About this episode
Markets barely achieved a positive close on Wednesday, to create a string of positive action for the first five trading days in January. (Markets are closed today in honor of the late President Jimmy Carter.) There's a market consolidation underway, with the 20-DMA and 50-DMA about to cross. Lance & Michael discuss the Fed's sentiment shift about inflation, and the non-corellation between interest rates and inflation. The Fed may have cut interest rates, but markets have raised them; the actual effects of Fed rate cuts are deflationary. Fed policy is still restrictive; economy is back to "normal" with higher rates. Lance & Michael discuss interest rates: The cost of money. Unlike short- and medium-term gyrations in stock prices, which are often due to changes in investor sentiment, the bond market has a much more fundamental grounding. Interest rates, representing the cost of money, strongly impact economic activity and inflation in a highly leveraged economy like ours. Thus, economic growth, inflation, and Treasury bond yields are highly correlated. The death-defying Dollar as fiat currency (what is currency?) Gold is not a currency; the Dollar vs the Euro. What is driving sentiment? a.) Deficits & Debt, and b.) inflation. NOTE: 1/3 of inflation is shelter costs, data collection for which is flawed. SEG-1: Markets Eke Out Winning First Five Days of January SEG-2: The Fed's Sentiment Shift About Inflation SEG-3: Explaining our Fundamental Bond Model SEG-4: The Death-defying US Dollar Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx9jVRa0-gc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Why Are Bond Yields Rising?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/why-are-bond-yields-rising/ "Curb Your Enthusiasm" In 2025" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "DMA Crossovers Are Not a Death Knell," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCfM5mTOJBc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Market Reversal: Implications Now," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56z2LmMIvrQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JanuaryBarometer #DMACrossOver #DownwardPricePressure #Finance2025 #BondYields #FinancialMarkets #InterestRates #EconomicTrends #EconomicOutlook #MarketReversal #InvestmentInsights #StockMarket2025 #EconomicForecast #FinancialStrategies #WealthManagement #MarketTrends #Complacency #MarketRisk #OverBought #OverSold #20DMA #50DMA #MakretRally #Expectations #MarketIndicators #CurbExpectations #StockMarket2025 #Expectations #MarketIndicators #CurbExpectations #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing