About this episode
Mackenzie Rivers and Dan Rivera talk NFL Week 14 Survivor contest. Mackenzie Rivers and Dan Rivera deliver an exhaustive Week 14 Survivor breakdown, opening with a review of advanced Pregame analytics—fourth-quarter win share, Kevin Cole’s adjusted score, PFF noise-canceled score, non-turnover EPA, recalculated score, and strength-of-schedule adjustments—to argue which teams truly rank at the top despite misleading records. Surprisingly, metrics elevate the Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Colts, while the Eagles grade only around 11–13 despite being power-rated like contenders. Turning to Week 13A, they commit to using the Eagles, reasoning that Philadelphia’s ball-security advantage offsets the Bears’ turnover-driven overperformance, and that a post-loss, must-respond spot favors the Eagles regaining control despite Chicago’s recent improbable wins. The hosts acknowledge Caleb Williams’ volatility but view Chicago’s defensive metrics—bottom-three by several analytics—as too weak to justify fading Philly. For Week 13B, they evaluate alternatives like the 49ers, Seahawks, and Jaguars, ultimately concluding the Chargers are the optimal but uneasy play. They cite concerns about L.A.’s offensive line, the Raiders’ potential “dead-cat bounce” with coaching changes, and historical trends showing favorites off a bye after a blowout loss underperforming. Still, the Chargers’ situational advantages and lack of future scheduling value make them the necessary pick over Jacksonville, who has better outs later. The hosts then map the long-term path: Week 14 Buccaneers (if Baker Mayfield is healthy), Week 15 49ers off their bye vs. Tennessee, Week 16 likely Cardinals or Saints depending on injuries, Week 17 Cowboys at Washington (a historically strong road spot), and Week 18 tentatively Jaguars vs. Titans, understanding that chaotic motivation variables will shape the final decision. They emphasize the realism of sweating both Week 13 games, the uniqueness of surviving deep into a public Survivor contest, and their commitment to continuing the journey weekly, even as analytics, injury uncertainty, weather, and variance keep tightening margins the deeper they advance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices