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still more than five hundred twenty six in fully electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing when BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's going to put this company into the consciousness of people around the world in a way that that company has not had ever before. The number two thing it does is it really underscores how dominant a position China not only as a market, but as a country with lots of companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has in that industry now and Bloombergs John Lusa's Tesla is estimated to have delivered over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the fourth quarter alone. Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny Marsh has more from Hong Kong. This is Chi Jinping's new yas Eve's speech, and he normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's major in the year. And I think this speech really stood out for how candid he was being about these problems. It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggle that twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead in twenty twenty four for the economy. And he didn't really have any sort of quick fixes for that. Bloomberg Jenny Mark says China is entering a pivotal period as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to target a growth goal of around five percent again in twenty twenty four. Meanwhile, Amy, the Biden administration has won another battle and its effort to try and slow Shina from building its own semiconductor industry. We get more with the Bloomberg's Ed Baxter, ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of its machines to China at the Biden request. This week's before the export bands on the high end chip making came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The US and allies have been trying to block access to the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank you care in time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Amy The death toll has now climbed to forty eight. After a magnitude seven point six earthquake struck Japan. The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast. This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting to Yama when the quake hit. First. The trim had just done it very slowly, and everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh, this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on New Year's Day, and then then it is just a violent shape. The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's Hanada Airport. Authorities say a large burst of fire erupted from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated. Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime Minister Benjamin Etnaho's contentious judicious overhaul before the October seventh to Maas attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York, to investigate a car crash that killed two people and injured five others outside of Performing Arts theater in the early hours of New Year's Day. The crash happened in front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene due to a fire which had erupted as a result of the crash, and police also say several gas cans were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor Malik Evans I want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals that lost their lives, and I asked the community to pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives, but also those that are injured. Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just a car accident or something far worse. New York City's effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison, New Jersey mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a major risk to health and security. The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is not to pawt it off to another mayor. Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Aamy all right, Thank you, Michael, And we do bring the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, and now you can get the news on demand whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour. Thanks Amy Kevilo. Terrific gains of the college football playoff semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie to Alabama. The lad touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first out of the shotgun. Paura McGain This tiny poussi he's got the first out of more porm inside the five porm space is way across the goal line. Touch down Michigan seven. Take your touchdown run ESPN the call Michigan and stop BAMACB Jalen Milroe on a fourth down and one twenty seven to twenty JJ McCarthy through three TD passes, and then came the Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that at thirteen point lead been WITHY through the fourth quarter. Texas rallied had four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds, but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB Michael Pennix Junior threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in fourteen and oh I Fiesta Ball, all Oregon forty five to six over a limitary vote next to five TD passes Sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing over Iowa. LSU won the RELYA Quest in Tampa thirty five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nicks happy to start the new year at the Garden after an ohen three road trip, they beat Minnesota, won twelve one to OH six. Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. O g Onnobi made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before found out. He scored seventeen in Toronto. RJ. Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland. Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to see the Kraken shoutout Vegas three to nothing. John Stashwin Bricksport from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break. Good morning. I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do most investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the same middle of the road scenario for the coming year, an economic slow down, a central bank pivot, and a late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of Akron and Dowment chairman and former publisher of the Gartman Letter to sort of set us straight on what we can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S and P five hundred rose nine straight weeks. Are these trends bound to continue? I have my doubts to the latter trend will continue. I think stocks are extremely overbought. The market has risen on an anticipation of three, four, five six cuts in the overnight Fed Funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank. I have my doubts as to whether that will occur. I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether they're going to cut five or six times, I think is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the fact that the Federal will delay any change in the overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's too much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting the overnight funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens, But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however, are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it seems to me this looks very similar to what happened in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach the higher the market on the opening day of twenty twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But too much anticipation of too much easier possible abilities on the part of the Fed that I don't think are going to happen. Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday. What are you watching for in that and how that might impact it? Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates because of the fact that we tend to see such huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next. But right now the market is anticipating an increase of about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to one hundred eighty five thousand times. Shall tell Barkley is predicting a softest landing. Vanguard JP Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know that's what everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well. What's the difference now. I was one of the people that expected to see a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest, the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether whether it happens or not is up for debate. I have my doubts. Seriously, though we are over extended to the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because of the FED tightening monetary policy over the course of the past several years, and there's always law long and reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And I think we be recessionary before the end of the year, but I don't think it'll be a substantive one. I think it'll be a very quiet one. Time. However, again, as I've said too many times already this morning time show, tell Yeah, I was about to ask you what kind of recession you were looking for. You're expecting a softest landing. Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one, a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before. But I think it'll be a very a very quiet and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four, not anything like we saw in eighty one, eighty two, not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent before it's done. What do you see with oil and gold in this new year? Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I think gold wants to go from the lower left to the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while, and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly, it's heading about twenty one thousand before before too long, I think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand before the year is out. I have been very bearish on crude oil for a while because the term structure has been overly overtly barished, with the front month leading on the downside and failing to gain upon the back moths when the market when the market rallies. But now all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching what's happening in the Gulf of so As. I think that's only gonna get worse, not better. And for the first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil. I'm starting to turn bullish of a Timeshall tell, but this is the first time in months that I've actually been have not been bearish on the crude oil market because of the changing nature of the term structure. You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus listen coast to coat on the Bloomberg Business app, Sirius Xmbiheartradio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Amy Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. 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