Is the Fed in a Trap? (9/28/23)

(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession. GDP revisions are rear-view data: Is the Fed in a trap? 7% interest rates are ludicrous; putting "crisis" into perspective. Why things WERE different in 1995: The Yield Curve was not inverted, and did not invert until 1998. Market commentary: Tough week for markets with few drivers and "programmic" selling. Markets are in position to boom ahead of weaker performance next year. Price drives performance and narrative; what's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Group think vs group stink. SEG-1: What's Driving the Markets Now SEG-2: Revising GDP: Is the Fed in a Trap? SEG-3: Why Things WERE Different in 1995 SEG-4: Price Drives the Narrative: What's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We Heading for 7% Interest?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "A Crisis Is Coming: Who Is Swimming Naked?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crisis-is-coming-who-is-swimming-naked/ "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-show/ "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GDP #GDI #VIX #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #EconomicSlowdown #InterestRates #JamieDimon #YearEndFinancialPlanning #Markets #Money #Investing