About this episode
Mackenzie Rivers and Dan Rivera talk NFL Survivor for Week 12. Mackenzie Rivers and Dan Rivera break down NFL Week 12 Survivor strategy, MVP odds, team power ratings, and future-week planning. Mack opens by noting major movement in MVP markets, especially Matthew Stafford rising against Drake May, and argues Stafford should be the favorite due to team strength, narrative, and veteran status. Dan emphasizes that betting awards requires thinking like the media, and the Patriots’ soft schedule hurts May’s candidacy. They discuss power-rating models showing the Rams as the top team, the Chiefs second, and surprisingly the Texans third due to strong underlying metrics despite a .500 record. Shifting to Survivor, they highlight Seattle as the top Week 12 option versus the Titans: Tennessee grades as bottom-tier across analytic systems, has one of the league’s worst offenses, and relies on Cam Ward, whose turnover tendencies create multiple paths for a Seahawks win. They compare alternative Seattle usage weeks but conclude Week 12 is optimal even assigning pessimistic turnover scenarios. They cover other big favorites: the Lions (whose home splits and Jekyll-and-Hyde Jared Goff profile point to a strong bounce-back vs the Giants), the Ravens (concerns around Lamar’s health, short-week turnaround, and potential Joe Burrow return in Week 13), the Packers (Jordan Love inconsistency, injuries to Josh Jacobs/Tucker Kraft, and JJ McCarthy volatility), the Rams vs Bucs (Rams may “screw around,” Bucs too injured and erratic), and the 49ers (better held for Week 15 vs Tennessee after a bye). They repeatedly stress that late-season future value is more important than raw win probability. They examine Week 13 Thanksgiving lines: Lions over Packers, Chiefs over Cowboys, Ravens over Bengals, and Eagles over Bengals (depending on Burrow’s readiness). They warn that using the Ravens in Week 13 is riskier than the market implies, given divisional familiarity and Baltimore’s offensive stagnation. They touch briefly on off-the-wall options like the Bears, Saints, Jaguars, and Patriots but generally dismiss them due to fluky profiles or better future deployment. Dan notes the Saints may become viable in Weeks 16–17 when they face the Jets or Titans. Ultimately both hosts circle back to Seattle as the cleanest Week 12 Survivor pick, citing matchup, quarterback disparity, and Tennessee’s inability to generate offense without extreme turnover luck. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices