About this episode
Munaf Manji, Dave Essler and Lonte Smith talk NFL contest picks and much more. NFL Week 3 Contest Breakdown and Picks Munaf Manji (0:08 – 0:59) Munaf opened by setting the stage for the Week 3 contest discussion, reviewing Circa Millions, Circa Survivor, and the Westgate Super Contest. He emphasized injuries at quarterback across the league and noted that their picks could be used to guide or fade depending on listener preference. Dave Essler (1:00 – 1:12) Dave candidly admitted, “We did some good things last week, we did some bad things. Came out slightly ahead.” His honesty framed the cautious optimism for Week 3. Lonte Smith (1:43 – 3:00) Lonte joked about Denver’s penalty issues but pivoted into praise for Daniel Jones, noting, “They’re not trying to make him do things he’s not capable of.” He highlighted quick decision-making, mobility, and effective coaching as reasons for Jones’ improvement. Munaf Manji (3:00 – 7:13) Munaf recapped Week 2 contests. In Circa Millions, 24 entries sat at 9-1, while nine entries were 0-10 chasing the booby prize. The most popular Week 2 picks went 2-3, including losses by the Cowboys (-5.5) and Jets (+6.5). In Circa Survivor, 68 of 69 $150,000 entries survived, with over 16,900 entries still alive overall. He stressed the importance of contest line timing and teased upcoming Survivor picks. Dave Essler (7:14 – 9:30) Dave announced his pick: the Cleveland Browns. He reasoned, “I’ll never lay more than a touchdown in the NFL,” citing Cleveland’s defensive stats—holding Baltimore to 45 rushing yards and 25% third-down conversions. He also bet the under at 42.5, expecting a defensive struggle against Green Bay. Munaf Manji (9:31 – 11:16) Munaf confirmed contest lines at +7.5, echoing support for the under and highlighting yards-per-play stats, where Green Bay and Cleveland rank first and second defensively. He suggested it could be an “ugly week” with possible upsets. Lonte Smith (11:16 – 12:27) Lonte backed the Browns as well, noting Baltimore’s defensive touchdown inflated the final score. He stressed, “Dog and under with a total like this is typically one of the better bets.” He believed Cleveland could outright win if they maintained a ground game. Lonte Smith (13:27 – 15:02) His personal pick was the New York Giants +6.5 versus Kansas City. He doubted the Chiefs’ offense without Rashee Rice and believed the Giants could manage clock control through the run game. Munaf Manji (15:09 – 17:48) Munaf disagreed, siding with Kansas City, trusting their defense under Steve Spagnuolo and forecasting a strong Patrick Mahomes performance. He warned it could be a “flat spot” for the Giants after a tough division loss. Dave Essler (17:48 – 19:39) Dave leaned with Munaf, doubting Giants’ discipline and coaching, pointing out, “Wilson throws for almost 500 yards and loses… I don’t trust Dable.” He leaned Chiefs but hesitated at the spread. Survivor Picks (31:12 – 38:57) Lonte chose Tampa Bay against a Jets team on the road with a backup QB, calling Todd Bowles’ defense a bad matchup. Dave proposed the Bears over Dallas, criticizing Jerry Jones’ leadership, but also liked Tampa. Munaf supported Tampa and Seattle, emphasizing Baker Mayfield’s leadership and Seattle’s defensive edge against Spencer Rattler. Lonte also floated Baltimore over Detroit, citing Lamar Jackson’s history of dominance at home. Closing Thoughts (39:23 – 42:49) The group briefly discussed Minnesota, with Dave and Lonte agreeing Carson Wentz could be an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy, especially with Justin Jefferson needing targets. They closed with lighthearted banter about Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase’s relationship and confirmed they’d return for Week 4 with more contest and survivor insights Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices