UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A fiscal can’t can’t?'

France’s second-round legislative election produced an unexpected result, with the far right Rassemblement National pushed into third place. This highlights again a market problem—politics is becoming more important to markets, but opinion polls are less reliable as a guide to outcomes. Polarization means financial institutions try to strike a neutral tone—“opinion polls suggest” rather than “we believe that”, but if polls are less reliable market mispricing is more common.