7-16-25 Bullish Sentiment is a Contrarian Indicator | Before the Bell

Markets are doing what the markets do best: Consolidating following a rally. Elevated momentum signals are flipping back and forth (not uncommon), and relative strength is coming down from over-bought levels. This is keeping markets from making much of an advance. The back-and-forth debate over Fed rate cuts is also making things uncertain: The markets want a rate cut, but if inflation shows up in the form of tariff impacts on PPI numbers, that news will weigh on markets today (the report to be published after this post). None of this mitigates the risk of a 3-5% correction as early as mid-August. One of the recent "propellants" for the markets from recent lows was the under-weighting by asset managers in Tech prior to Liberation Day. Now playing catch up, they're buying up those shares to rebalance portfolios, and that's resulted in a huge surge in positioning and sentiment. (Remember, sentiment is a contrarian indicator: When everyone is bullish, and everyone has bought, that leaves a vaccuum beneath stocks, where the next buyers will be in a correction). We think we'll see that happen sometime in August or September. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://youtu.be/4k2AfV8moZ8 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #BullishSentiment #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing