About this episode
(10/16/23) The Israel & Ukraine wars are creating international fear, while domestically, US consumer sentiment is sinking as economic realities of higher interest rates and student loan payments resume. Big Banks' earnings season beginning this week; generally, earnings are down about 3% when Tech and Energy are not included; market futures are flat this morning after declining performance last Thursday and Friday; year-end repositioning is getting underway; the impact of geo-political outlooks; economic reports & sampling methodology; the smaller the sample, the less-reliable the results. ADP Employment Report vs BLS shows large divergences: Which one is correct? WW3: possible, but how probable? Will there or Won't there be a recession? Target vs Dollar General: Consumer spending stratified; the bottom 80% of consumers are struggling. what are the smartest guys in the room saying? The risk of following the analysts: What if they're wrong? Navigating markets w conflicting data; the fallacy of passive investing. What happens when sellers aren't willing to sell...until prices go up. What makes markets work. Too fearful = near the bottom; too greedy = near the top. Dichotomies of Stapes vs Discretionary, algorithm-driven markets; headlines vs market positioning. SEG-1: Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: Israel, Ukraine, & Domestic Economics SEG-2: The Impact of Geopolitical Outlooks SEG-3: Recession: Will there or won't there? SEG-4: The Difficulty of Navigating Markets w Conflicting Data Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEdbEYdVao0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Managers' Repositioning to Drive Markets to Year's End" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKhAebIm9J8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Life Gets In the Way of Retirement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81e323A2kv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Watch our past Candid Coffee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdi_-TQpNb8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugq7q4XzOcad3oSN5Z1Zd-Z&index=1&t=2s ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #IsraelWar #UkraineWar #MarketSentiment #Employment #Geopolitics #EconomicRecession #Markets #Money #Investing