Episodes

1d ago

Major US equity indices were mixed this week. Major AI infrastructure names saw additional scrutiny after reports of stalled negotiations for a $10B Michigan datacenter with Blue Owl Capital, Oracle's largest datacenter partner (though Oracle says the project remains on track). However, other AI headlines from the week were more upbeat, including a very well-received earnings report from Micron.

2d ago

US equities higher in Thursday trading, just off their best levels. Disinflation traction and better tech/AI sentiment were the big pieces to today's risk-on, broad-based rally. Additionally, the day saw the coolest core CPI print in nearly five years adding support to dovish Fed narrative.

3d ago

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, finishing near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 47bps, 116bps, and 181bps respectively. AI weakness was the big story today following Financial Times report that Blue Owl backed out of an Oracle and OpenAI data center project in Michigan with no reprieve from Oracle comments project remains on track. Fedespeak from Waller remarks at Yale had a dovish cast. Today’s $13B auction of 20s was well received. Micron earnings after the close and President Trump addressing nation tonight.

4d ago

Stocks were mostly lower with Energy and healthcare the big specific decliners. Rotational dynamics were mostly on pause with cyclicals/small caps mostly lower and AI-linked/semis/Big Tech trading mixed. Treasuries were a bit firmer after today's high profile economic data.

5d ago

US equities were lower in Monday trading as stocks ended a bit off worst levels. Stocks were modestly lower in anticipation of key catalysts later this week. In macro news, the December Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a surprise negative print.

Dec 12

US equities were mixed this week. The Nasdaq was the worst performing major average, while the S&P ended the week slightly lower despite capping off a fresh record close on Thursday. The big market story was the cyclical rotation that gained further traction at the expense of the momentum and AI trades. The rotation was tabbed to factors including the less hawkish FOMC takeaways, a looming 2026 fiscal impulse with OBBA, taxes, and deprecation expense tailwinds, as well as some company-specific updates around the AI trade.

Dec 11

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Tech was a notable underperformer with disappointing results from Oracle exacerbating the negative sentiment surrounding AI infrastructure. Additionally, Google lagged after the (expected) rollout of the new GPT 5.2 model, given recent enthusiasm over its Gemini 3 release.

Dec 10

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending just a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 105bps, 67bps, and 33bps respectively. FOMC in focus today with a 25 bp rate cut, three dissents, forward guidance tweak and plans to purchase $40B/month in Treasury bills. Elsewhere, Q3 ECI rose 80bps, a bit below Q2's 90bps and just shy of consensus. GE Vernova providing some positive AI-related commentary ahead of Oracle and Broadcom results. Sanguine conference commentary on US consumer, buyback tailwinds among other highlights of the day.

Dec 9

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, off best levels. There were not a lot of big directional drivers with the market largely in waiting mode for FOMC on Wednesday and some key AI events, including AVGO and ORCL earnings and a new OpenAI model. Analyst day and sell-side conference presentations were driving some of the more notable movers

Dec 8

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Rate backup was one of the bigger stories for today as a hawkish cut has become the consensus for Wednesday's FOMC. AI was another key press theme over the weekend, which included focus on a positive broader market sentiment given reasonable valuations, and AI optimism.

Dec 5

US equities were higher this week, adding to last week's gains which saw the S&P 500 post its seventh straight positive month in November. November ADP notably undershot expectations to the lowest since Mar-23. There were some positive takeaways from high-profile tech earnings this week along with another wave of AI-related partnerships and announcements.

Dec 4

There was very little readthrough in Thursday trading as stocks struggled for overall direction with much more seemingly going on beneath the surface. The shift from micro to macro has been the story this week with a busy sell-side conference calendar and more tech and retail earnings. In addition, when it comes to the key inputs for the market narrative, there are lots of moving pieces as of late surrounding the Fed, AI, the labor market and consumers.

Dec 3

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading though stocks ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 86bbps, 30bps, and 17bps respectively. Themes of the day highlighted in mixed headlines regarding Microsoft customer AI adoption versus Marvell data center growth. Softening labor market, support for more Fed cuts, also highlighted in November ADP private payrolls falling 32K versus expectations to increase by~10K, while Industrial Production met, and ISM Services and S&P Services PMI came in ahead. December FOMC decision on deck for next week, with probably of additional 25bp cut just below 90%.

Dec 2

US equities higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, though off best levels. Busy on the AI front. Biggest takeaway seems to revolve around how disruption/upheaval headlines have become increasingly embedded in the broader AI narrative and are driving more volatility/dispersion in the price action.

Dec 1

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session in the wake of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The market shook off a bit of the morning's risk-off bias tabbed to upward pressure on JGB yields amid ramping BoJ tightening expectations, as well as ongoing Bitcoin weakness following a nearly 20% decline last month.

Nov 28

US equities built on the prior Friday's bounce and rallied sharply over the final week of November, ending higher for a fifth straight session. December rate cut odds pushed above 80% (after briefly falling below 30% in the prior week) as Waller and Daley followed Williams from late last week with dovish leaning Fedspeak. Claims data continued to offer a more optimistic assessment of the labor market amid continued concerns about incremental softening.

Nov 26

US equities closed higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 67bps, 69bps, and 82bps respectively. The Big story today was momentum factor outperformance following recent selloff. Elsewhere, Initial claims printed at 216K for week-ended 22-Nov, better than the 230K consensus, while continuing claims came in at 1.960M, below the 1.964M consensus. Treasury's auction of $44B in 7-year notes tailed by 0.6 bp, following Tuesday's tailing 5Y sale.

Nov 25

US equities ended the day higher, trading near beat levels. Big tech was once again in focus, with Nvidia a notable decliner amid competition concerns from Alphabet. Today also saw a lower rate backdrop as it was reported that Hasset was the front runner to replace Powell as the Fed chair

Nov 24

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. On the Fed front, December easing odds continue to tick higher with San Francisco's Daly the latest to publicly get behind a cut.

Nov 21

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 down for a second week in the past three, and Nasdaq down for a third-straight week. Stocks finished the week lower with the momentum selloff the big focus amidst ongoing AI scrutiny/skepticism. Nvidia posted a beat and raise, but that was not enough to offset broader AI fears.